2021 arrived with great hope. Of a virus subsiding. Of a new president uniting. Of an economy rising. But the year itself had other ideas.

Thus, we enter 2022 with many of 2021’s problems remaining. Concern about democracy is high, trust in government and in the opposite political parties is low. 

Here are three things we are watching to size up 2022 and beyond -- each with serious implications for the future of governance and politics.

1. Does the U.S. Senate change, at all? And does that affect how we vote? The Senate’s 60-vote threshold to overcome a filibuster and pass most legislation has become a defining feature, something that benefits the party in the minority but in recent years has stopped the majority party from passing most of its priorities. In coming weeks, Democrats will attempt to change the Senate rules to either erase, or more likely, change, the 60-vote hurdle. 
   
   What would a change mean? One idea on the table is to require senators to actually stay on their feet and speak in order to continue a filibuster -- to make it a “talking filibuster.” To make this happen, Sen. Joe Manchin, D-W.V., must sign on. He has said he’s open to this idea specifically in the past. If he does sign on, Democrats are hopeful that Republicans won’t be able to muster enough passion and stamina to block key legislation for days, weeks or months on end.  
   
   At the top of that list for Democrats is legislation to reform elections and voting laws. Enforce the filibuster as a “talking filibuster,” they believe, and you open the door for passing more legislation. On the other hand, if the Senate does not change how it operates at all, the door is closed to key changes, including those Democrats are hoping to make in elections laws.

2. Who wins in November, and how? Senate rules could change how the upper chamber operates. But the midterm elections will determine who gets to operate the House and Senate. Both chambers could change hands, though the House is the more vulnerable for Republicans. If either or both parties turn red, it is a game-changer for both parties. Republicans would gain power in blocking and crafting legislation and they could – this is key – hold hearings to investigate anything they like, including the Biden administration and Biden campaign.  
   
   We are also watching how Republicans and Democrats wage their fights for power. Republicans have laid out an initial plan of political attack, focusing on a few areas: continued immigration problems at the border, rising crime and rising inflation.  Democrats hope to focus on a then-passed version of Build Back Better, along with touting the bipartisan infrastructure bill. They will charge that Republicans are extremists who are threatening democracy.  Watch to see if either side adds other major issues.

3. Abortion. The Supreme Court’s next decisions and moves on abortion could have significant consequences for health, culture and politics. We expect the justices to rule in early summer on a Missisippi law banning abortion after 15 weeks. This, as a separate case, over a Texas law that effectively bans nearly all abortion, is also working its way through the court system. 
   
   Abortion is an issue with deep moral, philosophical and legal dividing lines. And a political force to be reckoned with. We are watching to see how any decisions by the high court motivates the parties’ bases in particular. It could be yet another factor that affects opinion in this time of wildly and strongly changing political momentum.

HOW PEOPLE FEEL ABOUT JAN. 6, ONE YEAR LATER
By Laura Santhanam, @LauraSanthanam
Health Reporter & Coordinating Producer for Polling

A year after Trump supporters attacked the U.S. Capitol, a majority of Americans (62 percent), nearly all Democrats and 58 percent of independents, think it is appropriate for the select committee to investigate the events of Jan. 6, 2021.

Another 35 percent of Americans, including 68 percent of Republicans, say further investigation amounts to a “witch hunt,” according to a new poll from the PBS NewsHour, NPR and Marist.

In the coming months, the Jan. 6 committee is planning to release its findings and hold public hearings to provide greater clarity on what happened on the day of the attack.

Our latest poll also points to partisan divides on how to describe the Jan. 6 attack.

Chart by Megan McGrew/PBS NewsHour

Roughly half of U.S. adults say that an insurrection took place that day that threatened democracy. But as a party, Republicans “have done a pretty good job of trying to downplay what happened last Jan. 6,” said Lara Brown, director of the Graduate School of Political Management at George Washington University.” According to the poll, 80 percent of Republicans either say the events of Jan. 6 were a legitimate act of dissent or should be put aside as something that occurred in the past.

Today, fewer Americans blame the former president for the attacks than they did immediately after the pro-Trump mob led the violent assault. The day after the attack, 63 percent of Americans said they blamed Trump. Today, 53 percent said they place a good amount of blame on the former president.

That shifting sense of blame is consistent with how the narrative around Jan. 6 being recast by political opportunists as protected speech, said Mary McCord, former acting assistant attorney general for national security at the Department of Justice. “This is all part of building up an opportunity for Trump to run again,” McCord said.

ONE LAWMAKER ON THE TRAUMA SHE EXPERIENCED ON JAN. 6

Rep. Norma Torres, D-Calif., in her office on Capitol Hill in Washington, D.C. Photo by Kent Nishimura/Los Angeles Times via Getty Images

By Joshua Barajas, @Josh_Barrage
Senior Editor, Digital

Nicole Ellis, @NicoleEllis
Digital Anchor

In the months since the Jan. 6 attack, lawmakers have spoken out against what it was like to be in the building as insurrectionists stormed their workplace. The PBS NewsHour’s Nicole Ellis spoke with three lawmakers– three women of color, specifically– about their reflections on that day and how they have felt working in that same space in the year since, as some attacks against their colleagues continue. The conversation with Reps. Norma J. Torres, D-Calif., Grace Meng, D-N.Y., and Sheila Jackson Lee, D-Texas, will stream on YouTube at 7 p.m. EST on Jan. 6,  following the nightly broadcast of the NewsHour -- you can also find it posted on our website earlier that day.

Don’t miss the full interviews -- subscribe to the PBS NewsHour’s YouTube channel.

We wanted to give a sneak peek of those discussions by previewing one of those conversations. Torres, who recounted the trauma she experienced that day, was one of a dozen or so people in the House gallery as guards held back rioters from getting into the chamber. She, along with others, were then evacuated to shelter in a room for about four to five hours to wait out the attack. A year later, reflecting on the moment, Torres said it was “surreal.”

“It is really unbelievable what we went through,” Torres told the PBS NewsHour. The day started out as an event to count and confirm the presidential election results. Everybody was wearing their best, she said. Then, she started to get the alerts on what was happening outside the gallery.

The conversation below has been edited for length and clarity.

Nicole Ellis: What happened on the balcony? Can you give us the play-by-play of what you were experiencing that day?

We were looking forward to watching democracy unfold as we began to go through this process of certifying the election results that had already been certified by all states. It started, as for me, getting those text alerts on my phone. I noticed that, of my colleagues, not all of them were receiving those text alerts, so, sharing that information with them, really going through the process of one building after another, after another, being breached by these rioters that were attacking us. And it got to a point where I thought, “We're going to be here for a long time.” I never imagined they would breach the Capitol itself, but I thought we were going to be there for a long time and I thought, “Maybe this is a good time for me to go and try to use the bathroom, in between all of these alerts,” and as I walked off that balcony floor, seeing the panic on the officers’ face, hearing the radio traffic. I spent 17 and a half years as a 911 dispatcher. So I'm very familiar with calls for help and the radio traffic as it unfolds. I worked through the LA riots. I worked through many, many incidents at the Los Angeles Police Department, where we were mobilized, put on TAC alert. I have heard those calls for help many times before really horrifying pursuits. So there isn't anything really that would be shocking for me to hear. That day was very unusual. I couldn’t really make out what the officers were saying through those screams. You couldn’t understand it. It was one voice after another. Scream after scream.

You were among one of the last few people to be escorted, or evacuated, from the Capitol. You have talked about how traumatizing that was and how emotionally and psychologically exhausting that was. I'm curious to hear how, or if your race and gender factored into your concern for your life and your well-being.

As a Latina, as a female of color, we thought we were going to have to fight for our lives to get out of there. We had pens. Those were our weapons. You know that we had to prepare ourselves. But thinking about when those doors are open and this violent crowd walks in, who are they going to unleash their, you know, madness on first? Who will be the first that they grab? How are we going to protect ourselves up here?

A big part of your job requires you to go back to the Capitol. How does it feel going back there, where you experienced a life-changing traumatic experience?

I do not feel safe. I have an extra change of clothes, which was suggested to me by friends in law enforcement. Be prepared to remove my [House] pin and try to blend in. But how do you blend in in a crowd when you look like me? I can’t just blend in. It doesn’t matter how many hoodies I put over my head. I am still a Latina. I am still someone who comes from California, who lives in the city of Pomona. I can’t change who I am. I think the metal detectors have given me a little bit of relief because I know that every member has to go through it. I have a vest also, a bulletproof vest in my office that I keep there. We have gone through with my staff as to what are the emergency procedures in our office, locking the doors locked, barricading ourselves in our office. These are things that we have taken for granted. 

Between lawmakers, staffers, visitors, people that were there Jan. 6, it can be really hard to get comfortable opening up about how traumatic that experience was. What is your advice for people who are not as far along in recovering from that experience?

I would say that no matter where you were that day, whether you were in your home state or you were in your apartment and in Washington, or you were there at the U.S. Capitol, what happened on Jan. 6 – the violence that we saw unfold on TV or that we experienced – had an impact on you. And no one should feel ashamed of talking to a professional to try to help them deal with the ups and downs of the aftermath. Hearing gunshots in the U.S. Capitol is not normal. Hearing tear gas being deployed and seeing the smoke rise isn't normal. Seeing a mob violently attacking officers, hitting them with a U.S. flag isn't normal. And every single person that works in the U.S. Capitol has been impacted one way or another. Please don't feel like because you were not there, you are not deserving of help. Everyone is deserving of help. And I hope that you feel like many of us members of Congress who were not used to being on this side of I need help and find your own courage to heal yourself because you know your family, your friends and everyone is depending on you to heal yourself. 

#POLITICSTRIVIA
By Tess Conciatori, @tkconch
White House Producer 

On this day in 2007, Nancy Pelosi made history becoming the first woman elected as Speaker of the House of Representatives. A Baltimore native, Pelosi was raised in a deep blue Democratic household where, even as a young girl, she rejected this gift from a Republican poll worker.

Our question: Which toy did the young Nancy Pelosi reject? 

Send your answers to [email protected] or tweet using #PoliticsTrivia. The first correct answers will earn a shout-out next week.

Last time, we asked: Sen. Joe Manchin, D-W. Va., has voted with President Joe Biden’s position on legislation 97.4 percent of the time. There was just one bill where the two disagreed. What was it?

The answer: Voted to block a COVID-19 vaccine and testing mandate for large businesses that was implemented by the Biden administration. The bill to block the mandate failed to pass the House.

Congratulations to our winner: Rich Siegmund!

Thank you all for reading and watching. We’ll drop into your inbox next week.