From Center for Immigration Studies <[email protected]>
Subject Monthly Data Shows Big Increase in the Foreign-Born
Date November 2, 2021 10:14 AM
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Immigrant population (legal and illegal) grew 1.6 million in past year 

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Monthly Data Shows Big Increase in the Foreign-Born ([link removed])
Immigrant population (legal and illegal) grew 1.6 million in past year
Washington, D.C. (November 2, 2021) - A Center for Immigration Studies analysis of the Census Bureau’s monthly Current Population Survey (CPS) shows that after falling for much of 2020, the total foreign-born population rebounded dramatically, increasing by 1.6 million from September 2020 to September 2021. Unlike border apprehensions or the number of visas issued to legal immigrants, the growth in the foreign-born population, also referred to as immigrants, provides insight into the number of immigrants actually living in the United States — reflecting both new arrivals (legal and illegal) and those who leave or die each year.

“There is a lot variation from month-to-month in the CPS, so any change should be interpreted cautiously. However, the dramatic increase in the total immigrant population in the past year almost certainly reflects the current surge of illegal immigration at the border, as well as the restarting of legal immigration.” said Dr. Steven Camarota, the Center’s director of research and co-author of the analysis.

The data show:

* The total immigrant or foreign born population (legal and illegal) rebounded to 45.4 million in September of 2021, a 1.6 million increase since September of 2020.


* The recent growth of 1.6 million follows a 1.1 million decline in the total immigrant population between September 2019 and September 2020.


* Hispanic immigrants (legal and illegal) account for about half (800,000) of the increase since last September. Both the federal government ([link removed]) and outside researchers ([link removed]) have previously estimated that roughly three-quarters of illegal immigrants are Hispanic, so the recent increase in Hispanic immigrants is an indication that illegal immigration has increased dramatically in the last year.


* The monthly data also suggests a “Trump effect” on immigration. During President Donald Trump’s four years in office (January 2017 to January 2021), the foreign-born population grew 1.6 million, which is less than half the 3.4 million growth during President Barack Obama’s second term (January 2013 to January 2017).


* Immigration in the last year of the Trump administration was impacted by the Covid-19 epidemic. During the first 3 years (January 2017 to January 2020) of Trump’s administration, which predate Covid, the immigrant population grew 1 million, compared to 3 million in the first three years of the second Obama administration (January 2013 to January 2016).


* The immigrant count in the monthly CPS has a margin of error of roughly ±500,000, making it necessary to compare changes over longer periods of time when drawing conclusions about trends.


* Growth in the total immigrant population can be caused only by new legal and illegal immigrants arriving from abroad, as births to immigrants in the U.S add to the native-born by definition. For the total immigrant population to grow, new arrivals must exceed the sum of natural mortality among the existing population of immigrants (roughly 300,000 per year) and the number who leave each year, which before Covid was estimated at nearly 1 million ([link removed]) annually.

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