Cases are skyrocketing, Omicron & Delta are bearing down on NYC.
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Dear John
If you’ve been reading the news or social media this week, the flashbacks to March 2020 are hard to stomach. Once again, it feels like we are on the precipice of a public health emergency that we thought we were at last getting the better of.
This week, COVID-19 case rates in NYC doubled in just three days. We are heading into a time of holiday gatherings with Delta and Omicron variants circulating, even as all of us are so very weary of this pandemic.
The data on Omicron is still unclear, which of course only increases the anxiety. Here’s how I’m thinking about what we’ve learned so far:
* Omicron is much more transmissible than Delta, which was already much more transmissible than the original Covid-19 strain.
* Being vaccinated – and especially being vaccinated & boosted – appears to be strong protection against serious illness, but NOT against breakthrough infections.
* We just don’t know enough yet about hospitalization rates. Preliminary studies suggest that Omicron is less severe (in the first large-scale study in South Africa, the risk of hospital admissions was 29% lower ([link removed]) for Omicron versus first-wave Covid-19). But even if it turns out to be half-as-severe, if it’s twice as transmissible, that could be the same number of people in our hospitals.
One way of thinking about it: Omicron may be less risky for each of us — but more risky for all of us ([link removed]) .
Look, we are all exhausted and anxious, and with good reason. The pandemic has been terrible for our individual and collective mental health. I totally get the feeling of “I’m just done with this, I can’t take it anymore.”
But our response to the Omicron wave can’t be despair. We really aren’t in the same place as March 2020. As NYS Commissioner for Homeland Security and Emergency Services writes ([link removed]) , we have tools and defenses – especially vaccines, tests, masks, and social distancing protocols. We know how to keep each other safe. So let’s do it.
What does that mean you should do?
Getting vaccinated and boosted and wearing a mask (and especially a good mask) is the best path to avoiding severe illness. Sign up for a shot here ([link removed]) .
There’s strong evidence that there’s a big difference in mask effectiveness – so if (like me) you’ve still mostly been wearing cloth or surgical masks, it’s worth switching to N-95s or double-masking.
As for how to think about what level of activities you should engage in, I found this thread ([link removed]) (or this article ([link removed]) , if you aren’t on Twitter) from our friend Dr. Rachael Bedard to be very helpful.
What does that mean we should do collectively?
I am calling for NYC ([link removed]) to take stronger measures to require masks indoors regardless of vaccination and ramp up testing in schools of vaccinated students, staff and teachers.
Further, I think it would be wise for the City and other large employers to let non-essential employees work remotely through the end of the year.
The Mayor and the Mayor-Elect need to take a coordinated, day-by-day approach to NYC’s public health as we move into the holidays and leadership transitions.
Holiday travel and the case surge are leading to long lines at testing sites. On Thursday, the Mayor announced that city-run sites will now be open 7 days a week, and if lines are long at the Test & Trace Corps brick and mortar sites they will be providing home test kits to shorten wait times. Also, you can look up the wait times ([link removed]) at Health and Hospitals testing sites online, they update it every 2 hours. Find a testing location here. ([link removed])
If you go to a privately-run site to get tested, watch out for unreasonable charges and ask in advance about health care coverage. Companies like CareCube are continuing to charge hundreds of dollars for tests that should be free (we reported them ([link removed]) to the Attorney General’s office for investigation).
Take care of yourself and your families, get tested, get boosted, stay masked. We’ll get through this together.
Brad
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