August 31, 2021

This month’s newsletter features the findings from an Iran Watch roundtable
on the “atomic archive,” a trove of information about Iran’s past nuclear
weapons program that was clandestinely acquired by Israel in 2018 from a
storage building in Tehran. An expert panel convened by the Wisconsin
Project on Nuclear Arms Control identified lessons that may be drawn from
the archive about the role and value of export controls, inspections, and
other international measures in slowing or preventing a country from
developing nuclear weapons.

The newsletter also features profiles of Iranian and North Korean missile
experts and of an Iranian research center suspected of involvement in
ballistic missile cooperation with North Korea. Other items in the
newsletter include news briefs on a deadly Iranian drone attack on a ship
in the Gulf of Oman and Iranian nuclear advances in violation of the JCPOA,
as well as documents from the Iran Watch library about these developments.

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PUBLICATIONS

[3]

Image courtesy of the Israeli Foreign Ministry.

Roundtable | [4]Iran’s Atomic Archive: Lessons Learned for Export Control
and Inspections

Information regarding Iran’s past nuclear weapon program emerged in 2018,
when Israel unveiled information from Iran’s so-called “atomic archive.”
This information merits consideration in shaping U.S. policy toward Iran,
specifically as part of current efforts to revive or expand the Joint
Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) or to design a new agreement. The
Wisconsin Project convened a group of experts for two private discussions
to determine lessons from the archive on the role and value of export
controls, inspections, and other international measures in slowing or
preventing a country's ability to develop nuclear weapons.

The panel found that while export controls slowed the development of
Iran’s clandestine nuclear program they did not prevent the program from
advancing. Iran obtained items from abroad, including items that were below
the control thresholds of multilateral supply regimes, developed indigenous
production capability, and received critical foreign assistance through
non-official channels. The archive reinforces the importance of supporting
the monitoring efforts of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA),
which the panel found would be aided by an Iranian data declaration,
expanded IAEA access to individuals and sites, the authority for the IAEA
to investigate allegations of weaponization, and member state support and
intelligence sharing.

[5]READ THE ROUNDTABLE FINDINGS

ENTITIES OF CONCERN

North Korea has allegedly served as one of Iran’s most reliable partners in
the development of ballistic missiles. A recent U.N. Panel of Experts
report documented allegations that Iranian and North Korean experts
affiliated with state-run missile producers [6]Shahid Hemat Industrial
Group (SHIG) and [7]Korea Mining Development Trading Corporation (KOMID)
traveled between the two countries to cooperate on missile-related
technology, including an Iranian space launch vehicle (SLV) and a North
Korean 80-ton rocket booster.

[8]Seid Mir Ahmad Nooshin

Director of the Aerospace Industries Organization (AIO) and former director
of SHIG; according to the U.S. Department of the Treasury, involved in the
development of an 80-ton rocket booster being undertaken jointly by SHIG
and North Korea, and travelled to North Korea to negotiate the contract for
the development of the booster.

[9]LEARN MORE

[10]Asghar Esma’ilpur

An official in the AIO; has served as director of Shahid Haj Ali Movahed
Research Center; according to a U.N. Panel of Experts report, suspected of
involvement in technical and logistical cooperation between SHIG and KOMID,
and of supporting an SLV launch in Iran.

[11]LEARN MORE

[12]Shahid Haj Ali Movahed Research Center

A subsidiary of SHIG; according to the U.S. Department of the Treasury, has
played a key role in missile cooperation between Iran and North Korea;
according to a U.N. Panel of Experts report, suspected of receiving support
and assistance from North Korean missile specialists on an SLV.

[13]LEARN MORE

The Panel of Experts report also named the following KOMID-affiliated North
Korean missile specialists as allegedly having traveled to Iran to work on
an SLV:
* [14]Chae Hyok Mu
* [15]Cho Myong Ho
* [16]Choe Pyong Wan
* [17]Choe Song Hyok
* [18]Ha Chong Kuk
* [19]Hong Hak Chol
* [20]Kim Chang Rok
* [21]Kim Ho Chol
* [22]Kim Won Il
* [23]Ma Chol Won
* [24]Pak Chae Song
* [25]Ri Song Chol
* [26]Ryu Yon Chol

IN THE NEWS

[27]

Image courtesy of the U.S. Department of Defense.

[28]U.S., U.K. and Israel Blame Iran for Ship Attack; Tehran Denies |
Associated Press

August 1: Israel, the United Kingdom, and the United States accused Iran of
using one or more explosive-carrying drones to attack the Mercer Street, an
oil tanker traveling in the Arabian Sea near Oman. The strike killed two
members of the Mercer Street’s crew and—according to a U.S. official—blew a
hole in the top of the ship’s bridge. Following the attack, the U.S. Navy
escorted the Mercer Street to safety. Zodiac Maritime, a London-based
company controlled by Israeli businessman Eyal Ofer, manages the Mercer
Street, whereas the Japan-based firm Taihei Kaiun Co. owns the vessel. The
deceased crewmen were nationals of the United Kingdom and Romania,
respectively. British Foreign Secretary Dominic Raab said that the United
Kingdom and its allies planned a joint response to the alleged Iranian
strike, which he described as a violation of international law. A spokesman
for Iran’s Foreign Ministry denied any Iranian involvement in the
operation.

[29]U.N. Nuclear Watchdog: Iran Producing More Uranium Metal | Associated
Press

August 17: The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) reported that Iran
had produced 200 grams of uranium metal enriched up to 20 percent purity as
of August 14. Iran had previously produced smaller quantities of the metal.
The Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), the international agreement
imposing restrictions on Iran’s nuclear program, prohibits the country from
making uranium metal, which has applications in nuclear weapons. The U.S.
State Department criticized Iran’s production of enriched uranium metal and
described the move as undermining negotiations to return Iran and the
United States to compliance with the JCPOA.

[30]Iran Lifts Production Capacity of Uranium Close to Weapons Grade |
Bloomberg

August 18: The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) confirmed on
August 15 that Iran had introduced a second cascade of centrifuges capable
of enriching uranium to 60 percent purity at the Natanz nuclear facility.
The expansion doubles the Natanz facility’s capacity to enrich uranium to
60 percent. Iran had previously shut down the second cascade in April, at
the start of now-paused negotiations to return Iran and the United States
to compliance with the JCPOA. Iran claimed to have stockpiled 8.9 kilograms
of uranium enriched to 60 percent in July, up from 2.4 kilograms the
previous month.

FROM THE LIBRARY

Months of covert maritime conflict between Iran and Israel flared into the
open when the Mercer Street, a vessel linked to an Israeli businessman, was
struck by drones in the Gulf of Oman. Two crew members were killed. Several
governments blamed the attack on Iran.
* [31]The United Kingdom and [32]the United States accuse Iran of the
attack on the Mercer Street – August 1
* [33]Iran denies the U.K. and U.S. allegations – August 4
* [34]The U.S. Defense Department provides evidence of Iranian
involvement – August 6
* [35]The G7 backs the U.K. and U.S. assertions – August 6

Prospects for a return to compliance with the JCPOA by Iran and the United
States have dimmed. Iran continues to advance its nuclear program in
violation of the accord, and recently inaugurated President Ebrahim Raisi
named an individual sanctioned by the United Nations as the new head of the
Atomic Energy Organization of Iran (AEOI). In the meantime, the United
States sanctioned additional individuals and entities linked to Iran
sanctions violations.
* [36]The U.S. Treasury Department sanctions an Omani oil broker tied to
the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) – August 13
* [37]Iran defends “peaceful and civilian nature of” its nuclear
activities – August 18
* [38]France, Germany, and the United Kingdom condemn Iranian production
of uranium metal enriched to 20 percent – August 19
* [39]Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi appoints Mohammad Eslami as the new
head of the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran – August 29

Iran Watch is a website published by the Wisconsin Project on Nuclear Arms
Control. The Wisconsin Project is a non-profit, non-partisan organization
that conducts research, advocacy, and public education aimed at inhibiting
strategic trade from contributing to the proliferation of weapons of mass
destruction.

Copyright © 2021 - Wisconsin Project on Nuclear Arms Control

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