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Daily News Brief
October 28, 2019
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Top of the Agenda
World Leaders Stress Ongoing Fight After Baghdadi’s Death
World leaders warned that the self-proclaimed Islamic State remains a significant threat following the death of its leader, Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, during a U.S. commando raid (NYT) in Syria announced yesterday by President Donald J. Trump.

U.S. forces targeted Baghdadi, who died by detonating a suicide vest, based on information gained over five months in partnership with Syrian Kurdish forces. Leaders including French President Emmanuel Macron, British Prime Minister Boris Johnson, and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu acknowledged the importance of Baghdadi’s death, but also underscored the work ahead (France 24) to defeat his followers. U.S. Defense Secretary Mark Esper said that around five hundred U.S. troops will remain in Syria (NYT) with the aim of denying the Islamic State access to oil revenue.
Analysis
While the raid achieved its goal, it did little to resolve the question of whether Mr. Trump’s instinct for disengagement will create room for new strains of violent radicalism that he and his successors will be forced to clean up,” David E. Sanger writes for the New York Times.

“Will Baghdadi’s death facilitate the reunification of al-Qaeda with ISIS? Qaeda has been consolidating its position in Syria via its local stalking horse, Hurras al-Din. With no clear ISIS heir apparent, a voluntary merger with Qaeda or absorption of remaining ISIS is plausible,” tweets CFR’s Bruce Hoffman. 

“The irony of the successful operation against al-Baghdadi is that it could not have happened without US forces on the ground that have been pulled out, help from Syrian Kurds who have been betrayed, and support of US intelligence community that has so often been disparaged,” tweets CFR President Richard N. Haass.

 

Pacific Rim
Hong Kong’s Economy Could Contract in 2019
The territory’s finance chief warned that Hong Kong’s economic growth could be negative (SCMP) this year after a technical recession in the second and third quarters. The official urged an end to violence in Hong Kong and appealed for public unity. 

Indonesia: President Joko Widodo inaugurated a $128 million bridge (Jakarta Post) during a three-day trip to the provinces of Papua and West Papua. The bridge is part of a development push in Papua (Reuters), where unrest has swelled recently over racial tensions.

 

South and Central Asia
Afghan Government Reportedly Prepares Peace Plan
The government of President Ashraf Ghani has drafted a seven-point plan for the withdrawal of U.S. forces from Afghanistan and negotiations with the Taliban, according to a report from the Afghan network TOLOnews.

Pakistan: Islamabad denied a request (PTI) by Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi to use the country’s airspace for an upcoming trip to Saudi Arabia. Pakistan’s foreign minister cited rights violations by India in the disputed Kashmir region.

 

Middle East and North Africa
More Than Sixty Dead in Iraq Security Crackdown
Sixty-three people died over the weekend in a crackdown by security forces against ongoing anti-government protests (Al Jazeera), according to the semi-official Iraq High Commission for Human Rights.

 

Sub-Saharan Africa
Scores Killed in Ethiopia Protests
At least sixty-seven people have died and another two hundred people have been injured in clashes during protests (CNN) in support of media mogul Jawar Mohammed, who has recently been critical of Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s government.

This CFR Backgrounder looks at the challenges facing East Africa’s emerging giant.

Mozambique: Incumbent Filipe Nyusi won this month’s presidential election with 73 percent of the vote (Reuters), election officials announced. Opposition candidate Ossufo Momade, leader of the former rebel group RENAMO, rejected the result.

 

Europe
EU Leaders Agree to Brexit Extension
Leaders from the European Union agreed to a flexible Brexit extension (Guardian) until January 31, European Council President Donald Tusk said. Under the deal, Britain could also leave the bloc before that date.

On The President’s Inbox podcast, CFR’s Sebastian Mallaby discusses the details of the new draft Brexit deal

Vatican City: Catholic leaders from the Amazon region concluded a three-week meeting by issuing proposals (AP) to allow married men and women to serve as priests and deacons in order to address a clergy shortage. Pope Francis said he will review the proposals.

 

Americas
Left-Wing Ticket Wins Argentine Election
Center-left candidate Alberto Fernandez, who ran on a ticket with former President Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner, won Sunday’s presidential election (Bloomberg) with around 48 percent of the vote, compared to 40 percent for center-right incumbent Mauricio Macri.

In Foreign Affairs, Bruno Binetti discusses the economic challenges ahead for Argentina’s next president.

Uruguay: Left-wing candidate Daniel Martinez and centrist Luis Lacalle Pou appeared headed for a runoff (AP) after neither candidate secured enough votes in Sunday’s presidential election.

 

United States
Trump Reportedly Moves to End Open Skies Treaty
According to a Wall Street Journal report, President Trump signed a document indicating his intent to pull out of the 1992 Treaty on Open Skies, which aims to reduce the risk of war between Russia and Western countries by allowing reconnaissance flights over their territories.
 
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