Our Deputy Research Director Richard Wellings, who leaves us this week with our very best wishes, has been with the IEA for 15 years. By the time of my arrival he was renowned – very justly, as I soon saw – for the precision of his copy-editing and production work; and the sharpest eye for an author’s misexpression. His own contributions to our research output focused on transport matters, with a string of astute analyses of poorly-aimed interventions, counterproductive policy, and the command-and-controller’s ways of wasting other people’s time and money.
Among them was a crushing paper from 2013 on the politics of HS2 – one of three on that project. The route changes were argued to suit political interests and additional expense arising from tunnelling shown to be planned to placate local opponents of overground rail. Richard was precisely on the point that whatever the merits (or more likely, otherwise) of the project, once planning is far enough advanced, the political process introduces extra costs as every part of the plan is potentially susceptible to forceful lobbying. And every time, there is a chance, or a good chance, that the easier route is to buy off the opposition to the plan – predictably, inevitably, therefore, increasing costs.
His outstanding paper (written with Martin Cassini) on traffic control could be a case study of the failings of the regulatory state. The authors documented an increase in traffic regulation, through the introduction of traffic lights, for example, out of all proportion to any increase in traffic. They questioned the value of these interventions and noted the failure to conduct proper cost-benefit analyses. There are cases where the benefits of bus and cycle lanes offer too little compensation for the loss of space, and consequent congestion, they cause. What about the consequences for small and local business of parking restrictions?
And then there is the emphatic point that a large enough number of ‘negligible’ costs can lead to some pretty big numbers. The authors argued that a two-minute delay to every car trip carried a cost of about £16bn per year (2016 pounds, and no allowance for vehicles other than cars!).
As I write, one more paper on transport after Covid is approaching the end of the publication ‘pipeline’ and will see the light of day shortly. Richard has made a great contribution all round. We must not only wish him well, but wish him to continue to contribute to our output, too.
Dr James Forder
Academic and Research Director, Institute of Economic Affairs
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NOT ADDING UP
The week began with NHS Chief Amanda Pritchard warning that "we have had 14 times the number of people in hospital with Covid-19 than we saw this time last year."
Though many journalists failed to challenge the idea that there could now be 150,000 Covid patients in hospital, our Head of Lifestyle Economics Christopher Snowdon was quick to debunk the "preposterous" claim. In an article for CapX, he condemned Pritchard's contribution to the pool of fake news, and questioned how the media could parrot the figure, writing:
"The idea that there are 14 times as many people in hospital with Covid than at the start of the November 2020 lockdown is so patently absurd to anyone with a passing knowledge of the statistics that it should have never been allowed to stand. The headlines should have been along the lines of 'NHS England chief innumeracy shocker'."
Read here. Christopher's comments were also quoted in the Daily Mail and Telegraph.
But this bizarre episode is part of a wider pattern of journalists misreporting Covid data. As Christopher has pointed out, some media organisations will "print and report anything, no matter how absurd, if it makes the UK look as though it's in a bad situation". Watch his interview on GB News on the issue here.
Media misreporting was also discussed on this week's Live with Littlewood. Economist Dr Andrew Lilico pointed out that, to Wednesday, cases had been contracting for 18 days in a row. He asked whether, at some point, this might become a matter for Ofcom to intervene, and suggested that a major issue during this crisis has been the media struggling to identify "who knew anything that was relevant... just because it's about a virus, doesn't mean you want a virologist."
IEA Director General Mark Littlewood was also joined on the sofa by GB News presenter Patrick Christys, the TaxPayers' Alliance's Danielle Boxall, John Macdonald of the Adam Smith Institute and the IEA's Head of Media Emily Carver. Audience members included subscribers to IEA Patreon – to find out how you can support our digital work and watch a future episode in person, click here.
In addition to dodgy statistics, the panel discussed whether MPs should have second jobs (or whether being an MP should be the second job) and corporate wokery. Catch up here.
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iN THE MEDIA
Quick to judge... On the subject of wokery, is it time for liberals to mount an effective opposition to Cancel Culture? In a piece for 1828, our Head of Political Economy Dr Kristian Niemietz recommends we climb down from the "lofty heights of the meta-level," and become more judgemental about the behaviours of private organisations and private individuals. Read here.
Grasping the nettle... In her latest column for The Spectator Coffee House, IEA Director of Communications Annabel Denham queries whether barring GPs from taking jobs in wealthy areas to force them to work in deprived ones is really the best way to tackle health inequalities – or address forthcoming doctor shortages. Read here.
Identity politics... And writing for Conservative Home, Emily Carver unpicked new research from the Nuffield Trust claiming that inequality among NHS staff members of different races and religions "is getting worse". While genuine prejudice should be tackled resolutely, Emily suggests that the NHS act as a meritocratic organisation, and avoid imposing expensive diversity and inclusion measures. Read here.
The road ahead... GDP data, released on Thursday, may mean the UK economy remains on track to beat expectations this year, but as IEA Economics Fellow Julian Jessop pointed out, the cost of living is a growing concern for many households. He said:
"The government should therefore focus on supporting the recovery rather than tightening fiscal policy prematurely: growth, not tax increases, is the best way to repair the public finances. The Bank of England also still needs to act soon to restore credibility and signal that it is not complacent about inflation."
Julian also responded to Rishi Sunak’s decision to freeze inheritance tax thresholds until 2026, telling the Daily Express:
"My personal view is that it should be abolished. I just don’t see what it is about dying that means you should pay tax. It doesn’t make an awful lot of sense to me."
Chinese puzzle... As recently as 1981, 88 per cent of the Chinese population was living in extreme poverty; today it is less than 1 per cent. How was this possible? Read historian Rainer Zitelmann's explanation in a new IEA blog here. Also on the blog, Gary M Galles, Professor of Economics at Pepperdine University, writes on rent controls, minimum wage laws, and how public policies "all-too-frequently fail to adequately distinguish like from unlike". Read here.
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TEACHING ECONOMICS IN THE POST-COVID WORLD
We were delighted to host our most recent Teachers' Seminar this week, a bi-annual event run in conjunction with the Vinson Centre at the University of Buckingham. The day is designed to help teachers in supporting their students as they prepare for A-levels and the IB.
This term the topic was 'teaching economics in the post-Covid world,' and 15 teachers from across England descended on our offices to hear from speakers including IEA Senior Academic Fellow and Vinson Centre Director Professor Philip Booth, IEA Editorial and Research Fellow Professor Len Shackleton, and our Head of Regulatory Affairs Victoria Hewson.
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TIME FOR A (STUDENT) CHALLENGE
The IEA has launched the Monetary Policy Essay Competition, in partnership with the Vinson Centre and the Institute of International Monetary Research. This year’s question is: 'Does inflation matter? And will the current inflation upturn be transitory or not?'
Submissions to the Budget Challenge are also open. Schools can enter teams of up to four students to put together a submission that will outline a budget with taxation and spending policy for the United Kingdom in the coming financial year. The deadline to submit is Friday 28 January 2022.
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IN CASE YOU MISSED IT
As government considers the results of the Gambling Act review and draws up plans for a white paper in the coming months, what should future gambling regulation look like? This was the question posed to panellists at our "A Safer Bet?" event at Conservative Party Conference. Speakers included Christopher Snowdon, who earlier this year authored a report on the risks of over-regulation, Conservative MP Scott Benton, and Brigid Simmonds, Chairman of the Betting & Gaming Council.
In the latest episode of Markets and Morality, Epicenter Director Adam Bartha asks: Should achieving net zero by 2050 be supported by free-market liberals? With panellists Bruno Prior (Director at Summerleaze Ltd and member of the IEA Board of Trustees) and Carlo Stagnaro (of the Istituto Bruno Leoni), Adam explored whether we can reach net zero via market based policies, whether the very concept of this target is anti-market, and the benefits or otherwise of international discussions on these issues.
You can watch the episode on our YouTube channel from 9.30am this morning.
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YOU'RE INVITED
The IEA Book Club will host an event with renowned British journalist, businessman and author Matt Ridley on his latest book Viral – The Search for the Origin of Covid-19.
This event is taking place this Wednesday, 17 November from 6pm at the IEA and will be chaired by IEA Director General Mark Littlewood. You can find out more here.
The IEA Book Club will also welcome Dr George Maher to discuss his latest book Pugnare – Economic Success and Failure on Monday, 29 November, from 6-8pm. Find out more here.
On Tuesday 23 November, the Institute of International Monetary Research will host Lord Mervyn King, economist and former Governor of the Bank of England at the Royal Automobile Club.
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WE ARE HIRING!
Our Communications team is looking for a new Digital Communications Manager to take on responsibility for our fantastic digital output. This year alone our YouTube channel has had over 2 million views. If you have a passion for free markets and experience using digital channels to engage audiences old and new, apply here! The deadline is this Friday, 19 November.
Internships... Applications for our general internship programme are open. If you wish to apply for the Winter 2022 IEA Internship programme, running from 5 January to 1 April 2022, you must do so by 11:59 PM on Sunday 7 November 2021. Apply here.
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