This Issue: Pelosi: House to vote on budget reconciliation amnesty next week

There were no votes in Congress this week, so things were relatively quiet, but here are three updates on the budget reconciliation amnesty that could drive the news next week...

1) PELOSI SAYS HOUSE WILL VOTE NEXT WEEK ON BBB AMNESTY

Just before Congress left town last week, the House approved a rule to begin debate on Pres. Biden's Build Back Better legislation that Democrats hope to pass through the budget reconciliation process in order to avoid a Senate filibuster. This week, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi confirmed that the House will vote on the approximately $2 trillion budget reconciliation amnesty bill before the Thanksgiving recess.

We've heard this before. Back in September, Pelosi cut a deal with moderate House Democrats, guaranteeing a floor vote on the Senate-passed infrastructure bill by Sept. 30. The House didn't vote on that bill until Nov. 5.

That being said, the House vote on budget reconciliation is only the first step of the process, so we expect Pelosi to hold a vote on the bill, assuming she has the votes to pass it.

A small group of moderate House Democrats said they won't vote for the bill until they see a cost analysis from the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office (CBO). While a full report from the CBO isn't expected before the end of next week, most expect enough analysis to be released earlier in the week to address the concerns from moderates.

As a reminder, the House version of the legislation includes granting work permits and legal status, called parole, to an estimated 7.9 million illegal aliens. The legislation also includes approximately 1.2 million additional green cards over the next 10 years, primarily for employers.

Please look for our Action Alerts next week as we urge House Members to strip the immigration provisions from the budget reconciliation bill. We are especially focused on a group of about a dozen Democrats who have expressed concern over those provisions.

2) SINEMA SIGNS OFF ON AMNESTY

The Senate is expected to make wholesale changes to whatever the House passes, and all eyes have been on two moderate Senators who could decide the legislation's fate -- Joe Manchin of West Virginia and Kyrsten Sinema of Arizona.

Sen. Sinema has mostly focused on the tax provisions and been silent on the immigration provisions ... until this week.

On Wednesday, Sinema told reporters:

I do support the immigration proposals that are being offered in the upcoming reconciliation package. I also recognize that there are legal limitations to what can be done in a reconciliation package.

To translate, Sinema says she'll support whatever immigration provisions the House sends over as long as the Senate Parliamentarian signs off.

While the Senate Parliamentarian has already reviewed and ruled that the more traditional amnesties Democrats hoped to add to the budget reconciliation bill would violate Senate rules, she hasn't been asked to rule on the "parole" amnesty that is now in the House bill. Senate Judiciary Chairman Dick Durbin has said he'll submit whatever the House passes to the Parliamentarian for her review, instead of being proactive like he had with his two earlier amnesty proposals.

3) MANCHIN BEARISH ON BUILD BACK BETTER BILL

Meanwhile, Sen. Manchin threw some cold water on the budget reconciliation process this week after the release of new inflation data.

On Wednesday, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) revealed that inflation was up 6.2% in October compared to a year ago. Sen. Manchin's concerns over budget reconciliation have been mostly over the bill's price tag and how it would impact inflation. In response to the CPI report, he said:

By all accounts, the threat posed by record inflation to the American people is not 'transitory' and is instead getting worse. From the grocery store to the gas pump, Americans know the inflation tax is real and DC can no longer ignore the economic pain Americans feel every day.

Manchin said that he thinks Congress should focus on several bills it must pass before the end of the year, instead of on budget reconciliation.

Unfortunately, Manchin doesn't control what the House does and what bills Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer decides to bring to the Senate floor for a vote. He's also said previously that he'll support whatever immigration provisions the Senate Parliamentarian allows the Democrats to include in the budget reconciliation bill.

Still, Manchin is one of the two deciding votes, so his hesitancy on the overall bill is a good sign in the fight to stop amnesty.

Chris Chmielenski NumbersUSA Deputy Director