Scholars at AEI have never been shy about challenging the conventional wisdom regarding some of the nation's most controversial and significant issues. Today, as many political observers worry that America is on the verge of civil war, Ross Douthat urges us to reconsider whether many Americans are "willing to put their lives, not just their Twitter rhetoric, on the line for causes that currently divide our country." While he acknowledges that the country is more polarized now than in the recent past, Douthat argues that many of those sounding the alarm of impending national violence suffer "from a serious liberal-bias problem" or present brittle arguments. "If your definition of civil war implies that we are always just a few mass shootings or violent protests away from the brink," he writes, "then you don't have a definition at all: You just have a license for perpetual alarmism."

Similarly, Dalibor Rohac objects to "the unqualified embrace" of moral panics, such as climate alarmism and COVID-19 catastrophism. He contends that the catastrophic view dominating so much of our public discourse "admits little ambiguity, uncertainty, and trade-offs between different policies" and blinds us to the overall health and effectiveness of our institutions.

Also regarding climate change, Paul H. Kupiec addresses what he considers overheated fears about the threats that weather-related events pose to the financial sector. This reality check is important, he argues, because the Biden administration seeks to use climate change risk as an opportunity "to effectively nationalize and thoroughly politicize the financial system."

Bronwyn Howell addresses dystopic anxieties about artificial intelligence (AI), arguing that AI pessimists aiming to protect workers overlook historical trends in innovation and fail to recognize how the new technology could actually benefit workers. Just as digital spreadsheets created demand for more accountants, Howell says, AI is creating new opportunities.

This is not to say that AEI scholars don't see any threats looming on the horizon. Michael Mazza predicts that 2022 could be this century's "most turbulent year yet" for relations between Taiwan and the People's Republic of China. An auspicious Chinese Communist Party's 20th Party Congress and a poor showing for Tsai Ing-wen in Taiwan's local elections might make for a perfect storm that pushes Taiwan closer to the mainland.