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CHEAT SHEET TO THIS WILD MOMENT ON CAPITOL HILL
By Lisa Desjardins, @LisaDNews ([link removed])
Correspondent

Greetings from the big-stakes U.S. Capitol, where some of the toughest issues of the past year are running wild in a tricky legislative rodeo.

We thought it might be useful to construct a concise cheat sheet to what is happening.

Six major issues are coming to a head:
* Government funding, which is now set to run out Sept. 30.
* Disaster relief. After recent storms, floods and fires, states and cities are desperate for funding help.
* Afghanistan refugees and the U.S. withdrawal. The Biden administration is sheltering and processing tens of thousands of Afghan refugees across the country and still absorbing some costs of the withdrawal. They hope for billions in funding to support that.
* Debt ceiling. The government is expected to hit the nation’s self-imposed debt limit in early to mid-October. The U.S. needs to take on debt daily in order to keep operating (and pay interest on previous debt).
* The Biden/reconciliation bill. Sometimes called “Big Back Better,” this is the sweeping Democratic bill which would significantly shift how the U.S. addresses child care, higher education, health care for seniors and climate.
* Infrastructure. This is the large $1 trillion bipartisan infrastructure plan passed by the U.S. Senate last month. The House technically is due to vote on this bill by Sept. 27.

And these are only the issues heading into the final round of action. Other major issues -- police reform and voting rights especially -- are trying to find shape.

Those other six issues are key, though, because they either require or are poised for imminent action. And importantly: all six are connected to each other.

Here’s an attempt at keeping this simple -- Which bills are hard or easy to pass?
* Four bills are relatively popular and theoretically easy to pass:
+ The infrastructure bill. It is bipartisan, helps nearly every district in the country and already passed the Senate.
+ Funding government. No one wants a shutdown. This is must-pass legislation.
+ Disaster aid. This is bipartisan.
+ Afghan refugee funding. This is bipartisan.
* Two bills are much harder to pass:
+ The debt ceiling increase, which Senate Republicans have vowed to oppose. This is must-pass legislation but Republicans want Democrats to pass it alone.
+ The Biden/reconciliation bill, which has a lower vote requirement than all of the other bills in the Senate (50 votes instead of 60), still will require every Democrat in the Senate (50) and nearly every Democrat in the House. It is not there yet, in either chamber.

Here is why these things are woven together in such a complicated manner. Democrats are tying the harder-to-pass bills to the popular, and even must-pass, bills. They are using one group of measures as leverage to push through another.

This raises the already-high stakes. And chews up time as the clock ticks.

Here are the specifics of Democrats’ opening plans:
* The gov-funding-debt-disaster-Afghan plan. Democrats have tied the debt ceiling increase to the government funding bill. And they’ve added disaster relief and Afghan refugee funding to it as well. This is a dare to Senate Republicans: Oppose the debt ceiling and risk not only that financial calamity but also a government shutdown. And by the way, they say, you will also block disaster aid and help for Afghan refugees.
* The infrastructure and Biden/reconciliation coupling. The funding and debt bills are about division between the parties, but the infrastructure and reconciliation pairing is about Democrats’ internal split. Moderates are not yet fully on board with any single version of the reconciliation bill, which progressives dearly want. That is why progressives are threatening to kill or block the infrastructure bill (which moderates love) until reconciliation moves out of the Senate.

What will happen?

The opening sequence on government funding and the debt seems clear.
* House Democrats pass a combination funding and debt ceiling bill.
* Within days, Senate Republicans block it.
* This will leave about a week to find a solution, or the government will shut down.

So then how will Congress avoid a shutdown? Or a debt ceiling crash?

Right now, it’s not clear, though the paths for avoiding a shutdown seem more certain. Democrats have a few options, including holding a vote just on funding, which would separate out the debt ceiling issue.

From there, Democrats will have to decide whether to add the debt ceiling increase to the Biden/reconciliation plan. Again, that only needs 50 votes. Another option: vote on the debt ceiling by itself, which requires 60 votes. That would dare Republicans to block a debt ceiling bill, and risk uncharted financial consequences.

Democrats have not made that decision yet.

What about the infrastructure bill?

Right now it looks like the $1 trillion infrastructure bill will come up for a vote on the House floor Monday. House Majority Leader Steny Hoyer vouched for this to reporters today.

But it is not clear if it will pass or fail at that point.

Progressive Democrats have threatened to vote against the infrastructure bill, not because they oppose its content, but because they want it to be held in the House until the Biden/reconciliation bill starts to move. They believe that this will pressure moderates in the Senate to finish reconciliation.

It is another game of chicken. Will progressives blink? Or will they actually vote down the infrastructure bill? What about Republicans? Could enough of them vote yes to pass it and overcome reluctant progressives? If not, will Democrats also add the infrastructure bill to the reconciliation bill, to appease progressives and cement the two bills together?

And will any Biden/reconciliation bill emerge that exactly the right combination of Senate and House Democrats can back?

There are dozens of permutations here on six big issues that Democrats hope to send to the president within weeks. Stay closely tuned.

FOUR QUESTIONS ABOUT THE DIVIDE IN AMERICA
By Lisa Desjardins, @LisaDNews ([link removed])
Correspondent

Packed around a thin stage, the few hundred protesters at Saturday’s “Justice for J6” (January 6) rally on Capitol Hill made for a relatively small crowd. The event itself was not major news, as it turned out. But if you spoke to the people who chose to come, there was something to hear: insight into the still overwhelming divide in America. We thought it worth a sampling of some questions and words from the non-lawmaker, but strong-feeling people who came.

Are you worried about violence at this rally (and in general)?

Dave Weber, Navy veteran from Indiana: “I am concerned. I know that there's a lot of hate in people's hearts right now. And hate is, you know, capable of doing a lot of, I would say maybe, insane or unpredictable things. And I hope to see that none of that happens. And that's why I'm here to spread the message of love today.”

How do you see or feel the divide in America?

Dave Morgan, Reston, Virginia: “I don't know, I don't see it in my neighborhood. I just see it down here. It’s the politicians... fighting, they won't talk anymore, you know.”

When asked if they are comfortable talking with people who disagree with them, Morgan and his wife, Cindy, nodded vigorously and told us of their three daughters, “One’s independent, one’s a far-left socialist, and one’s a Republican.” She laughed, “So there’s a lot of arguing going on.”

How sharply are we divided right now?

John Drechsel, retired roofer who drove from Missouri: “It's really bad. It's really bad. I mean, you know, I don't know if you have any conservatives that won’t talk and get along with liberals and people on the other side. But it's the other side, you know, that just won't have anything to do with us. I mean, like I said, you know, we think we think that they're good people with bad ideas. You know, they think we're bad people with bad ideas. I mean, that's basically it.”

Drechsel acknowledged the Jan. 6 riot involved Trump supporters and believes they should have been arrested for what they did. He does not think those detained for trespassing should have to wait behind bars for their cases to be handled.

What do those on the left say to the idea that they are the ones who will not engage. That they do not like, even hate, the people showing up at a rally like this?

Karen Irwin, New York City resident who has been protesting against the Trump administration and conservative policies since last fall: “If at this stage of the game, with all the information that is out there, you don't realize that white supremacy is a problem in this country, if you will not acknowledge that black lives matter and that all lives will matter once black lives do, but they don't, that if you with all the information available to you, are still gaslighting us with the lies and the stupidity and refusing to acknowledge that we have systemic problems here. I don't want to talk to you. I'm not going to start from square one with every person when they can go online and do some research and find out what's really going on.”
FIVE OVERLOOKED POLITICAL STORIES FROM THE PAST WEEK
By Saher Khan, @SaherMKhan ([link removed])
Politics Producer

Is It Time to Rethink Hyper-Minority Districts? ([link removed]) - Sept. 20. Drawing “voting right act” districts were once an important tool for Black candidates seeking office. Now, lawsuits are seeking to dismantle a system that allows those setting Congressional maps to pack Black voters into a single district, hoping to broaden their influence in predominantly red states. Why it matters: Voting rights advocates point to hyper minority districts as evidence that “the legal framework surrounding race and redistricting remains vague, unsettled, unevenly applied,” and say these changes could help give voters of color more say in a greater number of seats -- which could also significantly affect the 2022 midterms. - The Atlantic

Medicare Expansion Clashes With Health Care for the Poor as Budget Bill Shrinks ([link removed]) -- Sept. 20 Democrats, struggling to put together a framework for a massive social spending bill, have to make tough decisions about what health care provisions to include; some are fighting to expand access to affordable health care to poor communities while others are pushing to make medicare available to older Americans starting at the age of 60 rather than 65. Why it matters: This is Democrats’ and the Biden administration's biggest chance to pass legislation that would make formative change around social service programs -- but what’s left out of negotiations could prevent one of these large subsets of Americans from getting access to needed and affordable health care. - The New York Times

Oil, Gas And Mining Left Marks Across Colorado. The Federal Infrastructure Bill Could Help Clean Up Some Of It ([link removed]) - Sept. 14 Colorado, which has hundreds of abandoned wells and mines that are leaking water and oil into the environment, could find big help in the infrastructure plan before the House, which sets aside $4.5 billion dollars for plugging and remediating orphaned and abandoned oil and gas wells across the country. Why it matters: Managing orphaned wells and mines are a costly burden for state and local officials and taxpayers alike . The money from the infrastructure bill -- passed by the Senate in August and still awaiting House approval -- could help local communities retool these sites, preserve watersheds and keep clean water away from mine wastes and other toxic sites. - Colorado Public Radio

US unveils plan to address ‘silent killer’ extreme heat ([link removed]) - Sept. 20 The administration’s new efforts include rolling out new rules that would protect workers who are exposed to a high heat index by setting up inspections to address heat related hazards and implementing programs to help low-income housing afford air conditioning and other cooling assistance. Why it matters: Extreme heat has killed hundreds of people and hospitalized thousands in the past year. The issue of extreme heat disproportionately affects the poor, elderly and marginalized groups and is another example of the disproportionate impacts of climate change on these communities. - Associated Press

How Joe Biden’s Green Agenda Threatens the Alaskan Wilderness ([link removed]) - Sept. 17. While the Biden administration reversed a Trump administration policy on oil and gas leases in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge, it hasn’t taken measures to halt another project, the Ambler Road, which is critical for the production of minerals and rare earth metals needed for programs involving electric vehicles, solar panels and wind turbines but also disrupts native lands. Why it matters: The predicament has pit the Biden administration’s green energy agenda against its promises to protect ecologically sensitive regions for native communities. - Politico
#POLITICSTRIVIA
By Tess Conciatori, @tkconch ([link removed])
Politics producer

Today, President Joe Biden spoke at the United Nations General Assembly, the gathering of all UN countries to deliberate and determine policy positions on international issues.

Our question: Who was the first U.S. president to address the UNGA?

Send your answers to or tweet using #PoliticsTrivia. The first correct answers will earn a shout-out next week.

Last week, we asked: How many states allow for recall elections of state officials?

The answer: Nineteen states allow for recall elections, including California.

Those states are: Alaska, Arizona, California, Colorado, Georgia, Idaho, Illinois, Kansas, Louisiana, Michigan, Minnesota, Montana, Nevada, New Jersey, North Dakota, Oregon, Rhode Island, Washington and Wisconsin. Despite the large number of states allowing the process, only two gubernatorial recall elections in history have been successful: California in 2003 and North Dakota in 1921.

Congratulations to our winners: Lynn Powell and John Njoroge

Thank you all for reading and watching. We’ll drop into your inbox next week.





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