BY JAMIE MCINTYRE

FACE-OFF: The secure video call is set for 10 a.m. Washington time, 6 p.m. in Moscow. President Joe Biden will be in the White House situation room, Russian President Vladimir Putin in the Kremlin.

Both sides know what to expect. Putin has massed a formidable military force of up to 100,000 troops poised to invade eastern Ukraine should Putin give the order, and Biden’s high-stakes task is to convince the Russian leader the U.S. and its European allies can inflict enough economic damage through sanctions to make crossing the border not worth the pain.

“He will make clear that there will be very real costs, should Russia choose to proceed, but he will also make clear that there is an effective way forward with respect to diplomacy,” a senior administration official briefed reporters yesterday. “The president will conduct this discussion the same way he has with past discussions with Putin, in a professional, candid, straightforward manner, where he will make clear, without any kind of rhetorical flourish or finger-wagging.”

PUTIN’S BIG DEMAND: Putin sees NATO expansion as a direct threat to Russian security, and, in particular, Ukraine’s move to the West and application for NATO membership as something that could put NATO troops right on the border with Russia.

Putin is expected to demand guarantees that Ukraine won’t be admitted to the alliance in return for assurances that he will back off any threat of invasion. On Friday, Biden rejected the idea publically, “I won’t accept anybody’s red line,” he said.

“The United States has consistently expressed support for the principle that every country has the sovereign right to make its own decisions with respect to its security. That is written into the founding documents of the alliance, and that remains U.S. policy today and will remain U.S. policy in the future,” the official said yesterday.

“We will, of course, support discussions between NATO and Russia to address larger issues of concern on both sides, Russia's concerns with NATO activities and NATO and American concerns with Russian activities. We did this in the Cold War and developed mechanisms to help reduce instability and increase transparency.”

EXPERTS FEAR PUTIN 'PREPARING CITIZENS FOR WAR' AGAINST UKRAINE

BIDEN’S BIG STICK: The White House has not outlined what sanctions it would impose on Russia, but it’s believed they would target individual Russians and cut the country off from the global financial system, which would seriously affect the Russian economy.

“We believe that we have a path forward that would involve substantial economic countermeasures by both the Europeans and the United States that would impose significant and severe economic harm on the Russian economy, should they choose to proceed,” the official said.

What the U.S. is not threatening is any involvement of U.S. troops in defense of Ukraine. “I would say that the United States is not seeking to end up in a circumstance in which the focus of our countermeasures is the direct use of American military force,” the official said. Instead, the U.S. will pursue “a combination of support for the Ukrainian military” and “strong economic countermeasures.”

WHITE HOUSE: US PREPARED TO PROVIDE MILITARY 'REASSURANCE' TO NATO ALLIES IF RUSSIA INVADES UKRAINE

Good Tuesday morning and welcome to Jamie McIntyre’s Daily on Defense, written and compiled by Washington Examiner National Security Senior Writer Jamie McIntyre (@jamiejmcintyre) and edited by Victor I. Nava. Email here with tips, suggestions, calendar items, and anything else. Sign up or read current and back issues at DailyonDefense.com. If signing up doesn’t work, shoot us an email and we’ll add you to our list. And be sure to follow us on Twitter: @dailyondefense.

CLICK HERE TO SIGN UP OR READ BACK ISSUES OF DAILY ON DEFENSE

ADVERTISEMENT

Subscribe today to the Washington Examiner magazine and get Washington Briefing: politics and policy stories that will keep you up to date with what's going on in Washington. SUBSCRIBE NOW: Just $1.00 an issue!

NOTE TO READERS: Daily on Defense will be on holiday hiatus from Monday, Dec. 20 through Friday, Dec. 31. We’ll be back to help you start the new year on Monday, Jan. 3. Happy holidays!

HAPPENING TODAY: U.S.-Russia policy takes center stage at 2:30 this afternoon when the Senate Foreign Relations Committee hears testimony from Victoria Nuland, undersecretary of state for political affairs.

ALSO TODAY: The Senate Judiciary Committee holds a hearing at 10 a.m. on closing the U.S. detention facility at Guantanamo Bay, Cuba, with testimony from Brig. Gen. John Baker, chief defense counsel for military commissions in the Defense Department.

Also at 10 a.m., Michael Bolton, inspector general of the U.S. Capitol Police, testifies before the Senate Rules and Administration Committee on "Oversight of the U.S. Capitol Police Following the January 6th Attack on the Capitol.”

WILL HE OR WON’T HE? The Biden administration has been consistent in saying it has no idea whether Russian President Putin actually intends to invade Ukraine, and experts are divided about what Putin will do.

While some believe Putin is bluffing to increase his negotiating position, Tom Rogan, a national security writer and contributors editor for the Washington Examiner, writes it would be folly not to take the threat seriously.

“U.S. and Ukrainian officials suggest that an invasion may occur by late January. But there are reasons to believe that an offensive may come even sooner — perhaps before Christmas,” Rogan writes. “If Biden avoids appeasing Putin, the Russian leader may feel pressure to act quickly. Inflation is rising in Russia, with political pressures likely to grow as food becomes more expensive. A subjugated Ukraine would serve both Putin's strategic narrative and Russian domestic pride.”

OPINION: WHY RUSSIA MAY ATTACK UKRAINE BEFORE CHRISTMAS

In an opinion essay in Forbes, analyst Loren Thompson of the Lexington Institute takes the opposite view, arguing there are at least five reasons to think that Putin will stop short of sending in his troops, tanks, and artillery.

Thompson argues that while Putin talks big, he is not a big risk taker, and invading Ukraine comes at considerable risk, not just the sanctions, but also the likelihood it would galvanize NATO nations that Russia is a real threat. “Thus, Russia’s bid to keep Kyiv out of NATO could result in the Western Alliance becoming a much bigger military problem for Moscow,” he writes.

And while Russian forces would likely overwhelm Ukrainian defenders — even with U.S. and NATO assistance — victory would come with casualties and result in an uncertain occupation. “Any prolonged war in Ukraine could foster the same kind of domestic backlash resulting from Russia’s invasion of Afghanistan in the late 1970s, because Russians don’t like losing their sons to ill-conceived military adventures any more than Americans do,” says Thompson.

“Given all the potential drawbacks, a Russian invasion of Ukraine looks both foolish and unlikely,” he writes. “Unless U.S. intelligence detects a further buildup of troops an invasion is improbable.”

AUSTIN SOUNDS ALARM ON FULL-YEAR CR: Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin is warning Congress about the “enormous, if not irreparable, damage” that would be done if Democrats and Republicans can’t agree on a full-year appropriations bill for the Pentagon.

In a statement, Austin said if Congress were to continue funding the government with a stop-gap resolution that would freeze spending at last year’s level, it would be a disaster.

“It would misalign billions of dollars in resources in a manner inconsistent with evolving threats and the national security landscape, which would erode the U.S. military advantage relative to China, impede our ability to innovate and modernize, degrade readiness, and hurt our people and their families,” Austin wrote. “And it would offer comfort to our enemies, disquiet to our allies, and unnecessary stress to our workforce.”

“I urge Congress to reach a bipartisan, bicameral agreement on FY 2022 appropriations, and avoid a full-year CR, in the coming weeks.”

BLOWBACK: Yesterday’s front-page report in the Washington Post, quoting “people familiar with the matter,” and suggesting landmark reforms to the military justice system would be scaled back in negotiations over the final form of the National Defense Authorization Act, prompted immediate blowback from veterans groups and advocates of wider reforms.

“IAVA finds it abhorrent that even though the provision is so popular in Congress that the Armed Services leaders would still consider stripping it from the final bill behind closed doors,” said Jeremy Butler, CEO of Iraq and Afghanistan Veterans of America.

"Rather than giving military prosecutors full authority over a case, the Pentagon is working behind closed doors to keep a commander’s authority over a case including the power to grant or deny witness immunity requests, order depositions, approve the hiring of expert witnesses and consultants and most importantly the authority to withdraw any and all charges the prosecutor has brought against an accused,” said retired Col. Don Christensen, president of Protect Our Defenders, an advocacy group. “If allowed to stand, prosecutors will be anything but independent. Instead, they will be required to convince a commander to approve critical litigation decisions that can make the difference between winning and losing a case.”

The provision in question was championed by New York Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand, who tweeted last week: “We've spent nearly a decade building a bipartisan, filibuster-proof coalition to reform the military justice system. It's absurd to me that four men — in a back room with the door closed — could try to subvert the will of so many other members to deny justice.”

“Based on more than a dozen interviews with senior officials and advocates familiar with private negotiations on Capitol Hill, it appears the Gillibrand provision, short of a miracle, is out,” the Post reported. “Those talks involve the top Democrats and Republicans on the Senate and House Armed Services committees.”

CLICK HERE TO READ MORE FROM THE WASHINGTON EXAMINER

The Rundown

Washington Examiner: Experts fear Putin 'preparing citizens for war' against Ukraine

Washington Examiner: White House: US prepared to provide military 'reassurance' to NATO allies if Russia invades Ukraine

Washington Examiner: China looking to build naval base on Africa’s Atlantic coast

Washington Examiner: Judge blocks former Trump officials' returns to Naval Academy board

Washington Examiner: Migrants from all over world cross southern border in record numbers

AP: Desperation drives thousands of Afghans a day across borders

Politico: Two New Secret Combat Drones Are in the Works, Air Force Secretary Says

Washington Post: 80th anniversary of Pearl Harbor brings end to victim-identification program

AP: Survivors gather to remember those lost at Pearl Harbor

Washington Times: Pacific Chief Says China’s Military Buildup Largest Since World War II

USNI News: Cyber Presence Operations Key To Pentagon’s Gray Zone Conflict With China

Air Force Magazine: China’s Impact on the Evolving US Footprint in CENTCOM

Wall Street Journal: U.S. Hope For Iran Nuclear Talks Now Rests On China, Russia

New York Times: Ransomware Operators Are Linked To Moscow’s Tallest Skyscraper

Military.com: 'We Have Put You In An Unsafe Condition': Top Navy Officials Apologize For Tainted Water At Pearl Harbor

Air Force Magazine: Reaper Drone Crashes on Runway at Holloman

AP: End of an era: Germany’s Merkel bows out after 16 years

19fortyfive.com: How U.S. Allies and Friends Are Helping Fund China’s New Aircraft Carrier

19fortyfive.com: How Pearl Harbor Changed America Forever

The Hill: Opinion: Can the US military recover its reputation?

Washington Examiner: Opinion: Why Russia may attack Ukraine before Christmas

Forbes: Opinion: Quick Take: Why Putin Won’t Invade Ukraine

Washington Examiner: Why would we go to war over Taiwan or Ukraine?

Calendar

TUESDAY | DECEMBER 7 

8 a.m. — Association of the U.S. Army forum: “Holistic Health and the Soldier: An Army Medical Hot Topic,” with Lt. Gen. R. Scott Dingle, Army surgeon general and commanding general of the U.S. Army Medical Command; Chris Rheney, deputy chief of staff for resources, infrastructure and strategy in the U.S. Army Medical Command's Office of the Surgeon General; and Brig. Gen. James Work, director of operations, readiness and mobilization in the Office of the Army Deputy Chief of Staff https://www.ausa.org/events/army-medical-hot-topic

8:30 a.m. — George Washington University Institute for Korean Studies and the East Asia National Resource Center virtual Korea Policy Forum: “South Korea's Presidential Election and U.S.-Republic of Korea Relations,” with Beomchul Shin, director of the Korea Research Institute for National Strategy's Diplomacy and Security Center; Joon Hyung Kim, former chancellor of the Korea National Diplomatic Academy; Mark Tokola, vice president of the Korea Economic Institute of America; Celeste Arrington, professor at GWU; and Yonho Kim, associate director of the GWU Institute for Korean Studies https://calendar.gwu.edu/korea-policy-forum-south-korea

9 a.m. 1750 Independence Ave. S.W. — Friends of the National World War II Memorial and the National Park Service commemorate the 80th anniversary of the Battle of Pearl Harbor, with a reading of the names of the more than 2,400 Americans killed during the December 7, 1941 attack and remarks by Navy Lt. Cmdr. Thomas O'Flanagan, command chaplain for Joint Force Headquarters-National Capital Region/U.S. Army Military District of Washington; retired Army Lt. Gen. Mick Kicklighter, board member of the Friends of the National World War II Memorial; Jeff Reinbold, superintendent of the National Mall and Memorial Parks; and Mary Millben, actress and singer https://www.facebook.com/WWIIMemorialFriends

9:30 a.m. — House Oversight and Reform Subcommittee on National Security hearing: “Examining the Worldwide Threat of al Qaeda, ISIS, and Other Foreign Terrorist Organizations.” with Christopher Landberg, acting State Department principal deputy coordinator for counterterrorism; and Milancy Harris, deputy assistant secretary of defense for special operations and combating terrorism https://oversight.house.gov/legislation/hearings

10 a.m. — Defense One virtual Outlook 2022 summit with keynote interview with Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin. https://events.defenseone.com/outlook-2022

10 a.m. 216 Hart — Senate Judiciary Committee hearing on "Closing Guantanamo: Ending 20 Years of Injustice,” with testimony from Brig. Gen. John Baker, chief defense counsel for military commissions in the Defense Department http://judiciary.senate.gov

10 a.m. 301 Russell — Senate Rules and Administration Committee hearing on "Oversight of the U.S. Capitol Police Following the January 6th Attack on the Capitol, Part II,” with testimony from Michael Bolton, inspector general of the U.S. Capitol Police http://rules.senate.gov

10 a.m. — Heritage Foundation virtual discussion: “U.S. Nuclear Declaratory Policy and the Future of Extended Deterrence,” with Senate Foreign Relations ranking member James Risch, R-Idaho; former Japanese Minister of Defense Taro Kono; and Patty-Jane Geller, policy analyst for nuclear deterrence and missile defense at Heritage https://www.heritage.org/missile-defense/event

10:30 a.m. — Center for a New American Security virtual discussion: “Containing Crisis: Strategic Concepts for Coercive Economic Statecraft on China,” with Rep. Ami Bera, D-Calif.; Emily Kilcrease, director of the CNAS Energy, Economics, and Security Program; Rachel Ziemba, adjunct senior fellow at the CNAS Energy, Economics, and Security Program; and Emily Jin, research assistant at the CNAS Energy, Economics, and Security Program https://www.cnas.org/events/virtual-event

2:30 p.m. G-50 Dirksen — Senate Foreign Relations Committee hearing on U.S.-Russia policy, with testimony from Victoria Nuland, undersecretary of state for political affairs http://foreign.senate.gov

3:30 p.m. — Missile Defense Advocacy Alliance virtual discussion: “80 Years Later — Are We Ready to Defend the Pacific,” with Lt. Gen. Stephen Sklenka, deputy commander, U.S. Indo-Pacific Command; retired Lt. Gen. Jon Thomas, former deputy commander, U.S. Pacific Air Forces; retired Rear Adm. Mark Montgomery, former director of operations, U.S. Pacific Command; retired Maj. Gen. Joaquin Malavet, former director for strategic planning and policy, U.S. Indo-Pacific Command; Riki Ellison, MDAA chairman and founder; retired Rear Adm. Victorino Mercado, moderator, former director of maritime operations, U.S. Pacific Fleet Register: https://missiledefenseadvocacy.org/advocacy/events Livestream: https://www.youtube.com/watch

WEDNESDAY | DECEMBER 8 

9:45 a.m. 1616 Rhode Island Ave. N.W. — Center for Strategic and International Studies Project on Nuclear Issues Winter Conference with panels discussion on “The Past, Present, and Future of Arms Control, and “Evolving Global Threats” https://www.csis.org/events/poni-2021-hybrid-winter-conference

10 a.m. — Center for Strategic and International Studies and the Defense Acquisition Program Administration virtual conference, “U.S.-Korea Defense Cooperation in the Biden Administration,” with Lt. Gen. Duke Richardson, military deputy in the Office of the Assistant Secretary of the Air Force for Acquisition, Technology and Logistics; and Seo Hyeong Jin, vice minister at the Republic of Korea Defense Acquisition Program Administration https://www.csis.org/events/csis-dapa-conference

10 a.m. — Defense One virtual Outlook 2022 summit, with Jake Sullivan, assistant to the president for national security affairs; Colin Kahl, undersecretary of defense for policy; and White House Space Force Brig. Gen. John Olson, mobilization assistant to the Chief of Space Operations https://events.defenseone.com/outlook-2022/

1:15 p.m. — Friedrich-Ebert-Stiftung panel discussion: “Peace policy in our time,” with NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg; Helga Schmid, secretary general of the OSCE, Ursula Schröder, director of the Institute for Peace Research and Security Policy at the University of Hamburg, and Martin Schulz, president of the Friedrich-Ebert Stiftung. https://www.fes.de/en/shaping-a-just-world/peace-and-security

2 p.m. — Protect Democracy virtual conversation: “National Security Risks of Election Disinformation and Subversion,” with Javed Ali, former senior director for counterterrorism, National Security Council; Matt Masterson, former senior cybersecurity adviser Department of Homeland Security, and former chair of the Election Assistance Commission; and Olivia Troye, former homeland security and counterterrorism adviser to Vice President Mike Pence. https://us06web.zoom.us/webinar/register

2:30 p.m. G-50 Dirksen — Senate Foreign Relations Committee hearing: “The Future of U.S. Policy on Taiwan,” with testimony from Daniel Kritenbrink, assistant secretary of state for East Asian and Pacific affairs; and Ely Ratner, assistant secretary of defense for Indo-Pacific security affairs. https://www.foreign.senate.gov/hearings

10 a.m. — Brookings Institution virtual discussion: “Is the NATO-EU Divide an Obstacle to a European Foreign Policy?,” with Kristi Raik, director of the International Center for Defense and Security's Estonian Foreign Policy Institute; Benjamin Haddad, senior director of the Atlantic Council's Europe Center; Rachel Rizzo, senior fellow at the Atlantic Council's Europe Center; Giovanna De Maio, visiting fellow at George Washington University's Institute for European, Russian, and Eurasian Studies; and Thomas Wright, director of the Brookings Center on the United States and Europe https://www.brookings.edu/events/is-the-nato-eu-divide-an-obstacle

3:30 p.m. 2121 K St. N.W. — International Institute for Strategic Studies and American Institute for Contemporary German Studies discussion: “Germany's Defense and Security Priorities under a post-Merkel Government,” with Bastian Giegerich, director of defense and military analysis at the International Institute for Strategic Studies; Constanze Stelzenmuller, senior fellow at the Brookings Institution's Center on the United States and Europe; and Jeff Rathke, president of AICGS https://www.iiss.org/events/2021/12/germanys-defense-and-security-priorities

4 p.m. — Center for Strategic and International Studies virtual discussion: “Nuclear Weapons: The Growing Risk,” with former Energy Secretary Ernest Moniz, co-chair and CEO of the Nuclear Threat Initiative (NTI); and former Sen. Sam Nunn, D-Ga., founder and co-chair of NTI https://www.csis.org/events/nuclear-weapons-growing-risk

THURSDAY | DECEMBER 9

9:30 a.m. — Senate Armed Services Committee confirmation hearing on the nomination of Adm. Christopher Grady to be vice chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff. (Rescheduled from Dec. 2) https://www.armed-services.senate.gov/hearings/nomination

9:30 a.m. — Center for Strategic and International Studies virtual discussion on the Korean Peninsula and Asia, with former Acting CIA Director Michael Morell; and Sue Mi Terry, director of the Wilson Center's Hyundai Motor-Korea Foundation Center for Korean History and Public Policy https://www.csis.org/events/capital-cable-38-michael-morell

9:45 a.m. 1616 Rhode Island Ave. N.W. — Center for Strategic and International Studies 2021 Project on Nuclear Issues Winter Conference panel discussion on "Emerging Threats and Technologies in the Nuclear Sphere" https://www.csis.org/events/poni-2021-hybrid-winter-conference

10 a.m. — Center for a New American Security virtual discussion: “Lessons of the Syrian Conflict,” former U.S. Ambassador to Syria Robert Ford; Nicholas Danforth, visiting scholar at George Washington University; Mona Yacoubian, senior vice president at the U.S. Institute of Peace; and Elisa Ewers, adjunct senior fellow at the CNAS Middle East Security Program https://www.cnas.org/events/virtual-event-lessons-of-the-syrian-conflict

2 p.m. — Center for a New American Security virtual discussion: “ The Next National Defense Strategy,” with Mara Karlin, performing the duties of deputy defense undersecretary for policy https://www.cnas.org/events/mission-brief-the-next-national-defense-strategy

2 p.m. — Atlantic Council virtual discussion: “Is there a 'Plan B' for Iran?" with Kelsey Davenport, director for nonproliferation policy at the Arms Control Association; Mahsa Rouhi, research fellow at National Defense University; Sima Shine, head of the Institute for National Security Studies' Iran Program; Barbara Slavin, director of the Atlantic Council's Future of Iran Initiative; and Sina Azodi, nonresident fellow at the Atlantic Council https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/event/is-there-a-plan-b-for-iran/

2 p.m. — Association of the United States Army virtual book discussion on "Thought Leaders: Special Operations Forces,” with N.W. Collins, author of Grey Wars: A Contemporary History of U.S. Special Operations; Jessica Donati, author of Eagle Down: The Last Special Forces Fighting the Forever War; and Tony Brooks, author of Leave No Man Behind: The Untold Story of the Rangers' Unrelenting Search for Marcus Luttrell, the Navy SEAL Lone Survivor in Afghanistan https://www.ausa.org/events/thought-leaders-special-operations-forces

FRIDAY | DECEMBER 10 

8:30 a.m. — Mitchell Institute for Aerospace Studies virtual Spacepower Forum, with Lt. Gen. John Shaw, deputy commander of the U.S. Space Command; and retired Gen. Kevin Chilton, explorer chair for space warfighting studies at Mitchell Institute's Spacepower Advantage Research Center https://mitchellaerospacepower.org/event

11 a.m. — Heritage Foundation virtual discussion: “The Crisis in Belarus,” with U.S. Ambassador to Belarus Julie Fisher https://www.heritage.org/europe/event

11 a.m. — Cato Institute virtual discussion: “The Meaning of European Defense,” with French Ambassador to the United States Philippe Etienne; Joshua Shifrinson, associate professor of international relations at Boston University; Rachel Rizzo, senior fellow at the Atlantic Council; Justin Logan, senior fellow at Cato; and Peter Goettler, president and CEO of Cato https://www.cato.org/events/meaning-european-defense

12 p.m. — Woodrow Wilson Center Kennan Institute for Advanced Russian Studies virtual book discussion on Weak Strongman: The Limits of Power in Putin's Russia, with author Timothy Frye, professor at Columbia University https://www.wilsoncenter.org/event

ADVERTISEMENT