Policy Currents | The latest RAND updates
View in Browser: [link removed]
** RAND research and commentary on the issues that matter most
------------------------------------------------------------
Jan 20, 2022
Deterring Russia - Now and Later
As the Kremlin appears poised to launch an attack against Ukraine, U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken will meet with his Russian counterpart tomorrow in hopes of de-escalating the situation.
In a new RAND report released today about long-term competition between the United States and Russia, researchers conduct a statistical analysis of thousands of interactions between America and its competitors and explore numerous case studies of previous crises that involved Moscow.
Although the report is not about the crisis diplomacy unfolding today, the authors note several valuable insights from their research that shed light on current tensions:
* For years, the United States has placed Ukraine and other former Soviet states somewhere between full NATO membership and acceding to a tacit Russian sphere of influence, the authors say. Their study suggests that, historically, such half measures have contributed to situations in which competitors pursue hostile activities, including military intimidation.
* Russia is concerned about U.S. missile placement and the location of military exercises in Europe that involve American troops. The report suggests that such issues may present opportunities for negotiation, as Russia is likely to value U.S. concessions in these areas. But it's unclear whether these would be enough to alter Russian behavior now that Moscow has staked out maximalist positions.
* In the event that Russia does invade Ukraine, the United States may be willing to position additional forces in Europe. The authors' findings suggest that doing so would likely help deter further Russian aggression. However, such new deployments should be part of a broader strategy to support U.S. allies and key partners.
Read more: [link removed]
Citizen Science Can Help Make Communities Safer, Stronger
From aiding nuclear disaster response in Fukushima, Japan, to exposing lead-ridden water in Flint, Michigan, citizen science has a long tradition of helping communities respond to and recover from crises. To support these efforts, RAND researchers published a do-it-yourself guide for budding citizen scientists. This toolkit gives people an inside look at science, teaching them about research tools and techniques. And when disaster strikes, citizen science can increase community resilience and bring people together when they need it most.
Read more: [link removed]
Protecting the U.S. Blood Supply
In 2016, a RAND report identified one hypothetical scenario that could "critically compromise" the U.S. blood supply: a pandemic. This risk became a reality when COVID-19 hit, and the situation is getting worse during the Omicron wave. The authors identified several recommendations for safeguarding the blood supply and helping it withstand future shocks.
Read more: [link removed]
How the Pandemic Affected Military Recruitment and Retention
As COVID-19 first began to spread throughout the United States, it triggered stay-at-home orders and a sharp rise in unemployment. Did changes like these affect the armed services' ability to recruit and retain members? To find out, RAND researchers examined personnel data for the Army, Marine Corps, Navy, and Air Force during the first six months of the pandemic.
Read more: [link removed]
A Look at U.S. Capacity-Building Efforts in Africa
For two decades, the United States has heavily engaged in building the security capacity of allies and partners in Africa. These efforts were initially focused on countering terrorism, but they have taken on new importance in the context of U.S.-China competition. A new RAND report assesses how institutional capacity-building programs fit into America's broader strategic framework.
Read more: [link removed]
Describing (De)Radicalization
RAND researchers recently interviewed former extremists and their family members to learn more about what leads people to join - and later leave - extremist groups. In a new piece for RAND Art + Data, artist-in-residence Gabrielle Mérite explores these personal stories, creating a series of "visual essays" that illuminate the paths in and out of radicalization.
Read more: [link removed]
** Trending Reports
------------------------------------------------------------
COVID-19 and Workers' Compensation
[link removed]
The Role of Education Benefits in Supporting Veterans as They Transition to Civilian Life
[link removed]
** RAND in the News
------------------------------------------------------------
As War Looms Larger, What Are Russia's Military Options in Ukraine?
The Economist
[link removed]
The Rise of A.I. Fighter Pilots
The New Yorker
[link removed]
Study of Health Woes in Puerto Rico After Hurricane Maria Shows Effects of Climate Change
USA Today
[link removed]
** Subscribe to the Policy Currents Podcast
------------------------------------------------------------
You already get the latest insights from RAND in your inbox. Why not your earbuds?
Policy Currents is available as a weekly podcast. New episodes every Friday.
Subscribe now: [link removed]
** Follow RAND
------------------------------------------------------------
The RAND Corporation is a nonprofit institution that helps improve policy and decisionmaking through research and analysis.
[link removed]
Twitter
[link removed]
Facebook
[link removed]
LinkedIn
[link removed]
Instagram
[link removed]
Privacy statement
[link removed]
Unsubscribe
[link removed]
Manage your subscriptions
[link removed]
RAND Corporation
1776 Main Street
Santa Monica, CA 90401-3208
RAND is a registered trademark.
