Council on Foreign Relations
Daily News Brief
November 23, 2021
Editor’s note: There will be no Daily Brief until Monday, November 29, for Thanksgiving.
Top of the Agenda
OPEC+ Warns of Response as Washington Taps Strategic Oil Reserve
Officials from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and allied oil-producing countries, collectively known as OPEC+, warned they will likely respond (Bloomberg) to the United States’ plan to release fifty million barrels of oil (Hill) from its Strategic Petroleum Reserve in an effort to control fuel prices. The plan comes after OPEC+ resisted Washington’s calls to boost production and pits the United States against its allies in OPEC+, such as Saudi Arabia.
 
The United States’ release will be taken in coordination (CBS) with releases by other countries, including China, India, Japan, South Korea, and the United Kingdom. The United States plans to return thirty-two million barrels of oil to its reserve in the coming years.
Analysis
“At stake is the price of the world’s most important commodity as politicians and central bankers contend with the strongest inflationary surge in more than a decade,” Bloomberg’s Ari Natter, Jennifer Jacobs, and Jennifer A. Dlouhy write.

“While U.S. and European oil majors and other energy companies are busy selling off assets to comply with decarbonization mandates, global demand for fossil fuels continues to rise—especially in China and India, the world’s most populous countries. This leaves national oil companies such as Saudi Aramco with the opportunity to reclaim market power, earn vast profits, and shift the center of oil and gas production back to OPEC,” the Atlantic Council’s Ellen R. Wald and Jonathan H. Ferziger write for Foreign Policy.

This Backgrounder looks at OPEC in a changing world.

Pacific Rim
Chinese Official: Companies Supporting Taiwan’s Independence Will Be ‘Punished’
The spokesperson for China’s Taiwan Affairs Office made the comment (Business Insider) after Beijing fined Taiwan-based conglomerate Far Eastern Group for a range of violations.

Australia: The country’s national weather agency declared that a La Niña event has developed (BBC) for the second consecutive year, bringing greater risks of floods in Australia and significant weather changes in other parts of the world.

South and Central Asia
India’s Modi Reportedly Seeks to Delay Labor Reforms
Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi reportedly plans to delay controversial labor reforms (Bloomberg) until after local elections next year in hopes of avoiding the kind of backlash that led to the cancellation of certain farm laws last week.
 
Myanmar: The National Unity Government, which opposes the junta, raised $6.3 million (Reuters) on the first day of its bonds sale. Most buyers of the bonds were Myanmar nationals living abroad.

Middle East and North Africa
UN Nuclear Chief Visits Tehran to Prep for Nuclear Talks
A spokesperson for Iran’s foreign ministry said Iran hoped the visit (AFP) by International Atomic Energy Agency Director General Rafael Mariano Grossi would be “constructive.” Talks on reviving the 2015 Iran nuclear deal are set to resume next week.
 
CFR President Richard Haass discusses Iran’s nuclear choices.
 
Israel/Morocco: Israeli Defense Minister Benny Gantz travels to Morocco today (Times of Israel) to formalize defense cooperation between the countries, which normalized ties last year.
This Day in History: November 23, 1981
U.S. President Ronald Reagan authorizes the CIA to organize anti-communist contras to oppose the ruling leftist Sandinistas in Nicaragua. Support for the contras becomes highly controversial in the United States, leading to the 1985 Iran-Contra affair.

Sub-Saharan Africa
Ethiopia’s Abiy Says He Will Lead Army ‘From the Battlefront’
Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s announcement came as Tigrayan rebel groups advanced toward Ethiopia’s capital (Al Jazeera), Addis Ababa. 
 
CFR’s Michelle Gavin discusses the dire outlook in Ethiopia after a year of conflict.
 
Kenya: The country will bar people who are not vaccinated (Quartz) against COVID-19 from accessing in-person government services. Only around 4 percent of Kenyans are vaccinated.

Europe
European Lawmakers to Vote on Farm Subsidies Bill
The bill, set for a vote today, would require the European Union (EU) to devote around a third (Reuters) of its 2021–27 budget to supporting farmers and rural development.
 
Portugal: Portugal became the fourth EU country (AP) to stop generating electricity using coal-fired power plants.
 
This In Brief discusses whether the world can slash coal use by 2030.

Americas
Canada’s Liberal Party to Lay Out New Agenda in Speech
As the Liberal Party of Canada begins its third term in office today (CBC), Governor General Mary Simon will deliver a speech that is expected to focus on the country’s recovery from the pandemic.
 
El Salvador: The top U.S. diplomat in the country said she is leaving her post (AP) and that El Salvador “shows no interest” in improving its relationship with the United States.
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