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Russian servicemen line up for a ceremony of the Primorye All-Arms Forces Flotilla. (Yuri Smityuk\TASS via Getty Images)

Vladimir Putin capped his month of provocation on the Ukrainian border by issuing new demands this week for the United States and allies to abandon NATO activity across Eastern Europe. With the Baltic frontline states increasingly vulnerable to Russian belligerence and Ukraine's sovereignty imperiled once again, Putin's gambit reveals the waning of NATO deterrence and the fragility of the U.S.-led postwar security system.

Hudson Senior Fellow William Schneider [[link removed]] argues in The [[link removed]] Wall Street Journal [[link removed]] that the U.S. must act urgently to secure NATO's frontline states and restore deterrence. See below for key takeaways, and happy holidays from all of us at Weekend Reads. We will return to your inbox on January 8.

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Key Takeaways

From William Schneider's Wall Street Journal op-ed, " Deter Russia by Arming NATO Allies [[link removed]]"

1. Ukraine, Belarus, and Moldova Face Substantial Risk

With NATO forces hundreds of miles from the border of the former Soviet Union, Russia has a profound military incentive to upend the post-Cold War status quo and re-establish its military dominance of the region. Its plans are well advanced. Russia’s dominance of Belarus is in its final stages as it escalates pressure on the remaining former Soviet states in Europe that are not part of NATO—Moldova and Ukraine.

2. Russian-Belarusian Military Cooperation Threatens Poland

The immediate target for Russia’s de facto annexation is Belarus, whose current antagonistic attitude toward NATO is born more of necessity than desire. Russia accelerated the establishment of a new military unit in Russia’s Kaliningrad exclave this summer, the 18th Motorized Rifle Division and associated Russian and Belarus air defense units based in Belarus and Kaliningrad. These units would be crucial to breaching the Suwalki Gap in Poland between Lithuania and Belarus, allowing Russian forces to detach the three Baltic states from the rest of NATO.

3. Three Steps to Restore Deterrence

NATO’s forward perimeter needs to adapt to Russian belligerence. The frontline states, especially Poland and the Black Sea littoral states of Romania and Bulgaria, must be protected and will need a modern surveillance and reconnaissance system linked to an integrated command-and-control network.

Additionally, NATO should initiate the Article 4 process in the NATO Treaty to restore deterrence and stabilize the border region. This would establish a consultative process whenever “the territorial integrity, political independence, or security” of any member state is threatened.

Finally, NATO should provide the frontline states with modern military capabilities. This modernization needs to go beyond Poland’s acquisition of F-35 aircraft and M1 Abrams tanks. NATO frontline allies need to be integrated into an effective deterrent.

Quotes may be edited for clarity and length.

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Making a Killing | Ep. 31: Putin’s Killer Kleptocracy is on Ukraine's Doorstep [[link removed]]

Russian opposition politician and economist Vladimir Milov joins Hudson Adjunct Fellow Paul Massaro [[link removed]] on the latest Making a Killing to discuss Putin’s troop build-up on the border of Ukraine, the corruption underpinning his regime, and what the West should do to respond to Russian aggression.

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Virtual Event | Ukraine’s Latest Security Crisis [[link removed]]

How can NATO best support Ukrainian sovereignty and deter Russia? Following Putin's deployment of troops along the Ukrainian border this spring, Hudson's Peter Rough [[link removed]] was joined by NATO Assistant Secretary General for Intelligence and Security David Cattler, NATO Assistant Secretary General for Public Diplomacy Ambassador Baiba Braže, and Heritage Foundation's Luke Coffey for a discussion on this pressing challenge.

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Crisis in Ukraine Is a Winner for Putin [[link removed]]

The Ukraine situation so far has been all gain for Putin and no loss, writes Hudson's Walter Russell Mead [[link removed]] in his Wall Street Journal column. By manufacturing a crisis out of thin air, Putin has dominated world news and scored a summit with President Biden. To many Russians, that already looks like a win.

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