2022 is a Big Election Year
In
2022 at the federal level, all 435 seats in the U.S. House of Representatives
and 34 Senate seats will be on the ballot. Since World War II, in mid-term elections,
the president’s party loses an average of 26 seats in the House and four in
the Senate. A similar outcome in 2022 would change the party leadership of both
congressional houses. This is not unusual; after the Carter administration, no
president has seen his party control both Houses for his entire term.
In addition, there are two factors that will make 2022 interesting
and probably confusing: first, redistricting (which follows each decennial census)
and second, partially because of redistricting, is the number of retirements from each party.
We will not dwell on the impact redistricting could have on
the makeup of the House. Regarding retirements, out of the 221 Democrats currently
in the House, to date 25 have announced their retirement or intention to run for
another office: four are running for the Senate; one for governor; one for attorney
general; and one, U.S. Rep. Karen Bass (D-Calif.), is running for Mayor of Los
Angeles. There are currently 213 Republicans in the House and 12 are planning
to retire or run for another office: four are running for the Senate (three of
which for the open Missouri Senate seat), one for governor, one for attorney general and one for Secretary of State.
In the Senate, which is divided 50-50, four senators have announced
retirements: three Republicans from Missouri, Pennsylvania and North Carolina, and one Democrat from Vermont.
The year of 2022 both legislatively and politically will not be dull.