Hudson founders Herman Kahn and Max Singer pictured during the Institute's early years.
Hudson Institute celebrated its 60th anniversary this week, marking more than half a century of policy research dedicated to keeping America and its allies secure, free, and prosperous. Founded in 1961, Hudson Institute was established to foster a better understanding of deterrence in the atomic age and create the conditions for the free world to triumph over communism. Its founder Herman Kahn, a leading defense intellectual of the atomic age, wrote the groundbreaking book Thinking About the Unthinkable, which urged policymakers to plan for nuclear war to prevent it from occurring. This approach to tackling the most challenging foreign policy issues has informed Hudson’s decades-long tradition of unconventional thinking. Watch our anniversary video and read key excerpts from Thinking About the Unthinkable to learn more.
Thinking About the Unthinkable with Herman Kahn
1. Approach National Security with Dispassionate Clarity
Critics frequently refer to the icy rationality of the Hudson Institute, the Rand Corporation, and other such organizations. I’m always tempted to ask in reply, “Would you prefer a warm, human error? Do you feel better with a nice emotional mistake?”
We cannot expect good discussion of security problems if we are going to label every attempt at detachment as callous, every attempt at objectivity as immoral. Such attitudes not only block discussion of the immediate issues, they lead to a disunity and fragmentation of the intellectual community that can be disastrous to the democratic dialogue between specialist and layman. The former tends to withdraw to secret and private discussions; the latter becomes more and more innocent, or naive, and more likely to be outraged if he is ever exposed to a professional discussion.
2. The Risks of Modern Technology Must Not Be Ignored
Reality may be so unpleasant that decision makers would prefer not to face it; but to a great extent this reality has been forced on them, or has come uninvited. Thanks to our ever-increasing technology, we are living in a terrible and dangerous world; but, unlike the lady in the cartoon we cannot say, “Stop the world, I want to get off.” We cannot get off. Even the most utopian of today’s visionaries will have to concede that the mere existence of modern technology involves a risk to civilization that would have been unthinkable twenty-five years ago.
3. 'Unthinkable' Scenarios Must Be Given Serious Consideration
Many intelligent and sincere people are willing to argue that it is immoral to think and even more immoral to write in detail about having to fight a thermonuclear war...We Americans and many people throughout the world are not prepared to face reality, that we transfer our horror of thermonuclear war to reports about the realities of thermonuclear war. In our times, thermonuclear war may seem unthinkable, immoral, insane, hideous, or highly unlikely, but it is not impossible. To act intelligently we must learn as much as we can about the risks...We must appreciate these possibilities. We cannot wish them away. Nor should we overestimate and assume the worst is
inevitable. This leads only to defeatism, inadequate preparations (because they seem useless), and pressures toward either preventive war or undue accommodation.
Quotes may be edited for clarity and length.
Hudson Institute celebrated its 60th anniversary with a reception in New York City on Wednesday evening with a discussion featuring Hudson Distinguished Fellows Walter Russell Mead and Kenneth R. Weinstein and Senior Fellows Nadia Schadlow and Michael Doran, moderated by Hudson President and CEO John P. Walters.
Deter Russia by Arming NATO Allies As Russian troops mass on the border with Ukraine, the U.S. must act urgently to protect states on the front line and restore deterrence in Europe, writes Hudson Senior Fellow William Schneider in The Wall Street Journal. The
failure to stand firm against Russian aggression risks destroying the entire postwar security system in Europe.
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The Realistic Path to Deterring China The blurred line between peace and war exemplified by China's gray-zone military operations renders the Pentagon’s traditional planning constructs obsolete, write Hudson Senior Fellows Bryan Clark and Dan Patt in National Review. As the Pentagon completes its new defense strategy, it should ensure that the U.S. military looks beyond the Taiwan Strait to focus on reducing the Chinese military's operational confidence.
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