Dear John,

A few weeks ago, we featured a blog post highlighting the two Northern Virginia ZIP codes with the highest number of eviction filings and judgments (rulings in favor of the landlord) during the COVID-19 pandemic. (Please note: Because the data used in our dashboard are obtained on a rolling basis, monthly totals are subject to revision over time as new data becomes available and continued cases are resolved.)

Tracking the number of filings and eviction judgments in our region provides a glimpse of the burden of housing instability and displacement, but it is far from an exhaustive picture. Some households, particularly those who were “cost-burdened” (spending more than 30% of their income on housing) and unable to accrue savings before the pandemic, have taken on debt or cut spending on necessities such as food and medical care to avoid falling behind on rent. Others have doubled-up with another household in crowded living conditions or resorted to couch surfing, leading to frequent moves and constant anxiety over where they will stay next.

It is difficult to estimate the number of households facing these circumstances because, in many cases, such households do not make contact with the court or homeless service system – two primary sources for data on eviction and housing instability. One exception is when a household facing eviction moves without undergoing the full legal process. This is sometimes referred to as an “informal eviction”, and can occur if a tenant does not understand their rights or wants to avoid contact with the legal system.

When an “informal eviction” occurs and the tenant does not show up to court it results in a “default” or automatic judgment in favor of the landlord. Tracking the number of default judgments and the default judgment rate (the number of default judgments over the total number of eviction filings) at the ZIP code-level provides a clue as to which neighborhoods may be experiencing the highest volume of informal evictions.

Between April 2020 and June 2021, ZIP code 22191 in Prince William County led the region in default judgments, with 217 default judgments out of 674 eviction filings (a default judgment rate of 32.20%). The ZIP code with the next highest number of default judgments was 22304 in the City of Alexandria with 123 default judgments out of 544 eviction filings (a default judgment rate 22.61%).

It is important to note that a default judgment does always mean an informal eviction occurred. Under Virginia state law, there is an automatic ruling for the landlord anytime a tenant does not appear in court. A tenant may be unable to appear if they cannot take time off work, if they lack access to child care or transportation, if they are sick or for any number of other reasons.

The fact that tenants lose their eviction cases automatically if they are unable to appear in court speaks more broadly to a lack of parity in Virginia’s landlord-tenant laws. This imbalance disproportionately impacts lower income tenants, who are more likely to be housing cost-burdened and housing insecure, and are less likely to have access to paid leave, transportation and affordable child care.

ZIP code-level data on the median income for renter-occupied households (based on American Community Survey 5-year estimates, 2015-19), points to the relationship between income and default judgments. The median renter household income is $63,145 in 22191 and $67,752 in 22304. For comparison, the average median renter household income across all ZIP codes included in the dashboard is $84,134, and the median renter household income in both 22191 and 22304 is below 60% of the area median income for a family of three in the DC metro region.

Just as every default judgment does not represent an informal eviction, not every informal eviction leads to a default judgment. If a tenant moves out after missing a rent payment or receiving a pay-or-quit notice (written notice landlords must provide before filing an eviction suit) their landlord may choose not to file suit and a judgment will not be entered, leaving no record of a household in crisis.

Despite these nuances, a large number of default judgments at the locality or ZIP code-level points to a need for enhanced outreach to ensure tenants know their rights at each stage of the eviction process, and a need for increased supportive services to enable tenants to appear in court or (ideally) to eliminate the need to appear in court through prefiling interventions, such as landlord-tenant mediation. These services should be targeted toward lower income tenants and communities who face both a greater risk of eviction and increased barriers to appearing in court to defend their right to remain stably housed.

Like this post? Join our mailing list to receive future installments in this series. Future posts will cover rental assistance, eviction as a racial equity issue and the impact of pandemic-related tenant protections.