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… read about why carbon Offsets are more like carbon Takeoffs.

A new working paper [[link removed]] by a group of economists investigates whether carbon offsets — the idea of balancing carbon-emitting activities with new investment in things that take carbon out of the atmosphere — actually work. Looking at the world’s largest carbon offset program, the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM), the researchers conclude that it is, in the classical sense, both bad and bougie. They look at wind farm projects in India, some of which are supported by the CDM and some built with private finance. They find that over half the wind farms built with CDM money would have been built anyway without subsidies — that is, CDM produced no actual carbon offsetting in those cases. Instead, in those cases CDM just lined the pockets of developers while allowing polluters to write off further carbon emissions.

Being like a state

The sole requirement for a polity to become a state in the international system is for other states to recognize it as one. A lot of ink has been spilled about how existing states decide who to recognize and when, but a new article [[link removed]] by political scientist Karim El Taki looks at the strategies polities use to induce states to recognize them.

El Taki focuses on Egypt in the wake of the 2013 military coup. The US — Egypt’s most important sponsor — was withholding support and arms sales to the new government, demanding a return to democratic rule.

Among the strategies Egypt used to bring the US back onside was to pursue arms sales from other countries. As El Taki points out, these sales were not militarily effective replacements for US arms — adding 46 MiG-29s to your fleet of over 200 F-16s is not a recipe for military efficiency. Instead, they served to signal that the gains the US reaps from recognizing Egypt might be available to other sponsors, and that it would be the US’s loss if sponsorships shifted. The move worked, and the US ended [[link removed]] its freeze on military exports to Egypt in 2015.

FORWARD TO A FRIEND [[link removed]] Deforestation in Nicaragua

Nicaragua holds the second-largest rainforest in the western hemisphere, and it’s disappearing at a faster rate than forests in any other country. A new investigation [[link removed]] by the Organized Crime and Corruption Reporting Project highlights the grim politics behind the loss of tree cover in Nicaragua.

Deforestation is heaviest in the northern and southern tips of the country, where the greatest concentrations of indigenous people live. Violent land grabs have been major drivers of deforestation. In 2020, the number of people killed in land and environmental disputes in the country doubled, making Nicaragua the deadliest place in the world for environmental defenders.

Human rights groups have accused the Nicaraguan government of backing the land grabs, with one calling land grabs targeting indigenous communities “a policy of covert internal colonization by the State.”

FORWARD TO A FRIEND [[link removed]] DEEP DIVE Opportunity seizure: Part II

In last week’s Deep Dive, we looked at new research on how states are using the opportunity provided by the COVID-19 pandemic to expand their repressive repertoires. This week we’ll look at a different kind of state opportunism — the kind of ontological opportunism states grasp when their version of the truth is pitted against the stories told by civilians and international organizations in conflict.

In a forthcoming article [[link removed]], scholars Christiane Wilke and Khalid Mohd Naseemi investigate the wide gaps between different estimates of civilian casualties resulting from US operations in Afghanistan. As an opening case study, they look at a US airstrike in Herat province in 2008 that killed a number of civilians who were near an insurgent fighting position. At first, the US military denied that there had been any civilian casualties. Eventually, however, US forces claimed that the strike had killed 33 civilians and 22 insurgents. The Afghanistan Independent Human Rights Commission (AIHRC) — an independent Afghan investigative body associated with the Afghan government — said that 91 people had been killed, of whom at least 78 were civilians, which is over twice the number claimed by the US. The UN Assistance Mission in Afghanistan (UNAMA) said that 92 civilians had been killed in the strike.

Wilke and Naseemi are interested in both the technical and political reasons for these kinds of discrepancies. In their persuasive telling, it is primarily the political prerogatives of a being a powerful state that allow the US to consistently lowball civilian casualty estimates.

There are technological differences between how the US and other actors go about establishing civilian death tolls. The US military uses its substantial surveillance abilities to track physical evidence of civilian casualties. It has access to video of many airstrikes, as well as video of strike targets in the minutes (and sometimes hours and days) leading up to airstrikes and significant expertise in interpreting that video. It also has internal reports from people who conduct the strikes. Combined, the US military’s reliance on these technical inputs constitute what Wilke and Naseemi call a “forensic turn” in US evaluation of civilian casualties. By claiming that these technical methods are definitive, the US can reject the kind of work that AIHRC, UNAMA, and other groups do to investigate civilian casualties.

The work that the US rejects basically boils down to one thing: Talking to people. The US flatly refuses to interview non-military witnesses to airstrikes, and has severely criticized investigations that involve witness testimony. Complaining about the UNAMA and AIHRC reports on the 2008 strike, US General Michael Calahan said that witness testimonies were “tainted by alleged witnesses’ interest in seeking financial, political, and/or survival agendas.” Setting aside the general’s concern about the apparently perfidious “survival agendas” of civilians in wartime, his statement draws its weight from the implication that the US forensic approach is somehow free from bias.

Yet, as Wilke and Naseemi argue, the forensic turn and the devaluing of witness testimony is not only biased, but serves to reify the advantages the US enjoys in being the dominant interpreter of its own actions. One of the largest sources of discrepancy Wilke and Naseemi found in their research is differences in who counts as a civilian. A 2019 US airstrike in Farah province is a case in point. US forces bombed a suspected drug lab in Farah, killing or injuring as many as 145 people. The US reported exactly zero civilian casualties from the strike, effectively claiming that if you worked in a drug factory that paid taxes to the Taliban, you could not count as a civilian. UNAMA, conversely, spoke to people in the area who reported that many who worked in the drug lab did so out of economic necessity or as a result of Taliban coercion, and were not Taliban members themselves. UNAMA issued a report saying that it had verified 30 civilian deaths in the airstrike, but estimated that there were far more.

These discrepancies in definition and witness legitimacy draw on what Wilke and Naseemi call “racialized hierarchies of credibility.” The US draws on racialized perceptions of Afghans as being fundamentally less trustworthy than actors from major, white-led institutions to create opportunities to tell the accepted story about its own actions in Afghanistan. Even UNAMA does this, although to a lesser extent. After all, it does speak with Afghans, but the credibility of its reports is a reflection on the esteem in which the UN is held, rather than the Afghan witnesses they rely on. The way race and institutional hierarchies shape public perceptions about who can be believed, therefore, is maybe the single greatest mediator of truth in armed conflict. It is the difference, in the popular imagination, between 33 people being killed in an ill-considered airstrike seven years into a two decade war, or 92 being killed in the same strike.

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FORWARD TO A FRIEND [[link removed]] SHOW US THE RECEIPTS

Monica Campbell profiled [[link removed]] Mackenson Rémy, a Haitian journalist who does a traffic report that doubles as an up-to-the-minute digest of the political situation in Port-au-Prince. Rémy wakes up early each morning and traverses the city by jeep or motorcycle, gathering news for his popular segments on Radio Caraibes. His reports include the usual traffic accidents and jams, but also highlight protests, police and gang activity, and the state of ongoing bus and taxi driver strikes. The city is divided between gang and government control, but Rémy can travel anywhere, and his reports have become unmissable for people trying to get around safely.

Trevor Thrall and Jordan Cohen highlighted [[link removed]] some of the ways that US weapons sales and military training during the US war in Afghanistan is now fueling instability in the country. As they pointed out, some members of elite Afghan units trained by the US have defected to the Islamic State-Khorosan group in recent weeks, sometimes bringing stores of US weapons with them. In all, the US exported over 600,000 small arms and artillery pieces to Afghanistan, which are now being fought over by the Taliban government and Islamic State insurgents. Thrall and Cohen urged Congress to get serious about ensuring improved end use monitoring for weapons sold by the US and to act to limit future sales.

Daisy Contreras reported [[link removed]] on a verdict in a federal trial that would force private prison companies to pay immigration detainees minimum wage for work they do in detention. Major for-profit prison operators, like GEO Group, run Immigration and Customs Enforcement detention facilities that house close to 80% of immigration detainees. While there, detainees are made to clean the facilities, cook, and do other tasks. The State of Washington, where one such facility is located, found that GEO Group was paying detainees just $1 per day for their labor. The state attorney general sued, and won a verdict requiring that GEO pay the state’s minimum wage of roughly $13 per hour. The verdict could mean that thousands of current and former detainees are owed significant back pay.

FORWARD TO A FRIEND [[link removed]] WELL PLAYED

Bob The Builder is also [[link removed]] in the Warsaw Pact in Call of Duty canon. When you play them together, it’s the hammer and sickle team.

This [[link removed]] is actually a rational approach from millennials, for whom witnessing Irish reunification is much more likely than ever being able to retire.

Sometimes the CIA gets too horny [[link removed]] and forgets it’s supposed to be doing counterrevolution.

Who says data journalism [[link removed]] can’t be touchy-feely?

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Critical State is written by Sam Ratner with Inkstick Media.

The World is a weekday public radio show and podcast on global issues, news and insights from PRX and GBH.

With an online magazine and podcast featuring a diversity of expert voices, Inkstick Media is “foreign policy for the rest of us.”

Critical State is made possible in part by the Carnegie Corporation of New York.

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