The Doomed Special Session
The foredoomed—er, I mean Fourth—Special Session times out next week. It's been… less than productive. The only way anyone saw that coming was to give it even the most fleeting glance.
The Fiscal Plan Working Group earlier this summer helped move the needle a little toward compromise. But no working group decides for the whole legislature, and many are not in a compromising mood. The Third Special Session made it clear the big chunks of a fiscal plan will take a game-changer to get them across the finish line.
What would change the game? Gov. Dunleavy introducing a revenue bill would've been the kind of big move that shifts mindsets. So would ardent budget cutters proposing reductions that impact their own districts. Or anti-tax legislators moving forward a revenue bill. I myself let a proposed spending limit out of committee (after some moderating improvements) to try and contribute some momentum.
But during the Third Special Session the governor talked only about big PFD checks. Anti-tax legislators didn't move any revenue bills along. And those who want giant cuts in state spending still haven't proposed them. If only one side compromises, nothing's doing.
Against that backdrop, before the Fourth Special Session started I asked the governor if he had a plan to change the game or shift some votes. Clearly, he had neither. Many of us worked the phones and our colleagues to try and salvage something, but there's a Japanese saying: you can't catch wind in a net.
So what comes next? This doesn't get easier during the regular session that starts in January. This Fourth Special Session built a lot of acrimony we're going to have to get past. And oil prices are higher. That can shrink the deficit and allow a PFD next fall without massive cuts or new revenues. It's nice. But I've lived in Alaska my entire life, and I've never seen high oil prices stick around long. A one-year sprinkling of cash from the oil price fairy doesn't leave Alaska in a stable spot for the long term.
And election years don’t exactly stiffen peoples’ spines for the tough decisions. We’ll have our work cut out for us.
