Friend,

The Democratic Party has a huge messaging problem and it could very well cost them the next two cycles.

The last century saw a debate on how Western democracies should wage war when attacked. In WW1, the British famously said "Gentlemen do not read each other's mail." By WW2, Churchill declared "Set Europe ablaze." If we are going to defeat Trumpism and save democracy, it's time for Democrats to ask themselves what kind of party they want to be in 2022 and 2024.

Democrats are making real progress that benefits the daily lives of Americans - there's no doubt about it. From the infrastructure bill they passed just last week, the record Dow, unemployment dropping from 6.3% in January to 4.8% by adding an incredible 5 million jobs. Not to mention 220 million vaccines administered in only 10 months.

The states that will benefit the most from infrastructure dollars, new jobs, and free vaccines are the states that depend the most on federal dollars, like my home state of Mississippi where 40% of the budget comes from the feds. But watch those Republicans attack Biden while loving the money. That's the same bullshit they learned to mimic from their hypocrite-in-chief, Mitch McConnell, who managed to add $10 trillion to the deficit in barely a decade (a feat so monumental it took former Senates over two hundred years to accomplish.)

Friend – people are asking us what 2022 is going to look like.

On one hand, I helped elect Republican governors in a ton of deep blue states and none of those states went on to support Republican federal or presidential candidates in the subsequent election years. So, if you're thinking about Virginia and feeling tempted to extrapolate out that result across the country, it's important to remember that these races are often representative of state-specific issues. 

There's a different mindset people have when they vote for governor than when they vote for a nationalized agenda that is part of a federal race. In fact, a lot of people elect for balance – classically you see this when it comes to fiscal issues.

On the other hand, and I realize the contradiction here, I think the Democrats have a real messaging problem. They've gotten a lot done – had some huge successes – but they've gotten themselves stuck in a message cycle of focusing on process instead of results.

In this current cycle, it's challenging of course to break out of this habit. Ask yourself this – what was a headline that you remember from two days ago?

Here’s the reality – Democrats need to fight like the country is at stake. It is.

And if you think that sounds alarmist, remember back to the beginning of the pandemic. The idea that a virus could sweep across this country, killing hundreds of thousands of our citizens and we'd have people refusing to get vaccinated or wear a mask... that idea would have sounded impossible. Now, the urgency of those early messages seems inadequate.

That's what's happening with our democracy. It sounds alarmist now – but if the Republican party gets their way, in the end, this email itself will seem woefully inadequate.

Not only is it important that we say this over and over as The Lincoln Project so we can reach as many voters as possible – it's difficult for anyone else to deliver this exact message. The White House can't come out and say this without alienating a bunch of people.

What so many people are failing to understand is that the Republican party has given up on governance. They had a chance to change course. They saw the demographic changes coming to this country years and years ago. They faced the choice of becoming a party that more people could support or becoming a party that made it difficult for more people to vote. They became the white grievance party by choice.

They are living in an anti-reality. One where there isn't a semblance of truth. And without truth when it comes to dealing with history, there can be no truth in the present. When you don't like your reality, you try to create your own reality – and that's what the Republican party is doing right now. And it wouldn't be such a big deal if it weren't entirely possible that they have a viable road map to change the rules of democracy so much that they will be able to maintain power through what is predominantly a white power base even while the country changes demographiclly. This is why Republicans are flocking to mimic the model of Viktork Orbán in Hungary.

Or maybe Republicans will follow the lead of reelected Nicaraguan President, Daniel Ortega. Just like Orbán, he got his start in politics in the 70’s fighting to bring democracy to his country and throw out the militarized war lords that ruled much of Central America at the time. When he finally became president, he spent the next decade chipping away at the very democracy he’d fought for.  He jailed journalists, opposition leaders, and business executives – anyone he needed to quiet and keep out of the media. On election day, just last week, he bussed state employees to the polls and kept out outside media. Ortega, now in his mid-70s, is being called a dictator. Tell me Trump doesn’t dream of winning this way.

This war of theirs could bring about a future that couldn’t be less like the America dreamt up by our founders. One with ethnic nationalism, closed to the outside world, devoid of constitutional safeguards and strangled by a deeply-corrupt concentration of power.

And don’t doubt for a second that they see it as a war.

We can’t fight a war with a message. Especially the wrong one.

And we can’t fight this war without you.

– Stuart