A Newsletter Covering the U.N. Climate Summit
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The European Union and Britain Boost Biden En Route to Glasgow

The president claims America is back in the climate fight, but
legislation is the missing ingredient.

 

British Prime Minister Boris Johnson speaks during the opening session
of the virtual global Leaders Summit on Climate, April 22, 2021. (Press
Association via AP Images)

 

By Gabrielle Gurley

Since the Biden administration took office, its commitments, pledges,
and regulatory achievements have bought time and a modicum of respect
for a fading superpower. They were greeted with sighs of relief after
the four years of sheer insanity unleashed by the former climate
denier-in-chief, Donald Trump.

Since January, the United States has pledged to reduce its emissions by
50 percent from 2005 levels by 2030, co-crafted an initiative to reduce
global methane emissions by 30 percent by 2030, is phasing out
hydrofluorocarbons, and has devised new transportation emissions
standards, in tandem with a decisive push toward zero-emission vehicles.
Biden also pledged $11 billion in the next two years to help developing
nations cut emissions to meet their own climate targets and to assist
the places at greatest risk for climate impacts-provided he can get
Congress on board. (Developing nations' earlier attempts
to come up with
financial goals were not fully realized either.) The world welcomed
these measures as strong evidence that the U.S. has recommitted itself
to international leadership.

But with Congress holding up the legislative end of the bargain until
the eve of COP26 (the United Nations' Climate Change Conference, which
will run from October 31 through November 12 in Glasgow), none of these
moves will mean a thing until it's clear what kind of leverage the
president actually has. Biden's "America is back" declarations won't
lift the veil of doubt that shrouds his country's re-emergence on the
global climate stage unless he can fly in with a sealed congressional
deal. What matters are "credible pledges of ambition, backed by a solid
reporting scheme," says Joseph Majkut, director of the Energy Security
and Climate Change Program at the Center for Strategic and International
Studies (CSIS). "Other countries want to see how that's going to
happen."

****That means they need to see the climate provisions in the Build Back
Better bill now becalmed in Congress (or at least most of them) actually
enacted.

Until then, Britain and the European Union are determined to push and
prod the U.S. back into relevance. Despite its Brexit miscalculation,
the COVID-19 pandemic, and a fuel crisis, Britain is determined to be a
major player in Glasgow-courtesy of its special relationship with the
United States. According to Mark Shanahan, an associate professor of
politics at Britain's University of Reading, Prime Minister Boris
Johnson has aspirations of honest broker-dom and sees himself as the
instrument prodding the U.S. to make good on its "America is back"
positioning on climate change. He's also keen on securing pledges from
developed nations to phase out coal by 2030 and to serve as a conduit
between the G20 and the emerging nations to fashion a workable consensus
on climate goals.

Read all our climate coverage here

Johnson may aspire to steer an American return to greatness, but his
standing is as fraught on the international stage as it is at home.
"There's a sense here that he's slightly disingenuous," says
Shanahan. "One of his Cabinet secretaries was supportive of a plan for a
new U.K. coal mine recently, while the fanfares around COP26 are seen by
many who don't support the [Johnson] government as a distraction from
the significant challenges this populist government faces going into a
potential 'winter of discontent' at home."

While Biden and Johnson may be aligned on issues like persuading
developed countries to make good on climate financing pledges for
developing nations, Shanahan sees Johnson actually fixated on a
U.S.-U.K. free-trade deal, a factor that complicates his position at
COP26. Having opted out of the European Union, Johnson needs to secure a
compensatory trading relationship with the U.K.'s old "special
relationship" Anglophone buddy.

"So while, to the outside world, COP26 is a unity of nations saving the
planet, Boris Johnson's real goal is saving his political skin by
securing his coveted U.S. trade deal," Shanahan says. "He may well have
to sell his soul to Biden in support of POTUS's climate goals to
achieve that. If that's the case, the U.S. president will need to get
any agreement signed in blood in triplicate with as many witnesses as
possible, since Johnson's reputation for keeping his word is
diminishing by the day."

For their part, however, European Union leaders, who are likely pleased
to be rid of the bombastic and mercurial Johnson, may end up sidelining
him completely. Among the developed nations, the EU is probably the best
positioned to serve as an example of what climate action looks like, one
that the U.S. would do well to emulate. Unlike the U.S., the EU comes
into COP26 with a set of agreed-upon EU-wide goals: a 55 percent
reduction in greenhouse gas emissions by 2030, twinned to a longer-term
vision of a climate-neutral EU by 2050. The EU devised its own European
Green Deal two
years ago. The 27 members have locked horns on issues like coming up
with specific time frames

for increasing climate goals, but compared to America's legislative
impasse, the Europeans excel at the unappreciated art of compromise.

The administration joined forces with the EU prior to Glasgow,
announcing a Global Methane Pledge that would reduce methane emissions
by 30 percent by 2030. Methane is arguably is a greater short-term

global-warming threat than carbon dioxide, having already contributed to
half a degree

of warming. Twenty-four countries have agreed to the initiative, which
will be formally outlined at the climate conference. The presumptive
signatories comprise nearly half
of the 20 top methane-emitting countries.

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Surveying the two great powers, the EU wants to see the U.S. increase
and follow through on climate financial aid, and China commit to
stronger emissions goals. Both the U.S. and the EU agree that China
should come to the table with a stronger program of targets for reducing
emissions. (For more on the U.S.-China climate conundrum, see my
colleague Lee Harris's analysis
.)
But the EU wants to stay out of America's broader efforts to contain
China and prefers to concentrate on areas of climate agreement,
especially given the uncertainties around America's climate stance and
China relations posed by the 2022 midterm and the 2024 presidential
elections.

A Pew Research Center September poll on climate

of nearly 20,000 citizens in 17 developed countries in Europe, North
America, and the Asia-Pacific found that both the EU and the United
Nations are viewed more favorably on climate issues than the U.S. and
China by majorities of the respondents. Nevertheless, 52 percent of
respondents were "not too/not at all" confident that multilateral
efforts would succeed in reducing the effects of climate change.

Biden's assertiveness had only a limited impact on international
opinion. A majority had low opinions of U.S. actions; 61 percent said
that America is doing a "bad job" on climate. (Singapore was the sole
country with a slightly positive view of U.S. policies.) Only China had
a worse reputation: 75 percent of respondents rated China's climate
responses as bad; 45 percent as "very bad."

As the Pew poll suggests, America likely can't get back into the good
graces of the world community until the president delivers demonstrable
proofs that the U.S. intends to live up to any commitments made in
Glasgow. No amount of presidential good cheer can erase the considerable
international skepticism that Biden can deliver a consistent, lasting
response to a global crisis amid the political fires burning hot at
home.

The October 31 vote on the infrastructure and reconciliation bills in
Congress draws a bright line under the president's entire Glasgow
portfolio. He can show up bearing the fruits of legislative victory or
the supreme embarrassment of being cut off at the knees by reactionary
forces on the opening of a global conference with life on the planet
hanging in the balance. "The best thing that could be done to allay
fears that the U.S. is an unreliable partner or that changing
administrations will dramatically alter our approach to international
climate negotiations is legislation," says Majkut of CSIS.

Gabrielle Gurley is deputy editor at The American Prospect.

 

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