Top Lines: 2020 Elections | Tariffs and Trade | US Economy | Immigration and the Border | Protecting US Elections | Patriotism & Optimism

Notes On 2020 – While the House is attempting to keep the Impeachment investigation focused and narrow on Trump’s shakedown of Ukraine, the more we learn the more difficult this is proving to be.  Three points: 1) As new documents revealed this weekend, Trump’s attempt to blame Ukraine for Russia’s interference in the 2016 election began with top campaign aide Paul Manafort before the 2016 election; on Friday David Ignatius reported that Trump’s first shake down of Ukraine occurred in 2017, and was done to get Manafort out of trouble over there.  Taken together, we now know that this ongoing Trump/Putin/Ukraine play began more than 3 years ago, and we will come to view the Mueller probe as an early chapter in this single ongoing mega scandal.  2) The current iteration of the Ukraine scandal involves most of the US govt’s senior leadership – Pence, Pompeo, Barr, Mulvaney, Maguire, Sondland, Volker, and dozens more in WH/State/DOJ.  Does the House have any choice other than to pursue their impeachment or prosecution? 3) As Manafort’s longtime business partner Roger Stone’s trial begins today in DC, it is a reminder of the Olympian level of criminality around Trump.  Top campaign aide, personal aide, national security advisor, political advisor, deputy campaign manager, and now Parnas/Fruman all indicted or in jail.  In just 2 ½ years, much of his Cabinet has resigned in scandal, already.  Not going to be easy to get all that down to two or three articles of Impeachment and a short Senate trial my friends. 

On the Dem side, it is now looking like a four way race with Mayor Pete and Senator Warren showing well these past few weeks.  Our initial read on Warren’s single payer plan is that legit questions about the accuracy of her estimates both on the spend and income sides are a huge problem for her, for it raises broader questions about her intellectual integrity – the very core of her brand.  We also wonder why there isn’t more of a conversation about the role of Trump’s illicit and conventional attacks on Biden in helping to cause some of the VP’s recent rough polling numbers in the early states (particularly considering that he received a boost in several national polls this weekend).  For if the Trump effort is indeed impacting Biden, then we need to describe the Trump effort to use Ukraine to interfere in our elections as something live and ongoing, and not in any way “an attempt” or speculative. 

Finally, ACA sign-up period began last week. As NDN has written before, politicians on both sides of the aisle should use this period to advocate to their constituents to get signed up, and Democrats should stress the integral role of the Affordable Care Act in increasing access to healthcare across the country. 

Last Week's GDP Report Highlights Trump's Broken Promises On The Economy – When Trump took office, he promised that his combination of tax cuts and tariffs would create sustainable growth of 3%, and that growth "could go to 4, 5, and maybe even 6%". As the Administration explained, reduced taxes on corporations as well as tariffs on foreign imports would lead to a sizable increase in business investment in the US, powering economic growth. Last Wednesday's GDP report should be the final straw in taking any of these arguments from the President and his advisers seriously. Growth in the 3rd quarter came in at just 1.9%, meaning that over the past year the economy has grown by only 2%, a far cry from the sustainable 3% promised. And growth is likely to continue its slide in coming months, with economists' consensus for Q4 growth at 1.7% and Q1 2020 growth at 1.5%. Even worse, rather than act as the engine for growth, business investment has collapsed in recent months and fell by 3% in the third quarter, its worst result since 2015. NDN has long argued that the principle cause of this slowdown in both investment and growth is Trump's disastrous trade policies, which have pushed the manufacturing sector into recession and cost over 300,000 jobs so far. You can read more about NDN's work on trade and economic policy under the Trump administration here.

Under 45 Voters Are Breaking Hard Towards The Democrats - Among the most significant political developments of the Trump era is the dramatic shift of under 45 year old voters towards the Democrats.  From 2000 to 2016, Democrats won the under 45 vote by an average of 6 points. In the 2018 midterm elections, they won it by 25. NDN has written extensively on the magnitude of this shift and its profound effects on the future of American politics. You can find our most recent analysis of this shift here, and follow all of NDN's work on the 2020 elections here.

Coming To Terms With New Age Of “Moscow Rules” In US Politics - In a piece we published a few months ago, we decried the embrace by Trump and the GOP of what we call the “Moscow Rules” of politics – the bare knuckled use of all modern tactics such as fake identities, foreign collaboration, hacking, and classic disinformation in our domestic politics.  Our fears were heightened when the FEC, the body in charge of policing our elections, was shut down by Trump and the Republicans in late August.  And it is with that context that we consider Trump’s effort to invent a scandal against his leading opponent with the aid of a foreign nation – it is literally right out of Putin’s playbook. 

Our own assessment of what we’ve seen so far is that our system isn’t really ready to handle this new era.  The parties have not yet assumed the degree of responsibility that they will need to battle this new dystopian political world; even simple, easy bills to address these challenges have been blocked by Trump and McConnell; and the Biden campaign still remains remarkably flummoxed by an attack they had to know was coming.   Trump’s dropping of $10m into bringing his imaginary scandal to television of course confirms the political nature of his pressure campaign on the Ukrainian President, providing further evidence that once again the President has broken US election laws; but bring it he has, and now all of us have to talk openly about what it is we are witnessing here, and what we can and should be doing about it.  This isn’t politics as usual – it is Moscow Rules – and no one can or should be surprised at the ferocity in which it is being practiced by Trump and his party.  

Of course, these tactics include the use of high-volume, often clearly fake accounts on Twitter.  Our recent effort to build a database of the most influential of these accounts is now up to 321.  Feel free to check it out here and review our broader set of recommendations about how to protect our democracy and discourse from foreign manipulation. As well, Simon weighs in on the struggle Democrats are having in responding to Trump’s attacks on Biden in this new Politico piece. 

ICYMI – NDN has released proposals to protect our elections, reform US immigration laws, and counter Trump’s reckless protectionism.  We’ve also proposed creating a new super department we call the Department of Jobs, Skills, and Economic Development to better target our efforts to ensure no one is left behind.  We’ve marveled at the dramatic decline of the GOP’s prospects in the heavily Mexican-American part of the US, and just how much better Democrats have been in managing the US economy in a new age of globalization. We are advising Congress to go slow and be smart in how it reforms the Postal Service – reforms are needed but far more is going right than wrong these days. 

We’ve also written a great deal about Trump and his contempt for democracy and the liberal order America has imagined and built.  We’ve challenged the conventional wisdom to stop downplaying the enormity of the Russian attack on our system, recognize that Trump is more like Maduro than almost any politician in the West, understand the European elections as a direct repudiation of Trumpism/illiberalism, and acknowledge that America First has become an extraordinary governing and political failure.  After repeated mass shootings and the rise of dangerous domestic terrorism, we think the Democrats should make this fall about keeping America and Americans safe. 

Recent NDN Media Citations – You can find us in these recent stories: ABC/FiveThirtyEight, AP (here, here, here), Atlantic, CNN (article, TV), Financial Times, MSNBC, NBC News, New York Times, Politico, Real Clear Politics, San Antonio Express-News, Slate, Telemundo, Time Magazine, USA Today, Washington Monthly, and the Washington Post (here, here, here, here, here, here, here, here). Simon offers extensive remarks about the 2020 Democratic Primary in this recent Ron Brownstein Atlantic piece - we think it is well worth your time. 

You can also catch Simon in extended interviews on politics and disinformation in this new Future State podcast hosted by Dick Clarke, on Democrats and immigration in this Slate podcast hosted by Univision’s Leon Krauze, and in Fernand Amandi’s new Strange Days podcast on why Democrats need to go big and make their indictment of Trump far more than about “obstruction.”

Support Our Far-Sighted Work Today – We know there are many calls on your giving, but please consider donating to NDN today.  Whatever amount - $5, $25, $100 – it all helps us keep the ideas and insights coming. 

Best,

Simon, Chris, and the rest of the NDN team

 

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