Dear John,

It’s been just over a week since the elections in Virginia, and we’ve been busy crunching the numbers and receiving updates from campaign staff on the ground.

First, an update on where we stand in the House of Delegates. Two races remain that could leave the House in a partisan tie: Alex Askew’s race in HD-85, and Martha Mugler’s in HD-91.

As votes have continued to come in since Election Day, both Alex and Martha are now less than 200 votes down. This is a testament to the impact of the Sister District community, which contacted more than 225,00 voters by phone alone! With nearly 30,000 votes cast in each race, it’s likely they will both go to a recount, which could take many weeks.

What happened in Virginia?
Every election sees its fair share of Wednesday-morning quarterbacking; as soon as the polls close, hot takes and uninformed analysis flood the airwaves. At Sister District, we believe in following the data – and the full data set (the “voter file”) won’t be available until early next year.

However, there are some things we can say for sure. You can read our latest 2021 election analysis on our blog, but here’s a taste:

This was not a Republican landslide. The margins of loss, and often victory, were incredibly small. Campaign professionals tend to think of 2-4 points the “field margin” – within the margin of error for polls, and where field tactics and other factors can make a difference.
Early voting is no longer a Democratic panacea. Conventional wisdom that early and absentee vote has a vast disproportionate benefit for Democrats must be put permanently to bed – it wasn’t true in 2020, and it wasn’t true this year either. The Youngkin campaign embraced this, encouraging supporters to vote early in person or by mail and holding rallies near early voting locations.
Demographics are not destiny. Virginia has gotten more diverse, and more blue – it went for Biden by 10 points in 2020. But, Republicans are waking up to the fact that investing in communities of color, young people, and other historically Democratic voters makes a difference. Democrats must do the hard work of long-term organizing and making a tangible difference to convince voters that the party is worth their vote.

This election was far from a Republican slam dunk. In fact, many races were decided on such slim margins that just a few votes could have tipped the scales either way. Our work contacting, persuading, and turning out voters made a huge difference.

While we can’t say with certainty what this election means for the midterms, one thing is clear: Republicans are not retreating, and 2022 will be a difficult fight. We are committed to staying in it for the long haul, and we know that together we can have an impact greater than the sum of our parts. Thank you for staying with us.

In solidarity,
The Sister District Team