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PHOTOGRAPH BY KEVIN FRAYER, GETTY IMAGES
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Meanwhile, the rich countries aren’t keeping their promises of financial support to help developing countries forestall catastrophe. That failure to act with enlightened self-interest will no doubt be much discussed at Glasgow.
Even if all countries were to meet their pledges to cut emissions, writes Alejandra Borunda, Earth would still warm 2.7°C (4.9°F) by 2100, well beyond the Paris target. That’s more bad news. The good news is that Earth would only warm 2.7°C. A decade ago, when emissions were still rising much faster than they have lately, we were looking at more than 4°C warming by 2100. A huge growth in renewable energy has happened since.
“We’ve actually made an amazing amount of progress,” David Victor, a climate policy expert at the University of California San Diego, told Borunda. “That’s not stopping warming—it’s not well below 2 degrees, but it’s … much better than we were on track for before.”
Better, but nowhere near enough. COP26 won’t decide the future of humanity, but it’s an opportunity for negotiators to keep nudging the future onto a better track. On the second day, Borunda writes in our story today, representatives of more than 100 countries, led by the U.S. and the European Union, signed a pledge to cut their methane emissions 30 percent by 2030. If the whole world were to join in, it might shave another .2 degree off future warming. Also on this second day, more than 100 countries pledged to end deforestation by 2030. A similar agreement in 2014 had little impact—but maybe this time the deal will stick. (Related: The ways deforestation hurts the Earth.)
“This is a decisive decade in which we have an opportunity to prove ourselves,” President Biden said in his speech in Glasgow yesterday. Though there will be many more COPs, this one marked the return of the U.S. to the fight. “God bless you all, and may God save the planet,” Biden said, in closing his speech. But as he himself had just made plain, it’s not really God’s problem.
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