SEPTEMBER 22, 2021
Kuttner on TAP
Translating Fed Chair Powell’s Coded Messages to Biden
Fed Chairman Jay Powell, speaking at a press conference today following the release of a policy statement by the Fed’s Open Market Committee, aimed his remarks squarely if slyly at President Biden. Powell is angling to keep his job, a decision Biden is expected to make very soon.

The Open Market Committee, made up of governors of the Fed and a rotating cast of regional Fed bank presidents, seeks to target both maximum employment and price stability. In the current context of a still-depressed economy, the Fed has two basic tools—interest rates and large purchases of bonds, a tactic that the central bank only uses in emergencies.

The Fed has been purchasing $120 billion of bonds per month, and has kept short-term interest rates close to zero. The Open Market Committee statement suggests that the Fed will begin reducing its bond purchases in October or November, and could raise interest rates beginning in late 2022.

Powell, however, took pains to locate himself on the dovish end of the consensus, saying that he was not much concerned about inflation which mainly results from temporary supply bottlenecks; and that labor markets are not as tight as they might look, given the disruptions of the pandemic. Message to Biden: Keep me as chairman, and I will give priority to full employment and not get spooked by inflation.

Asked about the current vice chair for supervision, Randy Quarles, whose term in that post expires next month, Powell responded that he’d be fine with a new appointee who might have a different regulatory philosophy than the very anti-regulation Quarles. Message to Biden: Go ahead and appoint a liberal to replace Quarles, just keep me.

In all of this choreography and signaling, two realities get lost. First, monetary policy is only one of the Fed’s jobs. The other is regulatory policy.

On monetary policy, Powell has been fine—as would any Fed chair in the current circumstances. On regulatory policy, Powell has been as bad as Quarles.

Biden has a chance to fix that, not by appointing a new vice chair for supervision but by replacing Powell. Will Biden do that—or will Powell’s charm offensive win Biden over?

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