[ Bolsonaro’s September 7 rally made clear the crisis of
Brazilian democracy isn’t over.] [[link removed]]

BRAZIL ESCAPED A JANUARY 6-STYLE INSURRECTION — FOR NOW  
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Jen Kirby
September 8, 2021
Vox
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_ Bolsonaro’s September 7 rally made clear the crisis of Brazilian
democracy isn’t over. _

Supporters of President of Brazil Jair Bolsonaro wave flags and shout
slogans during a protest in front of the National Congress on
September 7 in Brasilia, Brazil., Andressa Anholete/Getty Images

 

September 7 was Brazil’s Independence Day, and Brazilian
President Jair Bolsonaro
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the occasion to continue his assault on the country’s democratic
institutions.

Bolsonaro had called on his hardcore supporters to rally
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as he battles Congress and the judiciary
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their refusal to go along with his attempts to rewrite electoral
rules
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of the 2022 election and over probes into him and his allies
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could imperil them criminally.

He addressed crowds in Brasilia and São Paulo, using the platform to
attack and threaten the supreme court. “Either the leader of this
branch of power gets this minister under control, or this branch will
suffer what none of us want,” Bolsonaro said
[[link removed]].
He said
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would not follow the decisions of certain justices, including one who
will be in charge of the electoral tribunal during the 2022 elections.

Though an estimated 100,000 Bolsonaro backers gathered in the
capital, Brasilia
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as well as in São Paulo
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according to Brazilian media outlets, the marches did not erupt in
mass violence and chaos
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Ahead of September 7, some feared a repeat of something like
the January 6 insurrection in the United States
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That didn’t happen, despite worries that pro-Bolsonaro
demonstrators might try to storm the Supreme Court
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and protesters clashed
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to push past police barriers largely failed
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But the threat to Brazil’s institutions has not lapsed, not from
Bolsonaro nor from those who unquestionably back him.

That danger comes from Bolsonaro’s political weakness. A large swath
of the public is angry
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his mishandling of the Covid-19 pandemic
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which has killed more than 580,000 people, one of the worst death
rates in the world [[link removed]]. That,
along with Brazil’s still-sluggish economy
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the myriad scandals following Bolsonaro, 
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tanked his popularity
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his approval rating has hit an all-time low of around 23 percent
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Right now he’s losing — badly
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in most recent presidential polls, with some suggesting the incumbent
might even fail to advance to a runoff
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Bolsonaro is seeing his political, and maybe personal, downfall in
real time. Faced with these crises of his own making, he is creating
another one against Brazil’s democracy, in a desperate attempt to
hold power and protect himself.

“We cannot accept a voting system that does not offer any security
in the elections,” Bolsonaro said in São Paulo on Tuesday,
according to Reuters
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“I can’t participate in a farce like the one sponsored by the head
of the electoral court.”

Bolsonaro’s rhetoric isn’t new — from him
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you know, other people
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But just because the playbook isn’t original does not make it less
of a menace.

“They are fine with going with these democratic processes, provided
that they are the winners,” Paulo Barrozo, an associate law
professor at Boston College, said of leaders in the mold of Bolsonaro
and former US President Donald Trump. “The moment that there is any
indication that they’re not going to win, then they are no longer
committed to electoral democracy.”

“The playbook is the same, the motivation is the same,” Barrozo
continued. “And it remains to be seen how much traction [Bolsonaro]
is going to get in the larger Brazil society.”

The September 7 marches were a culmination of Bolsonaro’s attempts
to discredit democracy

Bolsonaro’s campaign to discredit Brazilian democracy began way, way
before September 7. He decried possible voter fraud
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after his first victory in 2018, and his efforts have intensified once
in the presidency and as his electoral prospects have worsened.

For months, Bolsonaro has been trying to sow doubt in the electoral
system and frame the institutions defending those norms as corrupt
actors out to get him. It may sound familiar
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He has repeatedly attacked Brazil’s electronic voting system
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kind of mirror image of Trump’s attacks on vote-by-mail and the like
during the 2020 election
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He is insisting that Brazilian voters must use paper ballots
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the 2022 election, otherwise the results can’t be trusted.
(Brazil’s electronic voting system was created to reduce fraud and
corruption
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manage the logistics of a complex voting system
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and has been in use since the country’s 2002 election.) “I’ll
hand over the presidential sash to whoever wins the election
cleanly,” the far-right Bolsonaro said in July
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“Not with fraud.”

Bolsonaro pushed Congress to change the rules, and on the day Congress
debated the voting proposal, he presided
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a military parade in Brasilia. Still, Congress declined to pass a law
requiring paper ballots; Bolsonaro attacked some of those lawmakers as
having been “blackmailed.”
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Bolsonaro has also directed his ire toward the judiciary, both the
supreme court and what’s known as the Superior Electoral Court,
which oversees and administers the country’s elections.

Some current and former supreme court justices
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criticized
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anti-democratic rhetoric and defended the integrity of Brazil’s
elections. Ultimately the Supreme Court opened an investigation
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Bolsonaro’s efforts to spread voting misinformation and threatening
Brazil’s democracy.

The supreme court has also opened a bunch of other 
[[link removed]]investigations
into Bolsonaro, along with those in his inner circle
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including an ally arrested for allegedly spreading fake news.
Bolsonaro is under investigation for posting a sealed document from
an electoral investigation on social media, in an attempt to prove
voter fraud
[[link removed]].
He’s under investigation for his mishandling of the Covid-19
pandemic, including a possible vaccine kickback scheme
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He and his sons are also implicated in other corruption schemes
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with potential criminal consequences.

All of these pressures are looking harder and harder for Bolsonaro to
shake, and it’s happening against the shadow of Covid-19 and high
unemployment 
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“The political scenario is worsening for him, so he’s trying to
figure out some way to hold on to power to protect himself,” Sean T.
Mitchell, an associate professor of anthropology at Rutgers
University, told me last month.

The September 7 marches fit with Bolsonaro’s attempts to hold power.
The question now is whether the demonstrations were enough to embolden
him to launch even more aggressive attacks on the country’s
institutions.

Brazil’s September 7 rallies were not January 6. But they are still
ominous for Brazilian democracy.

In Brasilia and in São Paulo, Bolsonaro’s supporters draped
themselves in the Brazilian flag, or wore its green and yellow colors
[[link removed]].

It wasn’t record turnout, but it also wasn’t a total flop.
Bolsonaro’s loyalist base showed up, and they are motivated. (There
were also some anti-Bolsonaro counterprotests in cities Tuesday
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though opposition leaders largely urged their supporters to gather on
September 12 instead to avoid potential clashes.) The marches also
showed that they are buying into Bolsonaro’s attacks on Brazil’s
democracy. They carried pro-Bolsonaro 
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a number in English
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blasted the Supreme Court
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called for a military takeover
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Why so many English language banners in Brasília today? Is it the new
official language of Bolsonarismo? pic.twitter.com/JFLSUEN76k
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— Tom Phillips (@tomphillipsin) September 7, 2021
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A Brazilian "Q Shaman" has been spotted at today's march on Congress
by President Jair Bolsonaro's supporters in Brasilia.

Photo by @DanArroyoFoto
[[link removed]] pic.twitter.com/m7xFH78SDc
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— Shayan Sardarizadeh (@Shayan86) September 7, 2021
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It was a show of President Bolsonaro’s die-hard supporters, which
was the goal. Bolsonaro is losing popular support, and the calls for
his impeachment have intensified
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But so far, the public outrage hasn’t fully translated into
political consequences; Bolsonaro still has allies in Congress
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whom he’s managed to keep by making deals, not out of any
ideological loyalty (Bolsonaro actually doesn’t have a political
party right now
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But Bolsonaro doesn’t want those ties fracturing.

“He’s trying to give a demonstration that will somehow overwhelm
his 20 percent approval numbers, show that he has support where it’s
really needed — he can bring people out to the streets,” said Amy
Erica Smith, an associate professor of political science at Iowa State
University. “He’s trying to rally support to himself by showing
that he already has support.”

The September 7 marches were also a test for how far Bolsonaro and his
backers might take their threats against democracy, and how law
enforcement might respond.

Bolsonaro escalated his rhetoric against the supreme court and other
institutions — walking up to the coup line, perhaps, but not quite
crossing it. There was his threat that if the judiciary continued to
act as it had been, it “will suffer what none of us want.” He also
declared that he would no longer follow rulings made by one of the
supreme court justices, Alexandre de Moraes, who initiated some of the
investigations against him.

“I want to tell those who want to make me unelectable in Brazil:
Only God removes me from there,” Bolsonaro said in São Paulo,
according to the Associated Press
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“There are three options for me: be jailed, killed or victorious.
I’m letting the scoundrels know: I’ll never be imprisoned!”

Bolsonaro’s supporters spoke in all-or-nothing language. “Even if
we need to pick up arms and die for Brazil then we’ll do
that,” Luis Bonne, a 50-year-old civil servant and rally attendee,
told the Guardian
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And though the fears that September 7 might become a preemptive
“stop the steal” didn’t materialize, experts said the danger
hasn’t passed. Instead, it seems clear from Bolsonaro’s language
that there is no scenario where he will let the election play out and
not challenge the results, or willingly leave.

Where the military stands on this adds to the precariousness of the
situation. Bolsonaro does have support among lower ranks and military
police, and elected leaders feared that many would turn out for the
September 7 marches
[[link removed]].

But whether high-ranking generals would go along with a Bolsonaro
power grab or break with him is not at all clear
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Experts said it’s unlikely he has enough of their support to launch
a full-scale coup, but unlikely is not exactly a comfort when it comes
to a military takeover. “Nobody can say this with 100 percent
certainty among many observers who are watching this,” Smith told me
last month. “And the fact that people can’t say this with 100
percent certainty is a source of power for [Bolsonaro].”

Brazil’s institutions have, so far, reacted to Bolsonaro, in some
cases quite strongly. “There are very good signs of that working,”
Barrozo said. “But again, it’s too close to a fatal accident that
it could derail things.”

September 7 showed that Bolsonaro is testing Brazil’s democratic
institutions. The question is how far those institutions can push back
on him — and how much of his onslaught they can withstand.

_Jen Kirby is a Vox Foreign and National Security reporter_

 

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