Council on Foreign Relations
Daily News Brief
October 27, 2021
Top of the Agenda
New UN Report Finds World on Track for 2.7°C of Warming
A report from the UN Environment Program found that countries’ updated climate pledges put the world on track for a temperature rise of 2.7°C by the end of the century, far above the Paris Agreement’s target of limiting warming to 1.5°C. UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres said the gap amounted to a failure of leadership (UN News) and called for governments to make more ambitious pledges ahead of the latest round of UN climate talks, the twenty-sixth Conference of the Parties (COP26), that begin this weekend.
 
The report noted that although forty-nine countries plus the European Union (EU) have set net-zero emissions targets, plans for reaching them remain vague, and only eleven targets are enshrined in law. In addition, cutting methane emissions and setting clear rules for carbon markets, which will be discussed (Politico) at COP26, could help reduce warming.
Analysis
“Economic studies indicate that there are three steps countries can take to bridge the [emissions] gap: price carbon emissions, promote low-carbon technologies, and improve the architecture of international climate accords,” Yale University’s William Nordhaus writes for Foreign Affairs.
 
“In the United States, the [Joe] Biden administration is still struggling to clarify exactly how it will meet its pledge, since major climate legislation has not been approved by Congress,” the New York Times’ Brad Plumer writes.
 
This In Brief lays out what to expect at COP26.

Pacific Rim
U.S., Chinese Climate Envoys to Meet Ahead of COP26
John Kerry traveled to London, where he will meet (State Dept.) with Xie Zhenhua ahead of COP26. Xie will attend (Australian) the climate conference on behalf of Chinese President Xi Jinping.
 
Australia: Canberra said it will offer Southeast Asian countries $93 million in financial aid (Reuters) and an additional ten million COVID-19 vaccine doses.

South and Central Asia
Indian Supreme Court Appoints Panel to Investigate Use of Spyware
The panel will investigate (Indian Express) whether the government improperly used the Pegasus spyware to surveil Indian citizens. 
 
Afghanistan: The U.S. Department of Defense’s top policy official told a Senate panel (CNN) that the Islamic State in Khorasan could be capable of attacking the United States in six to twelve months, while al-Qaeda could have that ability in a year or two.
 
For Foreign Affairs, Cole Bunzel looks at the jihadi power struggle in the Taliban’s Afghanistan.

Middle East and North Africa
Iranian Authorities Blame Cyberattack for Disruption to Fuel Supplies
Iran’s national security council said a cyberattack hit the computer system (AFP) responsible for distributing oil throughout the country. The attack is under investigation.
 
Turkey: Parliament extended the authorization (Anadolu) for troop deployments in Iraq and Syria for two years.
This Day in History: October 27, 2002
Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva is elected president of Brazil. He is the first elected leftist leader of the country after its redemocratization in the late 1980s and holds office until 2010.

Sub-Saharan Africa
Sudanese Prime Minister Allowed to Return Home
The office of deposed Prime Minister Abdalla Hamdok said he was allowed to return home yesterday (France 24). The military detained him when it seized power on Monday.
 
For the Africa in Transition blog, CFR’s Michelle Gavin discusses the coup.
 
CAR/DRC: The United Nations has restarted (VOA) a voluntary repatriation process for refugees from the Central African Republic (CAR) to return from the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) after the program was paused nearly a year ago.

Europe
Brussels Launches Antitrust Probe of Gas Suppliers as Energy Prices Surge
The EU’s competition police have begun investigating (Politico) whether high energy prices can be linked to illegal activity by the bloc’s gas suppliers. The chief suspect is Russia’s Gazprom, though investigators did not mention it by name.
 
Brussels/Iran: EU envoy Enrique Mora will meet (RFE/RL) with Iranian nuclear negotiator Ali Bagheri Kani in Brussels today in hopes of reviving stalled nuclear talks.

Americas
Brazilian Senators Approve Recommendations of Charges in Pandemic Probe
A Senate committee that investigated government mishandling of the response to COVID-19 voted to approve a report (AP) calling for criminal charges against President Jair Bolsonaro and dozens of other people.
 
Paraguay: The landlocked country is experiencing its most severe drought (WSJ) since the 1940s, which is harming its shipping and agriculture industries, officials said.
 
This Backgrounder examines how water stress is threatening the health and development of communities worldwide.

United States
Senate Democrats Propose Tax on Billionaires
The proposal aims to fund (Bloomberg) the Biden administration’s flagship social spending package, which has been whittled down in recent weeks as some Democrats have not given it their full support.
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