In new Data for Progress polling, we find that U.S. Senator from Arizona Kyrsten Sinema is poised to lose her primary in 2024. Sinema, who famously sauntered down the Senate floor to thumbs down a minimum wage increase, is unpopular with Arizona voters — who, incidentally, voted for a 2016 measure to increase the minimum wage in larger numbers than they voted for Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump. Life comes at you fast. 

A quick breakdown of our polling: We found that her unfavorability among Democratic primary voters is underwater across every demographic and that her overall approval is -45 points, trailing well behind President Joe Biden and other Arizona senator Mark Kelly.

In 1-on-1 polling against potential primary challengers, the challengers outperformed Sinema regardless of their name recognition. It should be noted that we find progressive Rep. Ruben Gallego to be the best positioned to beat her. Sinema does have a chance of winning if multiple progressives jump into the race and split the vote, but even then, she trails behind Rep. Gallego by about four points.

Right now, Sinema is holding up the Build Back Better reconciliation bill, which our previous polling found is widely popular with Arizona voters across party lines. In particular, the bill mobilizes Democrats and Independents - the base that Sinema would want to court in 2024. If she tanks the bill, it’s easy to imagine a world where Arizona primary voters send her and her wigs packing in retaliation. 

Read the full memo here. 

Here are some other highlights from DFP over the past week:

Voters overwhelmingly support canceling student loan debt

Currently, more than 4 million Americans have been paying off their student loans for more than two decades, and we have a new poll out that shows even Republicans want to do something about it. By a +12-point margin, we find a majority of Republicans want to cancel student debt for borrowers who have been paying loans for more than 20 years.

We also find clear majority support for canceling student debt for healthcare and essential workers, people with total and permanent disabilities, and public service workers who have made payments for more than 10 years.

Read the full poll here.


Voters support expanding and modernizing our immigration policy

Every year, thousands of immigrants who have been approved for green cards don’t end up receiving them for one reason: administrative errors. We can fix this problem by “recapturing” unused green cards so that everyone who’s been approved can live and work in the U.S. It’s an obvious fix, and our new poll finds voters — even 40 percent of Republicans — realize it.

Our polling also finds that a bipartisan majority of voters — including a +17-point margin of Republicans — want to create a simpler pathway to citizenship for high-skilled immigrants. 

Read the full poll analysis and crosstabs here.
 

DFP In The News 

Huffpost: Progressive Group’s Poll Suggests Deep Primary Trouble For Kyrsten Sinema

Vox: Americans are ready to tax the rich

The Hill: Sinema trails potential primary challengers in progressive poll

Salon: New poll shows dismal chances for Kyrsten Sinema in next primary: 'A clear warning sign'

The Washington Post: Opinion: Two new polls should really light a fire under Democrats

The Hill: The Memo: Troubles pile up for Biden

NBC: Democrats stake 2022 hopes on child cash benefits. There's just one problem.

Politico: Dems thought giving voters cash was the key to success. So what occurred?

The Guardian: Who is Kyrsten Sinema? Friends and foes ponder an Arizona Senate enigma

The American Independent: Ron Johnson says top 1% pay 'fair share' in taxes

Newsweek: Kyrsten Sinema Trails Potential Primary Challengers Amid Opposition to Biden's Social Bill

Home Health Care News: Senator Bob Casey: Nation Is ‘Long Overdue for an Investment in Caregiving’

The Nation: Biden Needs to Do More Than Sound the Alarm on Climate

Salon: Kyrsten Sinema ditches Senate negotiations for fundraising trip to Europe

Truthout: Poll: Kyrsten Sinema Would Lose to Progressive Challengers If Primary Were Now

Truthout: Sinema Takes Off to Europe for Fundraising While Obstructing Democratic Agenda


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