PARLIAMENTARY BY-ELECTION RESULTS

Analysis from the Chairman Robin Tilbrook

Friend, In the last three Parliamentary by-elections in a row the vote for the Conservative Party has dropped but not in the way that has been suggested in the Media, which insists upon talking about majorities when there are none. 

In the recent by-election in Shropshire North the majority did not vote.  Nor did the majority vote in either of the previous two by-elections, with turnout below 50%.  “Turnout” does not take account of the fact that the Electoral Commission thinks that up to 25% of those that are eligible to vote are not on the electoral roll.  So really a significant majority do not vote.

In Shropshire North what happened was very similar to what had happened in the Chesham and Amersham By-election which is that the Liberal Democrats pursued a successful two-pronged strategy.  The first of those was to supress the Conservative vote, which Johnson’s behaviour no doubt enormously helped them to do.  The second was to get the “Progressive” vote to coalesce around them.  This can easily be seen from the figures. 

In the 2019 General Election in Shropshire North, the Liberal Democrats got 5,643, Labour got 12,495 and the Greens got 1,790, giving a total Leftist vote of 19,928.  I am not sure whether the Shropshire Party who also stood would qualify as a Leftist Party.  Most of these parties which appear to be locally patriotic turn out on investigation to be Liberal Democrats in mufti.  So the total of LibDem, Labour and Green was 19,928, including the Shropshire Party that would be 21,074 vote.

On the 16th December the Liberal Democrats got 17,957, Labour got 3,686 and the Greens got 1,738.  Rejoin the EU got 58 votes.  Interestingly when the Liberal Democrats were pushing for a surge the Shropshire Party did not stand, which I think may suggest that they are simply Liberal Democrats in mufti.  The total Leftist vote therefore in the By-election was 23,439.  The total extra votes for the Left therefore in the Shropshire By-election was 2,365.

By contrast the numbers of voters voting Conservative dropped from 35,444 to 12,032.  This was a reduction in the total number of Conservative votes by 23,412. 

18,439 of whom was the reduction in turn-out of Conservative voters.  There was also 1,427 Reform, 378 UKIP, 375 Reclaim and 79 Heritage, who all might previously have been Conservative voters. 

It does seem clear therefore that relatively few, if any, voters actually went from the Conservatives to the Liberal Democrats.  Whereas the tactical voting was in favour of the Liberal Democrats. 

That leads to at least the encouraging conclusion that the numbers of deluded Left-wing voters in Shropshire North did not increase by any substantial margin, despite what the papers and BBC have tried to tell you!

PS: Friend Please remember we have Election battles fast approaching and our fighting fund is almost depleted and I would greatly appreciate your assistance by chipping in whatever you can to help me plan the upcoming  campaign . Can I count on your support Friend? 

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Yours sincerely

Robin Tilbrook

Party Chairman