Kentucky, Mississippi gubernatorial races headline notable state and local elections

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Welcome to this weekend’s edition of The State & Local Tap! We have previews of races we're watching on November 5 down below.

Read the full Tap online ([link removed])

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** BALLOTPEDIA TRACKING ELECTIONS FOR 2,983 SEATS
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On Tuesday, 27 states are holding elections ([link removed]) for 2,983 seats within Ballotpedia’s coverage scope. Regular elections are being held for 2,894 seats, and special elections are being held for 89 seats. Here is a breakdown of the type and number of elections Ballotpedia is covering on November 5:

* There are no congressional seats up for election.
* Two states—Kentucky ([link removed]) and Mississippi ([link removed]) —are holding elections for 21 state executive positions, including governor and lieutenant governor.
* 12 states are holding elections for 413 state legislative seats. The majority of these races are being held in Mississippi and Virginia with 174 state legislative seats and 140 state legislative seats up in each state, respectively.
* Three states are holding elections for seven state court judgeships.
* Five states are holding elections for 81 local court judgeships.
* 19 states are holding elections for 2,201 municipal positions.
* 16 states are holding elections for 260 school board seats.

Many of the municipal elections covered by Ballotpedia in 2019 are taking place in North Carolina. This year, Ballotpedia expanded its coverage of North Carolina ([link removed]) to provide voters with a comprehensive statewide sample ballot. This coverage includes elections spanning 503 cities, towns, and villages, nine school districts, and 17 special districts across the state.
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** BEVIN, BESHEAR, HICKS RUNNING IN KENTUCKY GOVERNOR'S RACE
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Gov. Matt Bevin ([link removed]) (R), state Attorney General Andy Beshear ([link removed]) (D), and John Hicks ([link removed]) (L) are running in Kentucky’s gubernatorial election ([link removed]) . This election follows nearly four years of conflict between Bevin and Beshear, which began when each was elected to his current position.

* As the election has neared, the campaigns have taken to the airwaves both on the radio and on television. Between Bevin, Beshear, and groups affiliated with the Republican Governors Association and Democratic Governors Association, ad spending has broken $20 million. In the last week alone, those four groups have accounted for $5 million in spending.

This race will decide the state's trifecta status until at least the 2020 state legislative elections. If Bevin wins, Republicans will maintain their trifecta control of the state, while a Beshear or Hicks victory would result in neither party having trifecta control. Kentucky is currently a Republican trifecta. Before Bevin's 2015 victory, Democrats held the governorship for 16 of the previous 20 years.

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** FOUR CANDIDATES RUNNING TO SUCCEED MISSISSIPPI GOV. BRYANT (R)
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State Attorney General Jim Hood (D), Lt. Gov. Tate Reeves (R), Bob Hickingbottom (Constitution) and David Singletary (I) are running ([link removed]) for a four-year term as Mississippi’s next governor. Incumbent Phil Bryant (R) is term-limited.

* Candidates running for statewide office in Mississippi must win both a majority of the statewide vote and carry a majority of the 122 state House districts in order to win election outright. If no candidate does both, the state House votes to decide the winner. A challenge to this provision is currently before a federal district court. Judge Daniel Jordan ruled Friday that he would not issue an injunction blocking the provision ahead of Tuesday’s election.
* Because the governor is a Republican and Republicans control both chambers of the state legislature, Mississippi is one of 22 Republican state government trifectas. If Republicans maintain their legislative majorities in Tuesday's elections, a victory for Reeves would preserve Mississippi's Republican trifecta while a victory for one of the other candidates would break it.

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** VIRGINIA TO ELECT ALL 140 MEMBERS OF STATE LEGISLATURE
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All 140 seats in the Virginia General Assembly are up for election. Republicans hold a two-seat majority in each, while Gov. Ralph Northam is a Democrat. Candidates elected this year will hold office through the 2020 redistricting cycle, so these elections will decide how that process plays out.

If Republicans retain control of the Senate or the state House, they will have a seat at the redistricting table. If Democrats win both chambers of the legislature, they will have a trifecta and full control of the government during redistricting.

* In the Virginia State Senate, Republicans hold a 21-19 majority. Ballotpedia identified seven districts as battlegrounds this year: Republicans hold six of the districts and Democrats hold one. Republicans have held a majority in the chamber since 2015.
* In the Virginia House of Delegates, Republicans hold a 51-49 majority. Ballotpedia identified 27 districts as battlegrounds this year: Republicans hold 16 of the districts and Democrats hold 11. Republicans have held a majority in the chamber since 2000. Court-ordered redistricting in 2019 created seven new districts with Republican incumbents that voted for Hillary Clinton (D) in the 2016 presidential election.

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** SATELLITE SPENDING TOPS $4 MILLION IN SEATTLE CITY COUNCIL ELECTIONS
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The nonpartisan elections for seven Seattle City Council seats ([link removed]) saw a record-breaking $4.1 million in satellite spending through Oct. 30. That’s more than five times the amount spent in 2015, the last time the seven district seats were on the ballot.

* Four council races are open. In the other three contests, incumbents Lisa Herbold (District 1), Kshama Sawant (District 3), and Debora Juarez (District 5) are seeking re-election.
* The elections are occurring a year and a half after the repeal of the 2018 head tax proposal, which would have required businesses grossing at least $20 million to pay $275 per employee in order to fund housing programs for the homeless.
* This is the second election in which a voter voucher program is being used to provide public funding to campaigns.

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** TWELVE CANDIDATES RUN IN HOUSTON MAYORAL RACE
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Incumbent Sylvester Turner and 11 challengers will compete in the November 5, 2019, general election for mayor of Houston, Texas ([link removed]) . If no candidate receives more than 50% of the vote, the top two finishers will participate in a runoff election on December 14, 2019.

* Of the 11 candidates running against Turner, local media outlets have identified five major challengers: Kendall Baker, Dwight Boykins, Tony Buzbee, Bill King, and Sue Lovell.
* Policy debate in the race has centered on Turner’s record during his first term, especially regarding his handling of the city’s budget and spending priorities.
* Houston’s mayor serves as the city’s chief executive and is responsible for proposing a budget, signing legislation into law, appointing departmental directors, and overseeing the city’s day-to-day operations. He or she also presides over the city council with voting privileges.

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** CAMERON, STUMBO FACE OFF IN KENTUCKY ATTORNEY GENERAL RACE
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Kentucky voters will choose a new attorney general Nov. 5, with Daniel Cameron (R) and Gregory Stumbo (D) vying for the office ([link removed]) .

* Democrats have controlled the AG office in Kentucky since 1948. The state’s election history suggests this year’s contest will be competitive.

* The 2015 attorney general race ([link removed]) was decided by a margin of 0.2 percentage points—50.1% to 49.9%. Beshear defeated Whitney Westerfield (R) by 2,194 votes. In the 2016 presidential election, Donald Trump (R) won Kentucky with 62.5% of the vote. Trump endorsed Cameron on July 29, 2019.

* The AG position is open, as incumbent Andy Beshear is the Democratic nominee challenging incumbent Gov. Matt Bevin (R) in the gubernatorial race.

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** HOUSTON VOTERS TO ELECT FOUR SCHOOL BOARD MEMBERS IN WAKE OF STATE INVESTIGATION OF BOARD'S GOVERNANCE
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Elections for four out of nine HISD school board seats ([link removed]) will be held on November 5.

The HISD school board faces the possibility of being replaced by a state-appointed board. If that happens, elected school board members would not have any power until they were reinstated, although they would be able to participate as non-voting representatives.

* Texas Commissioner of Education Mike Morath could decide to replace the HISD school board for two reasons: either as a result of a Texas Education Agency (TEA) investigation into the board’s governance or as a result of poor academic performance ratings at a high school in the district.

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** NORTH CAROLINA COURT APPROVES NEW STATE LEGISLATIVE MAPS
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On October 28, 2019, a three-judge panel of North Carolina's superior court approved new state legislative district maps ([link removed]) . The remedial maps were adopted by the state legislature after the panel had struck down the existing district plan as an impermissible partisan gerrymander under the state constitution.

* In 2020, North Carolina will hold elections for its 50 state senators and its 120 state representatives. Ballotpedia has identified the North Carolina state House and Senate as battleground chambers in 2020. Republicans currently control both chambers. Democrats would need to gain four Senate seats and six House seats in order to win majorities in the two chambers.
* In North Carolina, the state legislature is responsible for redistricting. Lawmakers elected in 2020 will draw the district maps – both congressional and state legislative – that govern elections for the next ten years.

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** DELAWARE GOV. CARNEY (D) NOMINATES TWO STATE SUPREME COURT JUSTICES
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Delaware Governor John Carney (D) has nominated Associate Justice Collins Seitz Jr. to replace Leo Strine ([link removed]) as the next chief justice of the Delaware Supreme Court. Carney also nominated Tamika Montgomery-Reeves to serve as a new associate justice, replacing Seitz.

* Chief Justice Strine announced in July 2019 that he would retire in the fall upon the nomination, confirmation, and swearing in of his successor.
* Seitz joined the Delaware Supreme Court as an associate justice in 2015. He was appointed by Gov. Jack Markell (D). Seitz received a B.A. from the University of Delaware in 1980 and a J.D. from Villanova University School of Law.
* Montgomery-Reeves is a vice chancellor of the Delaware Court of Chancery. She was nominated by Gov. Markell in 2015. Montgomery-Reeves received a bachelor's degree from the University of Mississippi and a J.D. from the University of Georgia School of Law.

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** BALLOT MEASURES UPDATE
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** _2019_
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Thirty-two statewide measures ([link removed]) will be on Nov. 2019 ballots in Colorado, Kansas, Maine, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Texas, and Washington.

* Four Louisiana measures were on the Oct. 12 ballot. Two were approved, and two were defeated.
* Besides the 24 binding 2019 statewide measures, Washington voters will see 12 non-binding advisory votes ([link removed]) concerning revenue-increasing bills recently passed by the legislature that were automatically added to the ballot.
* Click here ([link removed]) to read Ballotpedia’s list of the top 10 measures to watch for the Nov. 5 election, including both state and local measures.


** _2020_
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Forty-two statewide measures ([link removed]) in 20 states have been certified for the 2020 ballot so far.

* Seven of the 42 certified 2020 measures are citizen-initiated measures. Thirty-four are legislative referrals. One is an automatic constitutional revision commission question.

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** SPECIAL ELECTIONS UPDATE
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So far this year, 77 state legislative special elections have been scheduled in 24 states. Special elections have been held for 55 seats so far; heading into those races, Democrats had previously controlled 30 of the seats while Republicans previously controlled 25.

* Four seats have flipped from Democratic control to Republican control.
* One seat has flipped from Republican control to Democratic control.
* One seat has flipped from Republican control to an independent officeholder.


** _UPCOMING SPECIAL ELECTIONS_
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NOVEMBER 5

* Alabama House of Representatives District 42 ([link removed])
* Arkansas House of Representatives District 36 ([link removed])
* California State Assembly District 1 ([link removed])
* Georgia House of Representatives District 152 ([link removed])
* Kentucky House of Representatives District 18 ([link removed])
* Kentucky House of Representatives District 63 ([link removed])
* Mississippi State Senate District 50 ([link removed])
* Missouri House of Representatives District 22 ([link removed])
* Missouri House of Representatives District 36 ([link removed])
* Missouri House of Representatives District 74 ([link removed])
* Missouri House of Representatives District 78 ([link removed])
* Missouri House of Representatives District 99 ([link removed])
* Missouri House of Representatives District 158 ([link removed])
* New Jersey State Senate District 1 ([link removed])
* New York State Senate District 57 ([link removed])
* Tennessee House of Representatives District 77 (primary) ([link removed])
* Texas House of Representatives District 28 ([link removed])
* Texas House of Representatives District 100 ([link removed])
* Texas House of Representatives District 148 ([link removed])
* Washington State Senate District 40 ([link removed])
* Washington House of Representatives District 13-Position 2 ([link removed])

NOVEMBER 12

* Alabama House of Representatives District 74 ([link removed])

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** STATES IN SESSION
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Five states—Massachusetts, Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin—are in regular session ([link removed]) . Illinois, New Jersey, North Carolina, and Virginia are in recess. Forty-one states have adjourned their 2019 legislative sessions.

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