New York By The Numbers: Monthly Economic and Fiscal Outlook


** New York by the Numbers
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** Monthly Economic and Fiscal Outlook
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By NYC Comptroller Brad Lander
Andrew McWilliam, Director of Economic Research
Click here to read this newsletter on the Comptroller's website. ([link removed])


** No. 61 - January 10th, 2022
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** A Message from the Comptroller
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Dear New Yorkers,

I’m honored to begin serving you as New York City Comptroller -- and excited to join the team in our Budget Bureau that’s been putting together these great economic newsletters over the past two years (credits at the end of the newsletter). I’ve long been a regular reader!

Data from real-time sources (Google Mobility, Open Table, Kastle Systems, and Broadway) show that New Yorkers cut back on in-person activities during the Omicron surge over the holidays, with declines in office occupancy, restaurant reservations, mass transit, and other activities (this weekend, I went to the Holiday Train Show at the New York Botanical Garden, which got off to a strong start around Thanksgiving, but then plummeted in mid-December to 30% of its normal attendance). It’s unclear whether these activities will rebound with the end of the holidays or will remain low as the Omicron COVID wave crests.

There’s still reason for cautious optimism. Labor, real estate, and financial markets have continued to grow in recent months. And the Omicron wave in South Africa crested fairly rapidly.

We’ll keep a close eye on the data and its impact on New York City’s recovery in the coming months.

Sincerely,

Brad Lander


** Labor Markets
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* Following strong growth in October, New York City’s private employment rose by just 12,000 in November. Recent growth has been strong in Information, and Transportation and Warehousing (Table 1).


** Table 1: Seasonally Adjusted New York City Employment, by Industry
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(1,000s) Seasonally Adjusted NYC Employment November 2021 Change From
Industry: Feb. ’20 Apr. ’20 Oct. ’21 Nov. ’21 Feb. ’20 Apr. ’20 Oct. ’21
Total Private 4,095 3,173 3,658 3,670 -425 497 12
Financial Activities 487 469 457 456 -31 -13 -1
Information 229 205 220 225 -4 20 5
Professional and Business Services 778 688 729 731 -47 43 2
Educational Services 256 230 232 233 -22 3 1
Health Care and Social Assistance 819 711 802 799 -21 88 -4
Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation 96 52 75 73 -23 21 -2
Accommodation and Food Services 373 108 247 247 -127 139 0
Other Services 195 130 161 162 -33 33 1
Retail Trade 345 231 299 301 -45 70 2
Wholesale Trade 139 109 121 122 -17 14 1
Transportation and Warehousing 135 99 113 120 -15 21 7
Construction 162 88 136 135 -27 47 -1
Manufacturing 65 39 53 53 -12 14 0
SOURCE: U.S. Dept. of Labor, private employment seasonally adjusted by NYC OMB
* Initial New York City unemployment insurance claims fell to 21,730 in November 2021, down from 23,386 in October, staying below the pre-pandemic levels for the second month in a row (Chart 1). There were 21,636 initial claims in November 2019 and claims peaked at 576,818 in April 2020.


** Chart 1
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SOURCE: NY Dept. of Labor


** Real Estate Markets
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* Data from Douglas Elliman show the higher-end brokered Manhattan apartment market strengthened once again in November. Average asking rents per square foot rose to $71.24 in November, up from $70.62 in October, and the vacancy rate fell to 2.09% (Table 2).
* New leases fell to 3,299, the lowest since June 2020, and inventories fell to 6,187, the lowest since April 2020.


** Table 2: Douglas Elliman Rental Matrix, Trends in High-End Residential Apartment Rentals
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Year Month Rental Price per Sqft. # New Leases Listing Inventory Vacancy Rate
2020 March $70.10 2,638 4,258 2.13%
April $74.20 1,407 4,714 2.42%
May $67.82 2,190 7,420 2.88%
June $65.00 3,171 10,789 3.67%
July $64.39 4,949 13,117 4.33%
August $62.97 4,990 15,025 5.10%
September $62.47 5,018 15,923 5.75%
October $61.38 5,641 16,145 6.14%
November $59.05 4,015 15,130 6.14%
December $62.12 5,459 13,718 5.52%
2021 January $62.33 6,255 12,447 5.33%
February $60.54 6,561 23,983* 11.79%*
March $62.25 4,986 19,633 11.25%
April $62.34 9,087 20,743 11.60%
May $64.94 9,491 19,025 7.59%
June $64.97 9,642 11,853 6.69%
July $67.73 7,656 11,794 6.07%
August $68.13 8,201 8,362 3.23%
September $70.31 5,241 6,761 2.34%
October $70.62 4,395 6,755 2.11%
November $71.24 3,299 6,187 2.09%
SOURCE: Elliman Report, November 2021, Manhattan, Brooklyn and Queens Rentals.
*NOTE: 2021 data reflect expanded collection of listing data
* November data from Streeteasy.com show the number of apartments available for rent citywide fell to 27,571, down from 30,661 in October (Chart 2). Apartment inventories have declined steadily across 15 months from a peak of over 75,000 in August 2020 and have fallen below the pre-pandemic 29,310 in November 2019.
* Median asking rents rose to $2,727 in November, from $2,700 in October, and well above last winter’s levels.


** Chart 2
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SOURCE: Streeteasy.com
* CoStar reports roughly 124 million square feet of office space is available for lease in New York City as of January 1^st, 2022, down slightly from nearly 126 million on December 1^st, 2021. Available space remains close to the peak of 128 million square feet recorded at the end of the second quarter of 2021 (Chart 3).
* Average asking rents remain at roughly $65 per square foot at the start of 2022. CoStar predicts a recovery to pre-pandemic rents of $69 per square foot in the third quarter of 2023.


** Chart 3
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SOURCE: CoStar


** Return to Office
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* The latest security card data from Kastle Systems show New York City area office occupancy rebounded to 17.6% the week ending Wednesday, January 5^th, up from a recent low of 10.6% the week of December 29^th (Chart 4). Office occupancy across the country plunged over the holidays and has yet to fully recover.


** Chart 4
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SOURCE: Kastle Systems, weekdays excluding Federal holidays through January 5^th, 2021.
* The latest Google mobility data show time spent at New York City workplaces, on transit and other activities outside the home dropped dramatically over the holidays. As of year end, time spent at workplaces was down 50% from pre-pandemic levels, the lowest levels of 2021 (Chart 5). It is unclear whether time outside the home will rebound with the end of the holidays or will continue to fall as the Omicron COVID wave crests.


** Chart 5
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SOURCE: GPS mobility data indexed to 1/3/2020 to 2/6/2020, from Google COVID-19 Community Mobility Reports.
* Data from the Current Population Survey show the share of New Yorkers working from home due to COVID inched up to 23% in November, from 22% in October, even as that share continued to fall nationally and statewide (Chart 6).


** Chart 6
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SOURCE: Current Population Survey, COVID Supplement
* Amid the holiday season and the Omicron surge, average weekday ridership on the subways, excluding holidays, dropped in December to 2.95 million. MTA bus ridership also fell to about 1.29 million per weekday. Average weekday subway ridership was 55% of pre-pandemic December ridership, a slight drop-off from November, while bus ridership improved slightly to 65% of pre-pandemic levels (Chart 7).
* Average weekday ridership on the Long Island Rail Road (LIRR) and Metro-North Railroad (MNR) also lost ground in December, slipping back to 48% and 44% of pre-pandemic levels, respectively.
* More recently, over the first three weekdays of 2022, subway ridership averaged 2.24 million, or about 42% of pre-pandemic ridership.


** Chart 7
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SOURCE: Metropolitan Transportation Authority, Day-by-Day Ridership Numbers.
NOTE: Excludes federal holidays.


** Business and Tourism
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* Wall Street profits continued to strengthen in the third quarter of 2021. Pre-tax profits rose to $13.9 billion in Q3, up from $13.0 billion in the second quarter of 2021, and up from $10.0 billion in the third quarter of 2020 (Chart 8).


** Chart 8
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SOURCE: Intercontinental Exchange, NYSE Member Firms Dealing with the Public
* Broadway revenue rebounded to $26.3 million for the week ending January 2^nd and attendance rose to 179,036 following COVID-related shutdowns of theatre productions during Christmas week (Table 3).
* Since reopening in the fall, Broadway performance improved steadily through the week of December 12^th, but December is typically Broadway’s strongest month. In December 2019 (not shown), weekly revenue averaged over $43 million, and weekly attendance was over 300,000, implying Broadway is still far from a full recovery.


** Table 3: Broadway Performance Metrics
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Week Ending Revenue Attendance % Capacity Performances Shows
10/24/2021 $22,164,602 176,083 85% 174 26
10/31/2021 $19,663,438 168,169 78% 183 27
11/7/2021 $22,854,595 193,303 82% 207 30
11/14/2021 $25,565,641 214,681 86% 214 31
11/21/2021 $25,076,830 212,819 80% 227 32
11/28/2021 $32,543,570 238,354 83% 245 33
12/5/2021 $26,214,735 210,795 83% 217 29
12/12/2021 $30,533,809 240,602 85% 235 32
12/19/2021 $22,511,627 184,227 83% 191 31
12/26/2021 $14,069,739 100,956 75% 118 22
1/2/2022 $26,306,652 179,036 74% 201 20
SOURCE: The Broadway League
* Data from OpenTable shows early January New York City restaurant reservations are down 50% from pre-pandemic levels, but have rebounded from Christmas week, when they were down as much as 60%. Reservations remain well below early December when they were down 40% (Chart 9).


** Chart 9
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SOURCE: OpenTable.com
* Demand for New York City hotel rooms rose to almost 2.5 million in November 2021, up nearly 200,000 from October, but remains down about 25% from November 2019 (Chart 10).
* Revenue per available hotel room (RevPAR) rose sharply in November to $182, up from $160 in October, despite November declines in previous years.


** Chart 10
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SOURCE: CoStar
NOTE: Some fraction of pandemic period revenues is attributable to the City’s temporary housing of the homeless.
* More travelers returned to airports in November. Nationwide, air travel volume was 16% below 2019, the first time monthly volume surpassed 80% of pre-pandemic levels since the pandemic began (Chart 11). More recently, despite surging COVID cases and flight cancellations, flight volume over the two-week period from Monday, December 20^th through Sunday, January 2^nd was only 17% below the same days in 2019.
* Volume at airports in the New York City region also improved in November – 23% below 2019 levels – but has continued to lag the nation. During the month of October, prior to the lifting of international travel restrictions, international flight volume in the New York City area was down 56% and domestic travel was down 23%.


** Chart 11
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SOURCE: Port Authority of New York and New Jersey and the U.S. Transportation Security Administration.
* Average daily visitors to Times Square rose to 232,941 in November, from 227,180 in October, a 3% increase despite colder temperatures (Chart 12). November pedestrian traffic was close to 70% of pre-pandemic levels.


** Chart 12
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SOURCE: Times Square Alliance, Monthly Indicator Reports.
* Average daily yellow taxi rides steadily climbed through November, reaching 115,660 average daily rides, about half of the 227,654 daily rides recorded in November 2019 (Chart 13).
* Uber and Lyft provided an average of 534,718 daily trips in November, roughly the same volume as in October, and still down 26% from 2019 levels.


** Chart 13
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SOURCE: New York City Taxi and Limousine Commission, Monthly Data Reports.


** City Finances
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* The City’s central treasury balance (funds available for expenditure) stood at $9.48 billion as of Wednesday, January 5^th. At the same time last year, the City had $10.20 billion (Chart 14).
* The Comptroller’s Office’s review of the City’s cash position during the first quarter of FY 2022 and projections for cash balances through March 31^st, 2022, are available here ([link removed]) .


** Chart 14
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SOURCE: Office of the NYC Comptroller


** Contributors
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The Comptroller thanks the following members of the Bureau of Budget for their contributions to this newsletter: Eng-Kai Tan, Bureau Chief - Budget; Steven Giachetti, Director of Revenues; Irina Livshits, Chief, Fiscal Analysis Division; Tammy Gamerman, Director of Budget Research; Manny Kwan, Assistant Budget Chief; Steve Corson, Senior Research Analyst; Selçuk Eren, Senior Economist; Marcia Murphy, Senior Economist; Orlando Vasquez, Economist.

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