Council on Foreign Relations
Daily News Brief
December 8, 2021
Top of the Agenda
Biden Warns Putin of Consequences if Russia Invades Ukraine
On a call yesterday, U.S. President Joe Biden told Russian President Vladimir Putin (NPR) that if Russia invaded Ukraine, the United States would impose “strong economic measures” and increase military support to Ukraine, U.S. National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan said.
 
A Kremlin statement after the call blamed the West for tensions around Ukraine and said Putin called for a guarantee that Ukraine would not join the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO). U.S. officials rejected (NYT) this demand. Meanwhile, the U.S. House of Representatives passed a defense bill (Reuters) that included $300 million in U.S. military support for Ukraine. The United States has also sought Germany’s support (FT) for blocking Russia’s Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline as part of a possible sanctions package.
Analysis
Strong deterrence plus a willingness to have a strategic dialogue on broader European security issues (rather than a Ukraine-focused negotiation) seems to be [Biden’s] approach. Let’s hope it works,” CFR’s Martin S. Indyk tweets.

“It may not be too late for the Biden administration to seize the diplomatic initiative and broker arrangements to avert a war. But to do this, it should rethink the basic carrot-and-stick formula that has characterized America’s approach thus far,” the RAND Corporation’s Samuel Charap writes for Politico.

This Backgrounder unpacks the conflict in Ukraine.

Pacific Rim
Australia Joins Diplomatic Boycott of Beijing Winter Olympics
Prime Minister Scott Morrison cited (SMH) the Chinese government’s “human rights abuses,” trade strikes against Australia, and inability to return Australian ministers’ phone calls.
 
Japan: Tokyo plans to begin recognizing same-sex partnerships (CNA) by March 2023, becoming the largest Japanese city to do so.
 
This Backgrounder compares countries’ policies on marriage equality.

South and Central Asia
India’s Defense Chief Killed in Helicopter Crash
The air force confirmed that the country’s highest-ranking military official, General Bipin Rawat, was killed (Hindu), as were his wife and the air force helicopter’s twelve other passengers.
 
Myanmar: Meta, the parent company of Facebook and Instagram, banned (FT) pages and accounts belonging to military-owned businesses over their role in funding the military’s “ongoing violence and human rights abuses.”

Middle East and North Africa
Saudi Arabia: France Arrested Wrong Person Over Khashoggi Killing
French police detained the Saudi national (Al Jazeera) based on an arrest warrant Turkey issued in connection to the 2018 murder of journalist Jamal Khashoggi. Riyadh said the man police arrested has the same name as the suspect.
 
Iraq/Iran: An attack on the Iraqi prime minister’s home last month was not authorized by Iran but appears to have been the work of private militias with Iran-supplied drones, intelligence analysts told the Washington Post. Iran reportedly equipped militias it backs with drones after the United States killed Iranian commander Qasem Soleimani in 2020.
This Day in History: December 8, 1987
The North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) is signed into law by U.S. President Bill Clinton, reducing barriers to trade and investment between the United States, Mexico, and Canada.

Sub-Saharan Africa
South Africa’s Ruling Party Drops Proposed Change to Constitution
The plan to modify the constitution to make it easier for the government to expropriate land lacked sufficient support (Bloomberg) from the opposition.
 
Nigeria: Gunmen torched a bus (Reuters) in Sokoto State yesterday, killing at least thirty passengers.

Europe
Olaf Scholz Sworn In as German Chancellor, Ending Merkel Era
Scholz, from the center-left Social Democratic Party of Germany, will lead a coalition (BBC) with the Greens and business-friendly Free Democratic Party. He takes over from Angela Merkel, who was chancellor for sixteen years.
 
CFR’s Matthias Matthijs examines Merkel’s legacy.

Americas
Chile’s Congress Legalizes Same-Sex Marriage
After having opposed same-sex marriage for years, President Sebastian Pinera announced his support for it (NPR) in June.
 
Peru: The country’s legislature rejected a motion (Al Jazeera) to impeach President Pedro Castillo by 76-46 votes.

United States
House Passes $768 Billion Defense Policy Bill
The bill includes a requirement (NYT) that would strip military commanders of the authority to prosecute sexual assault cases and excludes both a repeal of the 2002 authorization for the Iraq war and a requirement for women to register for the draft. The Senate is expected to pass the bill.
 
The Why It Matters podcast explains how the U.S. military handles sexual assault.
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