View this email in your browser

**OCTOBER 6, 2021**

Kuttner on TAP

Are Progressives About to Get Rolled Again?

It's now clear that the Biden administration, House and Senate
progressives, and the handful of conservative Democratic spoilers are
vectoring in on a deal. Build Back Better will be boiled down to
something in the $2 to $2.5 trillion range.

Progressives can comfort themselves that once the infighting is behind
us, and we can get past the echo-chamber stories of a failed presidency,
Biden can get on with the business of governing. His approval ratings
can go back up, and we can come back for more money in the FY2023 budget
reconciliation next fall.

But hold on, the devil is in the fine print.

For starters, the original White House plan also included over a
trillion dollars in refundable tax credits, notably an extension of the
Child Tax Credit, as well as expanded credits for child care and a more
generous EITC. If these tax expenditures are included in a $2 trillion
total, then the entire spending part of the package is reduced to not
much more than the bipartisan infrastructure bill, which has only about
$600 billion in genuine new public investment.

And don't forget, these are ten-year totals. Two hundred billion a
year is pretty puny, given the kinds of transformations the economy
needs. The $60 billion a year in the bipartisan bill is business as
usual.

One ray of hope is in the dynamic economic gains produced by these
outlays. The White House has argued, correctly in my view, that many if
not most of these social and economic investments will enhance
productivity and GDP, thus reducing their net budgetary impact. And that
could produce a consensus on a larger bottom line. Joe Manchin has said
he is sympathetic to this kind of budgeting.

Seemingly, Manchin is sympathetic to higher taxes on rich people, while
his fellow spoiler, Kyrsten Sinema, is not. Here again, using public
investments to increase economic output allows offsets to the total
budgetary impact, and Sinema could be sympathetic to that. Recognizing
these gains is as close as economics gets to the proverbial free lunch.

The package would be even worse without the insistence of House
progressives that they will compromise only so much. The Child Tax
Credit and the other tax subsidies for working families should not be
counted as part of the spending. This is no time for further retreat.

~ ROBERT KUTTNER

Follow Robert Kuttner on Twitter

Robert Kuttner's latest book is
The Stakes: 2020 and the Survival of American Democracy
.

[link removed]

U.S. Demands Something for Nothing at Glasgow

The top constraint on global climate talks is still parochial American
politics. BY LEE HARRIS

The End of Forced Arbitration?

Persistent advocates and new strategies have led some companies to
relent on blocking access to courts. But there's a long way to go.
BY SUSAN ANTILLA

The Whole Judiciary Branch Has a Credibility Crisis

The Supreme Court is back in session but hasn't brought legitimacy
with it. BY ALEXANDER SAMMON

Newsom Vetoes Union Vote-by-Mail Bill for Farmworkers

Assembly Bill 616 would have made it easier for California farmworkers
to vote to unionize by allowing them to fill out and mail ballots as
absentees. BY DAVID BACON

To receive this newsletter directly in your inbox, click here to
subscribe. 

 

[link removed]

 

[link removed]

 

[link removed]

 

[link removed]

 

[link removed]

YOUR TAX DEDUCTIBLE DONATION SUPPORTS INDEPENDENT JOURNALISM

The American Prospect
IDEAS, POLITICS & POWER
The American Prospect, Inc.
1225 I Street NW, Suite 600
Washington, DC xxxxxx
United States
Copyright (C) 2021 The American Prospect. All rights reserved.

To opt out of American Prospect membership messaging, click here
.

To manage your newsletter preferences, click here
.

To unsubscribe from all American Prospect emails, including newsletters,
click here .
_________________

Sent to [email protected]

Unsubscribe:
[link removed]

The American Prospect, Inc., 1225 I Street NW, Suite 600, Washington, DC xxxxxx, United States