Warren proposes 6 percent tax on wealth over bgcolor="#FAFAFA"
style="-webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%; -ms-text-size-adjust: 100%;
height: 100% !important; width: 100% !important; background-color:
#FAFAFA; margin: 0; padding: 0;"B to pay for Medicare for All
Warren proposes 6 percent tax on wealth over $1B to pay for Medicare
for All  
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November 4, 2019: Beto O'Rourke announced that he was dropping out of
the presidential race. Elizabeth Warren proposed a 6 percent tax on
wealth over $1 billion to fund Medicare for All.
_Share the latest from the campaign trail._
   
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There are 14 new candidates running since last week, including one
Republican and two Libertarians. In total, 930 individuals are
currently filed with the FEC to run for president.
Notable Quote of the Day
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“The vaunted event that catapulted Obama to stardom [the Liberty
and Justice Celebration] was reduced to just another candidate cattle
call, long on rhetoric but short on results.
Lu Ann Pedrick, a Des Moines-based party activist … said the
candidate field is just too large. That means no single candidate
really has the time to spin a narrative. She thinks even Obama would
be lagging somewhere towards the back of the pack in an environment
like this.”
– Daniel Newhauser, _Vice_
Democrats
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Cory Booker
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Pete Buttigieg
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John Delaney
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Amy Klobuchar
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Bernie Sanders
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and Andrew Yang
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spoke at the Accessibility, Inclusion, and Outreach Conference
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in Des Moines, Iowa, on Saturday, where they discussed issues
affecting people with disabilities.
*
Delaney, Tulsi Gabbard
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and Marianne Williamson
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spoke at the No Labels Problem Solver Convention
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on Sunday in Manchester, New Hampshire.
*
Michael Bennet
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campaigned in Iowa
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over the weekend, including a stop at the Turn Iowa Blues Fest.
*
Joe Biden
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endorsed
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a slate of 23 candidates ahead of Tuesday’s Virginia General
Assembly elections. He also campaigned in Virginia
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with Gov. Terry McAuliffe.  
*
Julián Castro
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reached his goal of raising $800,000
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before the end of October and will remain in the race. 
*
Gabbard will campaign in New Hampshire
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Monday and Tuesday.
*
Kamala Harris
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reached 4 percent support in a national poll released Sunday, earning
her fourth and final poll necessary to qualify
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for the December debate.
*
Beto O'Rourke
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announced
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Friday that he was dropping out of the presidential race. “My
service to the country will not be as a candidate or as the
nominee,” he said in a _Medium_ post.
*
Sanders held a rally
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in Minneapolis Sunday with Rep. Ilhan Omar at the University of
Minnesota campus. The campaign estimated that 10,000 people attended
the event.
*
In a Fox News interview
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on Saturday, Joe Sestak
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discussed the threat of ISIS.
*
While campaigning in Las Vegas
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Sunday, Tom Steyer
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opened his Nevada campaign headquarters.
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Elizabeth Warren
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said she would double her previously proposed wealth tax
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from 3 percent to 6 percent on wealth over $1 billion to fund Medicare
for All
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Republicans
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Donald Trump
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held a rally in Tupelo, Mississippi
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to campaign for Lt. Gov. Tate Reeves in his run for governor of
Mississippi. Trump discussed the impeachment inquiry, the Democratic
primary, and the media. An estimated 10,000 people attended the event.
*
In a CNN interview
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Sunday, Joe Walsh
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said Fox News and conservative talk radio were lying to and
manipulating listeners on the impeachment inquiry.
*
Bill Weld
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spoke at the No Labels Problem Solver Convention
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on Sunday in Manchester, New Hampshire.
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General Election Updates
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Former coal executive and 2018 West Virginia Senate candidate Don
Blankenship
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filed to run for president as a Constitution Party candidate
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Thursday.
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Special Guest Analysis
_Jim Ellis is a 35-year political veteran who now analyzes election
data for major corporations, associations, and legislative advocacy
firms. He is president of EllisInsight, LLC. We invited him to share
analysis on the presidential election._
It’s common practice on an election-eve for political
prognosticators to predict what may unfold next election cycle based
on today’s voting patterns. The disparate elections to be decided
this Nov. 5, however, leave us little salient prediction material.
Turnout is expected to exceed normal voting trends in states with
major elections at the top of the ballot, a pattern that is already
being projected for the 2020 cycle. All indicators suggest that we
will see record participation in next year’s presidential contest,
with some estimates exceeding 150 million votes. In 2016, a record
136,792,535 people cast their ballots.
Three governors will be elected in November: one each in Kentucky and
Mississippi on Nov. 5, and another following the Louisiana runoff on
Nov. 16.  State legislative elections are on tap in Mississippi, New
Jersey, and Virginia. Louisiana runoffs for state House and Senate
races will also be held on Nov. 16.
The statewide races, in particular, have unique characteristics that
don’t lend themselves to making predictions about the upcoming
presidential race. In Kentucky, Gov. Matt Bevin (R) was a surprise
winner in 2015 and has been unpopular almost since his inauguration.
Although Kentucky is one of the strongest Republican states at the
federal level, Democrats can still win election to state office.
Attorney General Andy Beshear is the Democratic nominee. He is the son
of former Kentucky Gov. Steve Beshear (D), who defeated an unpopular
Republican state chief executive back in 2007.
Mississippi Lt. Gov. Tate Reeves (R) faces four-term Attorney General
Jim Hood (D) in the election to succeed term-limited incumbent Gov.
Phil Bryant (R). While polls show a tight race, Hood is staying away
from running as a national Democrat. Even if Hood were to upset
Reeves, little could be extrapolated for future races.  
In Louisiana, Gov. John Bel Edwards (D) was forced into a runoff with
Baton Rouge developer Eddie Rispone (R). Though the GOP ad producers
are trying, it has been difficult to pin the liberal label on Edwards
since he signed the state’s new heartbeat abortion law.
Additionally, should Rispone unseat the Democratic governor, the
result would align with normal electoral trends, given the state’s
Republican voting history.
The Democrats are poised to win control of the Virginia legislature,
but even that won’t be transformational. The state has been moving
left for several years and the Democrats won a court redistricting
decision that makes the legislative maps more favorable. Any change in
party control would actually be closer to the new normal vote in the
state rather than establishing a trendsetting benchmark.
Though we will see some interesting results on Nov. 5, the vote totals
won’t be a harbinger for next year. We should analyze each of the
winning campaigns individually instead of proclaiming a trend
prediction.
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What We’re Reading
*
The Atlantic: Nobody Talks About Impeachment on the Campaign Trail
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CNN: It's one year until the 2020 election. Here are 10 numbers you
need to know
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Politico: Inside Beto O’Rourke’s collapse
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Flashback: November 4, 2015
Ben Carson topped
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the RealClearPolitics polling average for the first time. Donald Trump
previously held the first position for 107 days.
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of the law. Donations to the Lucy Burns Institute or Ballotpedia do
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