If peace talks fail, the Russian military has several options to advance into Ukraine through northern, central, and southern invasion routes. On the northern route, Russia could advance toward Kiev along 150 miles of road through Novye Yurkovichi, Russia; Chernihiv, Ukraine; and into Kiev, Ukraine. Russia could also advance via a 200-mile thrust through Troebortnoe, Russia; Konotop, Ukraine; Nizhyn, Ukraine; and into Kiev.

SOURCE: "Russia’s Possible Invasion of Ukraine" by Philip G. Wasielewski and CSIS's Seth G. Jones.

Vast new sources of publicly available information combined with Artificial Intelligence/Machine Learning capabilities have revolutionized the way we think about data and insight. An open-source, cloud-based, AI-enabled reporting capability for the intelligence community could save an IC analyst as much as 45 working days a year by some estimates.

SOURCE: "Move Over JARVIS, Meet OSCAR" by CSIS's Emily Harding.

A multi-decade Russian effort has reduced natural gas transit through Ukraine from over 140 billion cubic meters (bcm) in 1998 to less than 42 bcm in 2021—a 70 percent reduction. While Ukraine is no longer the main corridor for delivering Russian gas to Europe, a physical interruption of gas flows would be significant for certain countries, including Slovakia, Austria, and Italy.

SOURCE: "Can European Energy Cope with a Conflict in Ukraine?" by CSIS's Nikos Tsafos.

China’s vaccine diplomacy is expected to rise to new heights, with a target of 600 million vaccines to be donated to African countries—a jump from the approximately 180 million delivered so far. This initiative will also yield signature ceremonies for deals to deliver 400 million locally manufactured doses. China could become Africa’s largest source of vaccines if these two targets are met by the end of 2022.

SOURCE: "What to Watch in Sub-Saharan Africa in 2022" by the CSIS Africa Program.