Top Lines: 2020 Elections | Tariffs and Trade | US Economy | Immigration and the Border | Protecting US Elections | Patriotism & Optimism

Notes On 2020 – On Sunday, in the midst of a dangerous moment for the US and the world in the Middle East, the President referred to his Defense Secretary, Mark Esper, as “Esperanto,” and INVENTED a quote from him about what was happening on the ground in Syria which contained false information. Friends, I'm not sure how much more Republicans need to know to conclude that it is time for Trump to go.

As we saw Pompeo and Mulvaney get drawn deeper into the Ukraine scandal over these past few days, it was a reminder that the scandal involves a criminal conspiracy of the entire senior leadership of our government, including Trump, Pence, Pompeo, Barr, Maguire, Perry, Mulvaney, and dozens of other staff in the WH, State, and DOJ. The scale and gravity of the scandal is enormous; and, as we wrote last week, we think that the President’s indefensible abandonment of the Kurds has made his impeachment inevitable. We also expect far more attention to Trump’s astonishing fealty to Putin in the coming weeks.

On the Democratic side the big news is clear movement for Buttigieg and some rough days for Warren. Warren’s refusal to answer direct and simple questions again about her single payer health care plan has raised questions about her intellectual integrity, perhaps the core of her candidacy. Meanwhile Mayor Pete has had a very good month of polling in Iowa, coming in third now in the last two polls including a new one out this morning from USA Today. The Dem race seems to be changing a bit now.

Finally, a series of stories in the last few weeks raises questions about whether the Democrats are entering the 2020 cycle ready to win in the current way campaigns are fought. We’ve seen smart new stories on whether Dems have fallen behind in the digital realm (here and here), are prepared for this new age of disinformation, should be going after Trump more directly, and risk being dangerously outspent (here and here). Simon offered this observation in a recent Politico piece: “A lot of thinking went into not replicating the mistakes of 2016,” said Simon Rosenberg, who acted as a senior advisor to the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee in 2018. “I’m not sure as much thinking went into re-imagining the DNC’s communications responsibilities in an age of social media, disinformation, and Trump.”

Trump's New Trade "Deal" Is A Gift To China – Since the trade war with China began, the Administration has argued that its goal is the large-scale, structural reform of the Chinese economy, particularly surrounding intellectual property theft, forced technology transfers, and subsidies to domestic industry. Indeed, given the large scale of harm suffered by the American economy so far (300,000 jobs lost, middle class households $1,000 poorer, $100 billion in lost economic output), Trump needs to achieve real concessions for the conflict to be worth it in the first place.

The "phase one deal" that Trump proclaimed two weeks ago achieves none of this. There is nothing, even in principle, about IP theft, technology transfers, industrial subsidies, or an enforcement mechanism, and instead the "deal" merely contains agricultural purchases by China and "reforms" that are already being done (trademark and financial sector laws that have been planned for years). In fact, the $40-50 billion in agricultural purchases touted by Trump is far less than the $66 billion (annualized) reduction in US exports since May 2018 as a result of the trade war. Thus, the major "success" of this deal is to achieve less export access than the US had in February 2018, alongside no structural reforms from China.

But even this is too generous of a characterization of the deal, because the agreement isn't actually written on paper and new reports suggest that China won't abide by the terms touted by Trump. Instead, China has hinted that they want existing tariffs removed before they implement big agricultural purchases (rather than just new tariffs being put on hold as Trump had agreed) and in any case, they want new rounds of talks before they agree to the deal in writing.

Overall, it appears that Trump got scared by the weakening economy and its effects on his 2020 re-election hopes, and as a result caved to the Chinese in return for small concessions at best and nothing at worst. Far from being a "win" on trade, the deal is in fact a gift to China, as it removed the threat of impending tariffs while not forcing them to make any concrete concessions, let alone on the structural reforms about which they particularly don't want to negotiate. You can read more about NDN's work on trade policy under the Trump administration here.

Coming To Terms With New Age Of “Moscow Rules” In US Politics - In a piece we published a few months ago, we decried the embrace by Trump and the GOP of what we call the “Moscow Rules” of politics – the bare knuckled use of all modern tactics such as fake identities, foreign collaboration, hacking, and classic disinformation in our domestic politics. Our fears were heightened when the FEC, the body in charge of policing our elections, was shut down by Trump and the Republicans in late August. And it is with that context that we consider Trump’s effort to invent a scandal against his leading opponent with the aid of a foreign nation – it is literally right out of Putin’s playbook.

Our own assessment of what we’ve seen so far is that our system isn’t really ready to handle this new era. The parties have not yet assumed the degree of responsibility that they will need to battle this new dystopian political world; even simple, easy bills to address these challenges have been blocked by Trump and McConnell; and the Biden campaign still remains remarkably flummoxed by an attack they had to know was coming. Trump’s dropping of $10m into bringing his imaginary scandal to television of course confirms the political nature of his pressure campaign on the Ukrainian President, providing further evidence that once again the President has broken US election laws; but bring it he has, and now all of us have to talk openly about what it is we are witnessing here, and what we can and should be doing about it. This isn’t politics as usual – it is Moscow Rules – and no one can or should be surprised at the ferocity in which it is being practiced by Trump and his party.

Of course, these tactics include the use of high-volume, often clearly fake accounts on Twitter. Our recent effort to build a database of the most influential of these accounts is now up to 288. Feel free to check it out here and review our broader set of recommendations about how to protect our democracy and discourse from foreign manipulation. As well, Simon weighs in on the struggle Democrats are having in responding to Trump’s attacks on Biden in this new Politico piece.

ICYMI – NDN has released proposals to protect our elections, reform US immigration laws, and counter Trump’s reckless protectionism. We’ve also proposed creating a new super department we call the Department of Jobs, Skills, and Economic Development to better target our efforts to ensure no one is left behind. We’ve marveled at the dramatic decline of the GOP’s prospects in the heavily Mexican-American part of the US, and just how much better Democrats have been in managing the US economy in a new age of globalization. We are advising Congress to go slow and be smart in how it reforms the Postal Service – reforms are needed but far more is going right than wrong these days.

We’ve also written a great deal about Trump and his contempt for democracy and the liberal order America has imagined and built. We’ve challenged the conventional wisdom to stop downplaying the enormity of the Russian attack on our system, recognize that Trump is more like Maduro than almost any politician in the West, understand the European elections as a direct repudiation of Trumpism/illiberalism, and acknowledge that America First has become an extraordinary governing and political failure. After repeated mass shootings and the rise of dangerous domestic terrorism, we think the Democrats should make this fall about keeping America and Americans safe.

Recent NDN Media Citations – You can find us in these recent stories: ABC/FiveThirtyEight, AP (here, here, here), Atlantic, CNN (article, TV), Financial Times, MSNBC, NBC News, New York Times, Politico, Real Clear Politics, San Antonio Express-News, Slate, Telemundo, Time Magazine, USA Today, Washington Monthly, and the Washington Post (here, here, here, here, here, here, here, here). Simon offers extensive remarks about the 2020 Democratic Primary in this recent Ron Brownstein Atlantic piece - we think it is well worth your time.

You can also catch Simon in extended interviews on politics and disinformation in this new Future State podcast hosted by Dick Clarke, on Democrats and immigration in this Slate podcast hosted by Univision’s Leon Krauze, and in Fernand Amandi’s new Strange Days podcast on why Democrats need to go big and make their indictment of Trump far more than about “obstruction.”

Support Our Far-Sighted Work Today – We know there are many calls on your giving, but please consider donating to NDN today. Whatever amount - $5, $25, $100 – it all helps us keep the ideas and insights coming.

Best,

Simon, Chris, and the rest of the NDN team



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