Council on Foreign Relations
Daily News Brief
January 21, 2022
Top of the Agenda
Blinken, Lavrov Hold ‘Frank and Substantive’ Talks in Geneva
The United States and Russia weighed possible negotiated outcomes (NYT) to security tensions in Eastern Europe during talks in Geneva today between U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov. Blinken called the discussion “frank and substantive,” and both officials said the United States will provide written responses to Russia’s security demands next week.
 
While Lavrov told reporters Russia has “no plans” to attack Ukraine (Al Jazeera), Ukraine’s military intelligence said that Russia is increasing arms shipments (AFP) to separatist-controlled areas of Ukraine’s east. U.S. President Joe Biden said that if “any assembled Russian units move across the Ukrainian border,” it will trigger a severe economic response (Bloomberg).
Analysis
“[Blinken] should search for a face-saving way for [Russian President Vladimir] Putin to back down (while no doubt claiming victory on Russian news bulletins). War can yet be avoided, but time is running out,” the Economist writes.
 
“The U.S. commitment to peace and diplomatic resolutions during this time has been commendable, but in focusing on diplomacy without a commensurate emphasis on hard-power tools, the Biden administration missed an opportunity to head off a crisis on Europe’s eastern flank,” the Lawfare Institute’s Alexander Vindman and Dominic Cruz Bustillos write for Foreign Affairs.
Politics and Protest at the Olympics​
The Beijing Winter Olympics, which kick off in two weeks, have already stirred debate over boycotts of the games. CFR traces the history of governments and athletes making political statements at the Olympics.

Pacific Rim
Biden to Hold Videoconference With Japan’s Kishida
U.S. President Biden and Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida will hold their first formal talks today (AP) and are expected to agree to regular ministerial talks (Kyodo) on economic and environmental issues.
 
This Backgrounder unpacks the U.S.-Japan security alliance.
 
Philippines: Twitter suspended more than three hundred accounts (Rappler) from supporters of presidential hopeful Ferdinand “Bongbong” Marcos Jr. for violating rules on manipulation and spam.

South and Central Asia
Taliban Delegation to Attend Talks in Norway
The Taliban’s visit with representatives from Norway and other countries will run from Sunday to Tuesday and is expected to focus (AFP) on Afghanistan’s humanitarian situation and human rights.
 
This photo essay provides a look at Afghanistan’s humanitarian crisis.
 
India: India’s military contacted China’s military to seek the return (Economic Times) of a teenager whom India said was abducted near the countries’ shared border.

Middle East and North Africa
Report: U.S. Bombed Syrian Dam on No-Strike List
The New York Times reported that in 2017, the United States bombed a dam that had been placed on a no-strike list due to the possibility that its destruction could kill tens of thousands of civilians. The bombing came at the height of the war against the self-declared Islamic State.
 
Yemen: An air strike destroyed a prison (AFP) in the Houthi stronghold of Saada, the rebels and the International Committee of the Red Cross said. Many people are believed to have been killed or injured. The Saudi-led coalition that opposes the Houthis has not claimed responsibility for the attack.
This Day in History: January 21, 1924
First leader of the Soviet Union and architect of the Bolshevik Revolution Vladimir Lenin dies at the age of fifty-four after a long illness. Joseph Stalin soon emerges as the new Soviet leader.

Sub-Saharan Africa
Africa CDC: COVID-19 Vaccine Donations Should Have At Least Three-Month Shelf Life
John Nkengasong, director of the Africa Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (Africa CDC), said millions of vaccines that countries have donated to African nations were sent just before their expiration date. He called for donations (Al Jazeera) to have a shelf life of three to six months.  
 
For Foreign Affairs, Abhijit Banerjee and Esther Duflo write that rich countries need to make smarter investments in poorer ones to stem the spread of COVID-19.
 
South Africa: Researchers warned that new variants of the coronavirus could emerge from animals after lions and pumas in a zoo showed severe COVID-19 symptoms (Bloomberg) after contact with asymptomatic humans.

Europe
U.S. Charges Four Belarusian Officials With Air Piracy
U.S. prosecutors said the officials conspired to commit aircraft piracy (NYT) last year when they reportedly forced a Ryanair jet to land in Minsk so a dissident could be arrested.

Americas
Mexico’s Total Murders Fell, Femicides Rose in 2021
Murders fell 3.6 percent (Reuters) from their 2020 level, while femicides, or gender-based killings of women, rose 2.7 percent, according to government statistics.
 
Venezuela: The U.S. Department of Treasury extended a ban on transactions (Bloomberg) of bonds held by Citgo, the U.S.-based refining arm of Venezuela’s state oil company, for one year. Venezuelan opposition leader Juan Guaido, who controls Citgo, celebrated the measure.

United States
Biden Administration Directs Federal Agencies to Pay $15 Minimum Wage
The Office of Personnel Management directed agencies to adopt a minimum wage (Axios) of $15 per hour. The guidelines will affect nearly seventy thousand people.
Friday Editor’s Pick
Rest of World talks to workers in India’s tech sector about how success in the industry depends on caste rather than merit.
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