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Russian President Vladimir Putin, Chinese Leader Xi Jinping, and then-Iranian President Hassan Rouhani at the Shanghai Cooperation Summit on June 14, 2019 in Bishkek, Kyrgyzstan. (Mikhail Svetlov/Getty Images)
While much attention in global capitals is being paid to Russian troops amassing on Ukraine’s border, Lithuania is the ‘canary in the coal mine’ of global order, argue Hudson Senior Fellows Tod Lindberg and Peter Rough in The Wall Street Journal. NATO member Lithuania faces a united front of Sino-Russian pressure designed to test U.S. and European commitment to their democratic partners. If the U.S. and NATO allies fail to support Lithuania, the impact of Sino-Russian cooperation will be felt far beyond Vilnius. See below for further analysis, and join us next week for a discussion on China’s economic slowdown and the implications for its political stability.
Key Takeaways
From Peter Rough and Tod Lindberg's Wall Street Journal op-ed, "Lithuania is the 'Canary' of World Order"
1. Lithuania's Importance to NATO
Lithuania, a Baltic state of 2.8 million with an outsize role in promoting human rights and democracy, is in the crosshairs of Russia and China. Neither Putin nor Xi have been shy about going after Lithuania. But their recent moves have broader significance, namely testing American and European commitments to allies. Mr. Putin is raising the temperature on Lithuania by absorbing neighboring Belarus into his security sphere and militarizing Kaliningrad, Russia’s territorial exclave on the Baltic Sea. Mr. Xi is waging a campaign of political and economic retaliation.
2. China's Economic Pressure Campaign Against Lithuania
Lithuania drew China’s fury this year for its decision to leave the 17+1 format—the Beijing-designed framework for dealing with Europe—and by allowing the government of Taiwan to open an office for its representation in Vilnius. Beijing declared an import ban on products with goods made in Lithuania—a move damaging to European companies with factories or supply-chain sources in Lithuania.
3. Lithuania Needs US Support Against Gray-Zone Aggression
If Xi and Putin successfully detach Vilnius from NATO and the EU, there would be immediate ramifications in Asia, where China wants to push the U.S. out and establish regional hegemony. Most military strategists identify Taiwan as China’s best first target for confrontation—and thus the essential test of U.S. resolve. But an indirect opening move in the “gray zone” of conflict aimed at Lithuania might have advantages.
If the U.S. and Europe fail to back Lithuania fully, America’s allies and partners in Asia will doubt U.S. commitment. Rather than working closely with Washington, they might become more friendly with China.
Quotes may be edited for clarity and length.
Go Deeper
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