Plus: Did we say we wouldn’t raise taxes? Yes. But the world has changed...
John,
The “September sitting” used to be a chance to ease back into Westminster gently. Not so these days...
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This week in parliament has been fever pitch from the start. A huge announcement on social care, a boundary review proposal for Wales and even talk of a Government reshuffle. Nothing gets the rumour mill into overdrive quite like the fate of colleagues!
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My conservative instincts always err in favour of low taxes, so raising National Insurance has never been on the wish list - but then neither was Covid. The opportunity to play for yet more time to resolve the long-standing issue of social care has passed, as has the chance of resolving it via yet more borrowing. To deal with the NHS backlog, and to protect people into their old age, we need to act.
For Wales this will mean £700 million of extra funding, 15% more than will be raised from Wales’s own tax base - another Union dividend in fact.
Welsh Government is responsible for designing its own social care solution (using this money) though I sincerely hope it will follow the UK Government’s lead in making sure that those with assets under £20,000 will not pay anything for their care, and that for others there will be a means test and a lifetime cap of £86,000.
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Did we say we wouldn’t raise taxes? Yes.
But I hope readers will understand that the world has changed, and doing nothing - or just adding to the national debt - is a not viable option either.
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Using National Insurance to address the problem was first introduced by Gordon Brown in 2002 and endorsed by Welsh Government. However, on Wednesday Labour voted down the proposal - worth £36 billion to the NHS over three years. That’s in their gift, but they are not coming up with any credible alternatives...
Parliamentary boundaries are a dry subject at the best of times, but this week’s proposal by the Boundaries Commission Wales is a big change. For the first time ever seats will be “equalised” by population size. At the moment constituencies can contain anything from 40,000 to 100,000 voters, resulting in votes being worth more in certain areas than others. To make this work, every Welsh seat other than Ynys Mon (the Island of Anglesey) will change - including ours.
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Subject to a consultation, it looks like most of Pembrokeshire will revert to being a single seat (albeit losing a chunk of North Pembrokeshire to the new 'Ceredigion Preseli' seat) and Carmarthenshire becoming largely one constituency too. South Pembrokeshire remains intact but the proposal will add the remaining element of the North of the county and lose the “Carmarthen West” bit.
Given that we have been talking about this for 11 years there is a long way to go yet...
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And then the reshuffle... or not. The London media are obsessed with speculating about winners and losers, determined to create a feeling of sufficient inevitability about the process so as to influence it. But this is a decision for the PM, and him alone.
One thing is for sure, everyone is suddenly on best behaviour…
Simon
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In other news...
It was great to meet with Samuel Kurtz MS ([link removed][0]=AZXgGiTDyXWuk5D3EwAknG7fe75i3RRWlf0TWvAiyn3IEIc1UQnV5bZFeIwNbEAOFshhYQ05zu2rUqYsPhvL4vY7nvia_XGJRAExh7y5xNHdvX02P1rAGlMKvircHV7BwqINyM50p5QSq54IdeRvCcVmRIN0CwOSFlhAbR2ytNj3HBc-eC3j6-5wfzz03cogxDU&__tn__=kK-R) and Network Rail at the site of the new St Clears train station, where we were updated on recent developments, the layout of the platforms, and the ambitious timescale to completion.
Wonderful to see things underway after so many years of campaigning for the return of this station. A real success story for the area. Looking forward to the opening ceremony in March 2024!
Watch the video ([link removed])
A real thrill to present the staff awards at Ty Cwm in Carmarthen. A wonderful charity supporting disabled people in the UK and around the world to fulfil their potential. I was glad to help give the team the recognition they deserve.
Finally...
I was interviewed for the latest episode of the BBC's 'Walescast' podcast.
Join me in a static caravan on Pendine Sands Holiday Park, where the discussion included:
* The role of Welsh Secretary and what it involves day to day
* The PM's personal battle with COVID-19 last year
* A tale of some unusual visitors to my garden...
CLICK TO LISTEN ([link removed])
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