Council on Foreign Relations
Daily News Brief
October 19, 2021
Top of the Agenda
Russia Suspends Diplomatic Ties With NATO
Russia’s foreign minister, Sergei Lavrov, announced that the country is suspending diplomatic ties (NYT) with the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) after NATO expelled eight Russian diplomats from its headquarters in Brussels. NATO officials said the diplomats were undeclared intelligence officers.
 
The move comes as tensions rise between Russia and the bloc, with each blaming the other for “aggression” (AP) in official statements. Russia is also forcing NATO’s offices in Moscow to close. Lavrov said that for urgent matters, NATO can liaise with the Russian ambassador (Moscow Times) in Belgium.
Analysis
“The decision will end a post-Cold War experiment, never very successful, in building trust between Russia and the Western alliance,” the New York Times’ Andrew E. Kramer writes. 

“Today, the Russian military is at its highest level of readiness, mobility, and technical capability in decades. NATO remains superior on paper, but much is contingent in war, and NATO’s apparent superiority does not guarantee victory or the ability to deter Russia across the range of possible conflicts,” the Center for a New American Security’s Michael Kofman and Andrea Kendall-Taylor write for Foreign Affairs.  

Pacific Rim
North Korea Reportedly Fires Submarine-Launched Ballistic Missile
U.S. and South Korean intelligence officials are still analyzing the details (Yonhap) of the launch, which could be North Korea’s first test of such a missile in two years. However, South Korea’s military believes Pyongyang used a barge, not a submarine, in previous tests.
 
This Backgrounder explores North Korea’s military capabilities.
 
China: U.S. disarmament ambassador Robert Wood said Washington is “very concerned” (Guardian) by a Financial Times report that China tested a nuclear-capable hypersonic missile. China called the report inaccurate.

South and Central Asia
Hundreds Arrested in Bangladesh Over Anti-Hindu Violence
Authorities said 450 people were arrested (Dhaka Tribune) in the past five days in connection with attacks on Hindu homes, businesses, and places of worship and for spreading rumors on social media.
 
Afghanistan: Zalmay Khalilzad, who served as the top U.S. envoy to Afghanistan, resigned (TOLOnews).

Middle East and North Africa
Iraq Says It Captured Alleged Mastermind of Deadly 2016 Attack
Iraq’s prime minister said authorities captured Ghazwan al-Zawbaee (BBC), a militant belonging to the self-proclaimed Islamic State who is believed to have been the primary culprit of an attack that killed some three hundred people at a shopping center in 2016.
 
Lebanon: The legislature voted to hold elections (Reuters) on March 27, giving Prime Minister Najib Mikati only a few months to secure a recovery package from the International Monetary Fund. The World Bank has called Lebanon’s financial crisis one of the worst in modern history.
This Day in History: October 19, 1933
Foreign Minister Konstantin Freiherr von Neurath announces Germany’s withdrawal from the League of Nations, paving the way for Germany’s subsequent military buildup and the start of World War II.

Sub-Saharan Africa
Ethiopian Government Carries Out Air Strikes in Tigray
The Ethiopian government said it launched air strikes (BBC) for the first time in its conflict with rebels in Tigray, striking the region’s capital, Mekelle.
 
Africa: Ahead of the UN climate conference in November, the head of the African Group of Negotiators on Climate Change called for a new system (Reuters) to track funding from wealthy nations that have pledged to help poorer countries address climate change. Donations have fallen short of a $100 billion annual target.
 
CFR’s Alice C. Hill, Katharine Mach, and Arun Majumdar discuss the climate crisis at this virtual meeting.

Europe
Talks Begin on German ‘Traffic Light Coalition’
The Free Democratic Party agreed to enter into coalition talks (FT) with the Social Democratic Party of Germany and the Greens. The combination of the groups is known as a “traffic light” due to the parties’ colors. The coalition excludes the alliance of Chancellor Angela Merkel.
 
On The President’s Inbox podcast, CFR’s James M. Lindsay and Constanze Stelzenmuller discuss the end of the Merkel era.

Americas
Blinken Visits Ecuador Amid State of Emergency
U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken will discuss security, defense, and trade during an official visit to Ecuador (AFP) that begins today. Yesterday, Ecuadorian President Guillermo Lasso declared a national state of emergency due to gang violence.
 
Chile: Thousands of people demonstrated in major cities (Bloomberg) to mark the anniversary of a 2019 social uprising that eventually led to an agreement to rewrite the country’s constitution.

United States
House Committee Expected to Open Contempt Proceedings Against Bannon
The House of Representatives’ committee investigating the January 6 Capitol riots is expected to vote to begin contempt proceedings (CNN) against Steve Bannon, an ally of former President Donald Trump, for failing to comply with a subpoena. The last time such proceedings were opened was during the Ronald Reagan administration.
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