| From | Institute of Economic Affairs <[email protected]> |
| Subject | Here we go again |
| Date | December 12, 2021 9:00 AM |
Links have been removed from this email. Learn more in the FAQ.
Links have been removed from this email. Learn more in the FAQ.
**
------------------------------------------------------------
* TALKING POINT, WITH JULIAN JESSOP
* THE REVERSIBLE 'IRREVERSIBLE' ROADMAP
* UP IN SMOKE
* iN THE MEDIA
* IEA DIGITAL
* CALLING ALL STUDENTS!
Here we go again… just as the economy was getting back on its feet, along comes Omicron and more government restrictions to drag us back down.
It is often said that we should be willing to pay any economic price to control Covid. However, it is essential to take account of the potential costs, and not just any benefits, in assessing whether the case for new measures adds up.
The economic costs of the new restrictions depend on two things. First, there is the direct impact of the individual measures themselves. The new guidance on ‘working from home’ and the rollout of ‘vaccine passports’ will have a substantial impact on office-related activities and on the leisure and hospitality sectors.
Second, there is the broader impact on sentiment. Even if each new regulation in isolation is only a small change from where we are now, it’s the cumulative impacts and the direction of travel that really matter. This could have a chilling impact on consumer and business confidence, and on spending.
It is hard to put firm numbers on this, but someone has to. Judging by what happened last winter, the additional Covid restrictions could knock as much as 2 per cent off GDP – costing the UK economy at least £4 billion a month. The additional restrictions could also force the taxpayer to stump up billions more to prevent a new wave of bankruptcies and job losses.
This isn’t just about the economy, either. These economic costs would come on top of all the social costs and harms to people’s wellbeing and liberties.
Many reasonable people will still argue that these costs are worth it, to buy time for the NHS and for the vaccine booster programme. Even just thinking about the economics, it could make sense to take another hit in the short term to secure a stronger recovery in the longer term.
However, this judgement would require strong evidence that the new variant is more deadly, not just more transmissible. This is a particularly high bar to clear in the UK, where most experts agree that the population has now acquired a high degree of immunity due to past infections and from the vaccines already delivered.
So far, this evidence base is missing. At the very least, the government needs to be willing to review the new ‘Plan B’ restrictions sooner rather than later, as we learn more about the risks posed (or not posed) by Omicron.
Julian Jessop
Economics Fellow, Institute of Economic Affairs
THE REVERSIBLE 'IRREVERSIBLE' ROADMAP
[link removed]
As Julian explained, the government's decision to bring in further Covid restrictions will come at a cost. His analysis was reported across the national and regional media, featuring in the Express ([link removed]) , The Evening Standard ([link removed]) , The Times ([link removed]) , Sun ([link removed]) , Daily Mail ([link removed]) , Independent ([link removed]) and The Telegraph.
Julian was also quoted iniNews ([link removed]) earlier this week assessing the damage another full national lockdown would have on the economy.
[link removed]
IEA Head of Lifestyle Economics Christopher Snowdon argued on talkRadio that the government cannot continue to bring in knee-jerk restrictions every time a new variant comes along. He added that the government's decision is not based on any cost-benefit analysis. You can watch the interview here ([link removed]) .
[link removed]-
Christopher also wrote for The Spectator ([link removed]-) on the move to Plan B. He questioned whether new Covid measures were introduced to "knock unfavourable stories off the front pages", noting again that there is no new evidence to suggest harsher measures are justified.
iN THE MEDIA
During Wednesday's Downing Street press conference, the Prime Minister raised the prospect of mandatory vaccines for the public, calling for a “national conversation” about how to defend the country from future Covid threats.
[link removed]
In her column for The Spectator ([link removed]) , IEA Director of Communications Annabel Denham argued that "publicly shaming the unvaccinated is anathema to the values of personal autonomy or individual responsibility".
[link removed]
Writing for Conservative Home ([link removed]) , IEA Head of Media Emily Carver warned against following the authoritarian measures we're seeing on the continent, which include de facto lockdowns for the unvaccinated.
On Wednesday, Annabel appeared on Sky News The View to discuss Thursday's opinion pages. The panel focused on the fallout from the alleged Downing Street party as well as the government's decision to move to 'Plan B'.
Annabel also reviewed last Sunday's papers on BBC News with journalist Yasmin Alibhai-Brown. They discussed the latest on the Omicron variant and whether the asylum system is in need of an overhaul. You can catch up here ([link removed]) .
[link removed]
Hot Air... This week, the UK Climate Change Committee published a report on the outcome of COP26.
Writing for The Telegraph ([link removed]) , Annabel argued that the CCC is acting like "an eco-activist NGO", and that deference towards such bodies allows politicians to introduce costly or disruptive policies without taking full responsibility for their decisions - or full accountability if things go wrong.
The IEA recently published a critique of the Committee by Head of Regulatory Affairs Victoria Hewson, which you can read here ([link removed]) .
And IEA Head of Education Dr Steve Davies took part in Times Radio's new Think Tank Thursday feature which showcases eye-catching ideas that will 'make people think'.
Steve put forward his bold idea to abolish compulsory school attendance. You can listen back here ([link removed]) .
UP IN SMOKE
[link removed]
New Zealand is expected to enact a ban on the sale of tobacco to its next generation, in a bid to make the country smoke-free by 2025. Under the rules, anyone born after 2008 will not be allowed to buy cigarettes or tobacco products in their lifetime, under a law expected to be enacted next year.
IEA Director General Mark Littlewood appeared on GB News to discuss the new law. Mark noted that the smoking ban is not only illogical and illiberal, but will fuel criminality. You can watch the interview here ([link removed]) .
[link removed]
Quoted in The Express ([link removed]) , IEA Head of Lifestyle Economics Christopher Snowdon noted that the last government to try to ban smoking was ISIS and that "prohibition never ends well."
IEA PATREON
Thank you to all of you who have already signed up to become an IEA Online Patron. Becoming a Patron grants you VIP access to our latest videos, priority invites to our virtual events, and the opportunity to engage directly with IEA Director General Mark Littlewood and the IEA team. For just a small donation you can get all these benefits and more.
[link removed]
To visit the page and find out more about the IEA’s Patreon, follow the link here ([link removed]) or watch our trailer here ([link removed]) .
IEA DIGITAL
[link removed]
The IEA hosted John Penrose MP for the latest in our In Conversation series with senior figures in public life. The event was chaired by IEA Director General Mark Littlewood, and took place on December 1st 2021.
John spoke to Mark about his latest paper Poverty Trapped: Why Is Poverty Still With Us, After 70 Years Of The Welfare State? ([link removed]) , which you can read here ([link removed]) .
[link removed]
On the latest episode of Live with Littlewood, Mark Littlewood discussed the week's main headlines with star guests Greg Smith MP; Sascha O'Sullivan, Comment and Features Editor at City AM; Silkie Carlo of Big Brother Watch; and the IEA's own Victoria Hewson.
The panel responded to 'Plan B; restrictions as they were announced live in Downing Street, and gave their analysis on the efficacy and ethics of vaccine passports, as well as on the UK's new Drug Strategy. You can watch here ([link removed]) .
[link removed]
You can now watch a talk by Dr Schrepel from the conference the IEA recently hosted with the Information, Technology and Innovation Foundation on the competition and regulation of digital markets.
Dr Thibault is an Associate Professor of Law at VU Amsterdam University, and a Faculty Affiliate at Stanford University CodeX Center, where he established the “Computational Antitrust” project that brings together over 50 antitrust agencies.
A reminder that we will be uploading a new talk from the conference every Monday on the IEA YouTube Channel ([link removed]) . You can watch here ([link removed]) .
In this week's podcast, IEA Communications and Public Affairs Officer Kieran Neild-Ali speaks to IEA Head of Education Dr Steve Davies about public goods.
Does the state have to provide public goods in all circumstances? And, if not the state, who historically built the roads and provided law enforcement? You can listen here ([link removed]) .
CALLING ALL STUDENTS!
Ahead of the Christmas break, we are delighted to announce our internship and summer school programme for 2022.
[link removed]
A-Level / IB Economics Exam Revision Course... For the first time, we will be running an exam revision course from Tuesday 12th – Thursday 14th April.
Our week-long Internship Programme will also run as normal from Monday 4th – Friday 8th April. Applications for both programmes close on February 4th 2022.
[link removed]
Residential Summer School... In partnership with the Institute of International Monetary Research, the Vinson Centre, and the Initiative for African Free Trade and Prosperity, the IEA will host a residential summer school.
This programme is open to undergraduate students and will take place from 27th June to 8th July. It will have four streams: general economics, monetary theory, economic history, and trade and globalisation.
Sixth Form Future Thought Leaders’ Programme... You can also apply to attend a week-long programme for sixth formers which will take place from Monday 25th – Friday 29th July. The week will include lectures, discussions, and debates with expert economists.
Summer School Internship... Last but not least, our summer school internship will start from Tuesday 2nd August – Friday 19th August. Interns will participate in lectures, seminars, debates, discussions, as well as workshops on professional and career development.
You can find out more about all of our internship programmes here ([link removed]) , or email IEA Education, Outreach and Programmes Manager Brittany Davis at [email protected] (mailto:[email protected]) with any questions.
TIME FOR A (STUDENT) CHALLENGE
[link removed]
A reminder that submissions are open for the IEA's Monetary Policy Essay Competition ([link removed]) , which is run in partnership with the Vinson Centre and the Institute of International Monetary Research. This year’s question is: 'Does inflation matter? And will the current inflation upturn be transitory or not?' The deadline is Friday, January 21st 2022.
Entries are also still open for this year's Budget Challenge ([link removed]) . Schools can enter teams of up to four students to put together a submission that will outline a budget with taxation and spending policy for the United Kingdom in the coming financial year. The deadline to submit is Friday, January 28th 2022.
============================================================
With a little help from our friends....
** ([link removed])
As an educational charity, the work we do is entirely funded by donations. If you are able to help please click ** here ([link removed])
or contact ** [email protected] (mailto:[email protected]?body=Dear%20Angela%2C)
. Thank you.
And why not get Amazon to donate too?
All you have to do is to start shopping on ** [link removed] ([link removed])
and pick the Institute of Economic Affairs Limited as your chosen charity. The IEA will then receive 0.5% of your spending on most items. Everything else remains the same (and at no additional cost to you).
** Twitter ([link removed])
** Facebook ([link removed])
** LinkedIn ([link removed])
You are receiving this email from the Institute of Economic Affairs
** Unsubscribe ([link removed])
from this list.
© 2021 Institute of Economic Affairs
Institute of Economic Affairs 2 Lord North Street London, London SW1P 3LB United Kingdom
Registered in England 755502, Charity No. CC/235 351, Limited by Guarantee
** Forward ([link removed])
this email to a friend
This email was sent to [email protected] (mailto:[email protected])
why did I get this? ([link removed]) unsubscribe from this list ([link removed]) update subscription preferences ([link removed])
Institute of Economic Affairs . 2 Lord North Street . London, London SW1P 3LB . United Kingdom
------------------------------------------------------------
* TALKING POINT, WITH JULIAN JESSOP
* THE REVERSIBLE 'IRREVERSIBLE' ROADMAP
* UP IN SMOKE
* iN THE MEDIA
* IEA DIGITAL
* CALLING ALL STUDENTS!
Here we go again… just as the economy was getting back on its feet, along comes Omicron and more government restrictions to drag us back down.
It is often said that we should be willing to pay any economic price to control Covid. However, it is essential to take account of the potential costs, and not just any benefits, in assessing whether the case for new measures adds up.
The economic costs of the new restrictions depend on two things. First, there is the direct impact of the individual measures themselves. The new guidance on ‘working from home’ and the rollout of ‘vaccine passports’ will have a substantial impact on office-related activities and on the leisure and hospitality sectors.
Second, there is the broader impact on sentiment. Even if each new regulation in isolation is only a small change from where we are now, it’s the cumulative impacts and the direction of travel that really matter. This could have a chilling impact on consumer and business confidence, and on spending.
It is hard to put firm numbers on this, but someone has to. Judging by what happened last winter, the additional Covid restrictions could knock as much as 2 per cent off GDP – costing the UK economy at least £4 billion a month. The additional restrictions could also force the taxpayer to stump up billions more to prevent a new wave of bankruptcies and job losses.
This isn’t just about the economy, either. These economic costs would come on top of all the social costs and harms to people’s wellbeing and liberties.
Many reasonable people will still argue that these costs are worth it, to buy time for the NHS and for the vaccine booster programme. Even just thinking about the economics, it could make sense to take another hit in the short term to secure a stronger recovery in the longer term.
However, this judgement would require strong evidence that the new variant is more deadly, not just more transmissible. This is a particularly high bar to clear in the UK, where most experts agree that the population has now acquired a high degree of immunity due to past infections and from the vaccines already delivered.
So far, this evidence base is missing. At the very least, the government needs to be willing to review the new ‘Plan B’ restrictions sooner rather than later, as we learn more about the risks posed (or not posed) by Omicron.
Julian Jessop
Economics Fellow, Institute of Economic Affairs
THE REVERSIBLE 'IRREVERSIBLE' ROADMAP
[link removed]
As Julian explained, the government's decision to bring in further Covid restrictions will come at a cost. His analysis was reported across the national and regional media, featuring in the Express ([link removed]) , The Evening Standard ([link removed]) , The Times ([link removed]) , Sun ([link removed]) , Daily Mail ([link removed]) , Independent ([link removed]) and The Telegraph.
Julian was also quoted iniNews ([link removed]) earlier this week assessing the damage another full national lockdown would have on the economy.
[link removed]
IEA Head of Lifestyle Economics Christopher Snowdon argued on talkRadio that the government cannot continue to bring in knee-jerk restrictions every time a new variant comes along. He added that the government's decision is not based on any cost-benefit analysis. You can watch the interview here ([link removed]) .
[link removed]-
Christopher also wrote for The Spectator ([link removed]-) on the move to Plan B. He questioned whether new Covid measures were introduced to "knock unfavourable stories off the front pages", noting again that there is no new evidence to suggest harsher measures are justified.
iN THE MEDIA
During Wednesday's Downing Street press conference, the Prime Minister raised the prospect of mandatory vaccines for the public, calling for a “national conversation” about how to defend the country from future Covid threats.
[link removed]
In her column for The Spectator ([link removed]) , IEA Director of Communications Annabel Denham argued that "publicly shaming the unvaccinated is anathema to the values of personal autonomy or individual responsibility".
[link removed]
Writing for Conservative Home ([link removed]) , IEA Head of Media Emily Carver warned against following the authoritarian measures we're seeing on the continent, which include de facto lockdowns for the unvaccinated.
On Wednesday, Annabel appeared on Sky News The View to discuss Thursday's opinion pages. The panel focused on the fallout from the alleged Downing Street party as well as the government's decision to move to 'Plan B'.
Annabel also reviewed last Sunday's papers on BBC News with journalist Yasmin Alibhai-Brown. They discussed the latest on the Omicron variant and whether the asylum system is in need of an overhaul. You can catch up here ([link removed]) .
[link removed]
Hot Air... This week, the UK Climate Change Committee published a report on the outcome of COP26.
Writing for The Telegraph ([link removed]) , Annabel argued that the CCC is acting like "an eco-activist NGO", and that deference towards such bodies allows politicians to introduce costly or disruptive policies without taking full responsibility for their decisions - or full accountability if things go wrong.
The IEA recently published a critique of the Committee by Head of Regulatory Affairs Victoria Hewson, which you can read here ([link removed]) .
And IEA Head of Education Dr Steve Davies took part in Times Radio's new Think Tank Thursday feature which showcases eye-catching ideas that will 'make people think'.
Steve put forward his bold idea to abolish compulsory school attendance. You can listen back here ([link removed]) .
UP IN SMOKE
[link removed]
New Zealand is expected to enact a ban on the sale of tobacco to its next generation, in a bid to make the country smoke-free by 2025. Under the rules, anyone born after 2008 will not be allowed to buy cigarettes or tobacco products in their lifetime, under a law expected to be enacted next year.
IEA Director General Mark Littlewood appeared on GB News to discuss the new law. Mark noted that the smoking ban is not only illogical and illiberal, but will fuel criminality. You can watch the interview here ([link removed]) .
[link removed]
Quoted in The Express ([link removed]) , IEA Head of Lifestyle Economics Christopher Snowdon noted that the last government to try to ban smoking was ISIS and that "prohibition never ends well."
IEA PATREON
Thank you to all of you who have already signed up to become an IEA Online Patron. Becoming a Patron grants you VIP access to our latest videos, priority invites to our virtual events, and the opportunity to engage directly with IEA Director General Mark Littlewood and the IEA team. For just a small donation you can get all these benefits and more.
[link removed]
To visit the page and find out more about the IEA’s Patreon, follow the link here ([link removed]) or watch our trailer here ([link removed]) .
IEA DIGITAL
[link removed]
The IEA hosted John Penrose MP for the latest in our In Conversation series with senior figures in public life. The event was chaired by IEA Director General Mark Littlewood, and took place on December 1st 2021.
John spoke to Mark about his latest paper Poverty Trapped: Why Is Poverty Still With Us, After 70 Years Of The Welfare State? ([link removed]) , which you can read here ([link removed]) .
[link removed]
On the latest episode of Live with Littlewood, Mark Littlewood discussed the week's main headlines with star guests Greg Smith MP; Sascha O'Sullivan, Comment and Features Editor at City AM; Silkie Carlo of Big Brother Watch; and the IEA's own Victoria Hewson.
The panel responded to 'Plan B; restrictions as they were announced live in Downing Street, and gave their analysis on the efficacy and ethics of vaccine passports, as well as on the UK's new Drug Strategy. You can watch here ([link removed]) .
[link removed]
You can now watch a talk by Dr Schrepel from the conference the IEA recently hosted with the Information, Technology and Innovation Foundation on the competition and regulation of digital markets.
Dr Thibault is an Associate Professor of Law at VU Amsterdam University, and a Faculty Affiliate at Stanford University CodeX Center, where he established the “Computational Antitrust” project that brings together over 50 antitrust agencies.
A reminder that we will be uploading a new talk from the conference every Monday on the IEA YouTube Channel ([link removed]) . You can watch here ([link removed]) .
In this week's podcast, IEA Communications and Public Affairs Officer Kieran Neild-Ali speaks to IEA Head of Education Dr Steve Davies about public goods.
Does the state have to provide public goods in all circumstances? And, if not the state, who historically built the roads and provided law enforcement? You can listen here ([link removed]) .
CALLING ALL STUDENTS!
Ahead of the Christmas break, we are delighted to announce our internship and summer school programme for 2022.
[link removed]
A-Level / IB Economics Exam Revision Course... For the first time, we will be running an exam revision course from Tuesday 12th – Thursday 14th April.
Our week-long Internship Programme will also run as normal from Monday 4th – Friday 8th April. Applications for both programmes close on February 4th 2022.
[link removed]
Residential Summer School... In partnership with the Institute of International Monetary Research, the Vinson Centre, and the Initiative for African Free Trade and Prosperity, the IEA will host a residential summer school.
This programme is open to undergraduate students and will take place from 27th June to 8th July. It will have four streams: general economics, monetary theory, economic history, and trade and globalisation.
Sixth Form Future Thought Leaders’ Programme... You can also apply to attend a week-long programme for sixth formers which will take place from Monday 25th – Friday 29th July. The week will include lectures, discussions, and debates with expert economists.
Summer School Internship... Last but not least, our summer school internship will start from Tuesday 2nd August – Friday 19th August. Interns will participate in lectures, seminars, debates, discussions, as well as workshops on professional and career development.
You can find out more about all of our internship programmes here ([link removed]) , or email IEA Education, Outreach and Programmes Manager Brittany Davis at [email protected] (mailto:[email protected]) with any questions.
TIME FOR A (STUDENT) CHALLENGE
[link removed]
A reminder that submissions are open for the IEA's Monetary Policy Essay Competition ([link removed]) , which is run in partnership with the Vinson Centre and the Institute of International Monetary Research. This year’s question is: 'Does inflation matter? And will the current inflation upturn be transitory or not?' The deadline is Friday, January 21st 2022.
Entries are also still open for this year's Budget Challenge ([link removed]) . Schools can enter teams of up to four students to put together a submission that will outline a budget with taxation and spending policy for the United Kingdom in the coming financial year. The deadline to submit is Friday, January 28th 2022.
============================================================
With a little help from our friends....
** ([link removed])
As an educational charity, the work we do is entirely funded by donations. If you are able to help please click ** here ([link removed])
or contact ** [email protected] (mailto:[email protected]?body=Dear%20Angela%2C)
. Thank you.
And why not get Amazon to donate too?
All you have to do is to start shopping on ** [link removed] ([link removed])
and pick the Institute of Economic Affairs Limited as your chosen charity. The IEA will then receive 0.5% of your spending on most items. Everything else remains the same (and at no additional cost to you).
** Twitter ([link removed])
** Facebook ([link removed])
** LinkedIn ([link removed])
You are receiving this email from the Institute of Economic Affairs
** Unsubscribe ([link removed])
from this list.
© 2021 Institute of Economic Affairs
Institute of Economic Affairs 2 Lord North Street London, London SW1P 3LB United Kingdom
Registered in England 755502, Charity No. CC/235 351, Limited by Guarantee
** Forward ([link removed])
this email to a friend
This email was sent to [email protected] (mailto:[email protected])
why did I get this? ([link removed]) unsubscribe from this list ([link removed]) update subscription preferences ([link removed])
Institute of Economic Affairs . 2 Lord North Street . London, London SW1P 3LB . United Kingdom
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