U.S. President Joe Biden said yesterday that Russian President Vladimir Putin will likely “move in” (White House) on Ukraine and that Russia would be “held accountable” if it invades. Some Republican lawmakers criticized Biden for implying that a minor incursion would produce a different response than a full-scale invasion. White House Press Secretary Jen Psaki later said any kind of Russian invasion would be met by a “swift, severe, and united response” (Politico) from the United States and its allies. 

A Kremlin spokesperson called Biden’s threats of sanctions “destabilizing” (Moscow Times). Separately, a State Department official said Washington greenlit transfers (AFP) of U.S. weapons from Baltic countries to Ukraine. Meanwhile, U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken continues a diplomatic tour through Europe and will meet with Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov tomorrow.   

North Korean leader Kim Jong-un threatened to resume “all temporarily suspended” activities, apparently referring to (Yonhap) nuclear and intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) tests that have been suspended since late 2017. 
 
Taiwan: The head of Taiwan’s representative office in the United States, Bi-khim Hsiao, told Nikkei that Taiwan hopes to be part of the Indo-Pacific economic framework that the Biden administration is developing.
 
CFR’s James M. Lindsay and Lynn Kuok discuss Biden’s Indo-Pacific strategy on The President’s Inbox podcast.

Authorities are investigating (Dawn) the explosion near the city of Lahore’s Anarkali Bazaar. At least three people were killed and twenty people were wounded.
 
Kazakhstan: President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev dismissed Kazakhstan’s defense minister (RFE/RL) over the handling of mass protests in which security forces fired on demonstrators. Parliament also stripped former President Nursultan Nazarbayev of his lifetime chairmanship of the country’s Security Council.
 
For Foreign Affairs, Nargis Kassenova looks at Kazakhstan after the Nazarbayev era.

Iran brought a draft (Al-Monitor) of a twenty-year cooperation agreement with Russia to yesterday’s meeting between Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi and Putin, though no announcements have been made about new pacts between the countries.
 
UAE/Turkey: Amid its currency crisis, Turkey deepened its détente (WSJ) with the United Arab Emirates (UAE) in a currency swap deal equivalent to almost $5 billion.

Nnamdi Kanu said the case against him, which included eight new charges, lacked merit (Reuters). A different court awarded Kanu $2.4 million in damages yesterday because security forces broke into his father’s house in 2017.
 
Liberia: A stampede at a religious event near the capital of Monrovia killed dozens of people (Al Jazeera).

The countries’ defense and foreign ministers meet virtually today and are expected to discuss (SCMP) a defense cooperation agreement.
 
CFR’s David Sacks explains how Japan and its ally the United States can prepare for Chinese aggression against Taiwan.

A refinery leaked more than six thousand barrels of oil (BBC) off the coast of Lima. Authorities said the spill happened when a tanker unloading oil at the refinery was hit by waves following the eruption in Tonga on Saturday.
 
Mexico: The Inter-American Court of Human Rights ruled that the Mexican government committed serious errors (Reuters) in its probe of activist Digna Ochoa’s 2001 death and that it must continue to investigate it. 

Democrats’ attempt to change filibuster rules to pass the voting rights legislation failed 52-48 (CNN). Some Democrats have raised concerns that new and proposed state voting restrictions threaten the United States’ ability (Axios) to hold free and fair elections.
 
The CIA found (NYT) that most cases of a mysterious ailment known as Havana Syndrome were not the result of a campaign by a foreign power and could be explained by environmental causes, undiagnosed conditions, or stress. It is still investigating two dozen unexplained cases.