Employees patrol a tank at a liquefied natural gas terminal operated by China Petrochemical Corporation (Sinopec Group) on February 10, 2021 in Qingdao, Shandong Province of China. (VCG via Getty Images)

President Biden is expected to call for ambitious reductions in global carbon emissions at the United Nations Climate Change conference in Glasgow this week, in a move that seeks to separate action on climate from broader geopolitical realities. Can such an approach have a meaningful impact, or will it increase Western energy dependency while tipping the balance toward Russia, Iran, and China's state-owned oil producers?

On the latest episode of Counterbalance, international energy expert U.S. Naval Postgraduate School Professor Brenda Schaffer joins Mike Doran and Marshall Kosloff to discuss the geopolitics of the global energy trade and why national security concerns  cannot be divorced from climate and energy policy.

Key Quotes

1. Energy and Climate Are National Security Issues

When China uses more electric vehicles [than other countries], we think, "Wow, they're doing great on climate." Well, most of their electricity is produced by coal, so that produces much more air pollution through [its conversion] to electricity.

By putting everything on electricity, you're increasing your risks of security of supply. You're also creating cyber risks. A pipeline system, power plant, anything can be hacked, but when you put it all on electricity or most on electricity, you're raising your likelihood of cyber threats.

2. Current Climate Policies Boost Iran's Energy Leverage

Public audiences in the West don't want big, bad oil anymore, but the needs have not gone away for oil, gas, or coal. [While] we've made it very difficult for oil and gas companies to operate in the West, they're still pumping in Russia and the Middle East. And it's just created a huge wealth transfer from the West to those national oil companies in the Middle East, in Russia, and other places.

If you're Iran right now and want to get back into the JCPOA [Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action] or secure the best conditions for yourself, you just need to do a few more attacks like they did in 2019 on Saudi Arabian infrastructure and other oil infrastructure. Get oil up to a hundred dollars a barrel, and you'll see the U.S. running for a deal that might be much more advantageous to Iran than what the U.S. had expected.

3. Renewable Energy Exacts Immense Environmental Costs

Most of what you need for today's renewable energy entails a lot of mining. And mining produces a lot of emissions. These materials are generally mined in countries where their electricity is [derived from] coal. Whether it's Indonesia, India, or Congo, it takes expensive, polluting forms of energy to mine these materials that make your little clean electric vehicles and other electrification.

Current renewables, mainly solar and wind, have huge land usage, so we cannot scale up solar and wind to the levels of energy intensity that you get out of natural gas, nuclear, coal, without destroying most of your open spaces. We have to look at the full environmental and climate impact of renewable energy. It's not free and it's not without environmental impact.

Quotes may be edited for clarity and length.

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