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The overall results for October again show the disconnect between the recovery of jobs lost during the pandemic and workers returning to the workforce. The change in nonfarm jobs (96,800) was 16% above average so far this year; employment gains (32,700) were less than half. The improvement in the October jobs number was to be expected, as it was the first full month of jobs data following the expiration of enhanced federal unemployment insurance benefits. However, a closer look at the data shows that overall labor force participation was little changed. Meanwhile, inflation continues to erode the substantial hourly wage gains that typically entice workers back into the workforce.
While most of the comparisons in this report and elsewhere measure recovery in terms of the pre-COVID levels in February 2020, the state lockdowns also shut off what was relatively strong growth in 2019. Full recovery consequently should instead be considered in how long it will take for the state to return to trend. Continuing the somewhat lower recovery rates experienced over the past three months would push back a return to the pre-Covid trend levels to the end of 2023.
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