Hood (D), Reeves (R) hold second gubernatorial debate in Mississippi

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Start your weekend off by reviewing what happened in state and local politics this week. Click the link below to read the full version online!

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** EDWARDS (D), RISPONE (R) ADVANCE TO LOUISIANA GUBERNATORIAL GENERAL ELECTION
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Incumbent Gov. John Bel Edwards (D) and businessman Eddie Rispone (R) advanced from Louisiana’s primary election ([link removed])) as the top two finishers Saturday. Edwards received 47% of the vote and Rispone received 27%. U.S. Rep. Ralph Abraham (R) was third with 24% of the vote. The general election ([link removed]) will be held November 16.

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Louisiana uses what’s known as a blanket primary, where all candidates in any race appear on the ballot—regardless of party. A candidate can win the election outright by receiving more than 50 percent of the primary vote. Otherwise, the top two finishers advance to a general election. Six candidates ran in the gubernatorial primary. 

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Edwards has campaigned on what he considers the accomplishments of his administration, including the state’s budget going from a deficit to a surplus, teacher pay raises, and Medicaid expansion. Rispone has emphasized his background as a businessman, referring to himself as a conservative outsider and job creator. He has criticized Edwards’ tenure, saying the state’s economy ranks last in the nation.

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Rispone and Abraham were both endorsed by President Donald Trump (R) and the Louisiana Republican Party. Each candidate described himself as the stronger challenger to Edwards. Several polls leading up to the primary showed either Rispone and Abraham tied within margins of error for second place or Rispone with a small advantage.

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Edwards is the only Democratic governor in the Deep South and the only Democrat holding statewide office in Louisiana. Donald Trump won the state by 20 percentage points in 2016. The Republican Governors Association has described Louisiana as a top pickup opportunity, while the Democratic Governors Association has said Edwards’ popularity positions him for re-election.

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Of the five gubernatorial elections between 1999 and 2015, three were won outright in the primary and two (in 2003 and 2015) proceeded to general elections. Edwards was elected governor in 2015 with 56% of the vote, defeating U.S. Sen. David Vitter (R) in the general election. He succeeded Gov. Bobby Jindal (R).

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** HOOD (D), REEVES (R) DISCUSS FISCAL POLICY, EDUCATION IN MISSISSIPPI GUBERNATORIAL DEBATE
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Mississippi gubernatorial candidates Tate Reeves ([link removed]) (R) and Jim Hood ([link removed]) (D) debated for the second time in less than a week at the WCBI studio in Columbus Monday. As in the first debate, Reeves and Hood emphasized the differences in their education and fiscal policies. As in the October 10 debate, both candidates called for an increase in teacher pay. Reeves again accused Hood of being unable to fund his policy proposals without raising taxes, while Hood again accused Reeves of supporting policies which would benefit his campaign donors over the average citizen.

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With less than three weeks until the November 5 election ([link removed]) , Donald Trump Jr. and Kimberly Guilfoyle announced Wednesday that they would headline a Reeves fundraiser outside Hattiesburg on October 24. Former Gov. Jeb Bush (R-Fla.) had held a fundraiser for Reeves on October 1.

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Hood, Reeves, Bob Hickingbottom (Constitution), and David Singletary (I) are the four candidates running for governor on November 5. Term limits prevent incumbent Phil Bryant (R) from seeking a third term. 

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In order to win election to statewide office in Mississippi, the state constitution requires that a candidate win a majority of the statewide vote as well as carry a majority of the 122 state House districts. If no candidate does both, the state House will decide the winner. A lawsuit challenging the requirement is currently before a federal district judge.

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** REPUBLICANS MAINTAIN STATE LEGISLATIVE CONTROL IN LOUISIANA AFTER PRIMARY 
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Republicans continue to hold legislative majorities in the Louisiana state Senate and House following the primary elections ([link removed]) .

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All 39 of Louisiana's state Senate seats ([link removed]) were up for election. Although four seats advanced to a general election, partisan control of each is already determined in those districts—three had a pair of Republicans advance while the fourth had a pair of Democrats. Republicans will have a 27-12 majority—a net gain of two seats—which gives them one seat more than the 26-seat threshold required to override gubernatorial vetoes.

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In Louisiana’s state House elections ([link removed]) , Republicans are assured of winning at least 63 seats, Democrats 33 seats, and one was won by an independent. This includes races that were decided in the primary as well as those where both of the top two finishers are from the same party. Control of eight seats will be determined in the November 16 general election. A veto-proof majority in the state House requires 70 seats. In Louisiana, congressional and state legislative districts are drawn by the state legislature during redistricting.

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Since Republicans have maintained control of both chambers of the state legislature, trifecta control of state government will be at stake in the gubernatorial election. The state will maintain divided government if Edwards wins re-election. If Rispone wins, Louisiana will become a Republican trifecta.

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Here are some other key results from Louisiana:

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Six statewide executive offices, including the lieutenant governorship and attorney general's office, were won outright by Republican incumbents.  

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In addition to governor, one other statewide executive office will be decided in the general election as none of the four candidates received a majority of the vote. Incumbent Kyle Ardoin (R) finished first in the secretary of state primary ([link removed]) with 41% and will face Gwen Collins-Greenup (D), who finished second with 34%. Ardoin and two other Republicans received a combined 66% of the vote; Collins-Greenup was the only Democrat in the race. Ardoin defeated Collins-Greenup in a 2018 special election—59% to 41%—after Ardoin assumed office in May 2018 following the resignation of Tom Schedler (R). Ardoin is one of 25 Republican secretaries of state nationwide.

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Voters decided all eight seats ([link removed]) on the state Board of Elementary and Secondary Education—currently under a 6-2 Republican majority. Seven races were decided with none resulting in a change in party control. The results of the District 6 seat—an open seat previously held by Kathy Edmonston (R)—is considered too close to call. 

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Louisiana voters approved two constitutional amendments ([link removed]) and rejected two. 

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** SEATTLE CITY COUNCIL RACES SEE ADDITIONAL CHAMBER OF COMMERCE CONTRIBUTIONS
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Amazon gave an additional $1 million to Civic Alliance for a Sound Economy (CASE), the Seattle Metropolitan Chamber of Commerce's political action committee. This brings Amazon's total contribution to $1.5 million throughout the Seattle City Council election cycle.

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Seattle is holding elections for seven city council districts ([link removed]) on November 5; the council's two at-large seats are up for election in 2021. Four races are open, while incumbents Lisa Herbold (District 1), Kshama Sawant (District 3), and Debora Juarez (District 5) are seeking re-election. CASE endorsed Juarez in her re-election bid and endorsed challengers to Herbold and Sawant. 

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One CASE-endorsed candidate advanced from each of the seven primary races in August. In five of the seven races, Civic Alliance for a Progressive Economy (CAPE)—a PAC formed by the group Working Washington—endorsed a different candidate than CASE (the group has not endorsed in Districts 5 or 7). 

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CASE had spent around $1 million supporting and opposing candidates through October 17. CAPE had spent around $240,000. The races had seen $2.6 million total in satellite spending. In 2015—the last time the seven district seats were on the ballot—satellite spending totaled $785,000.

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The elections are occurring a year after the repeal of the 2018 head tax proposal, which would have required businesses grossing at least $20 million to pay $275 per employee in order to fund affordable housing programs for the homeless. The city council voted to pass the head tax 9-0 in May 2018 but then repealed it by a 7-2 vote in June 2018 after running into opposition from the city’s business community, including Amazon. Sawant and Position 8 At-large Councilmember Teresa Mosqueda cast the two votes against repealing the tax. Juarez and Herbold voted with five others to repeal it.

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** KENTUCKY ATTORNEY GENERAL CANDIDATES DEBATE QUALIFICATIONS, CRIMINAL JUSTICE REFORM
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Daniel Cameron (R) and Greg Stumbo (D) participated in the first televised debate ([link removed]) of the Kentucky attorney general ([link removed]) election Monday. The conversation focused on the candidates’ qualifications to handle the issues that might face them in office, including abortion laws, firearm legislation, criminal justice reform, pension systems, medical marijuana provisions, and pending lawsuits the state has brought against opioid manufacturers.

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Throughout the event, Cameron emphasized the endorsements he has received from President Donald Trump ([link removed]) and the Kentucky Fraternal Order of Police, citing their support as evidence of his ability to succeed as attorney general. Stumbo highlighted his previous experience as attorney general and speaker of the Kentucky House of Representatives, saying they make him qualified to run the attorney general’s office. 

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Heading into the election, Kentucky is one of 15 states under divided triplex control ([link removed]) , meaning that its governor ([link removed]) , attorney general ([link removed]) , and secretary of state ([link removed]) do not belong to a single political party. That status is at stake in 2019. The attorney general election is occurring alongside Kentucky's gubernatorial ([link removed]) and secretary of state ([link removed]) elections, meaning either party could gain triplex control in 2019.

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Kentucky is one of nine states ([link removed]) where the governor and the attorney general are not from the same party. Going into the election, there are ([link removed]) 25 Democratic attorneys general, 24 Republican attorneys general, and one nonpartisan ([link removed]) attorney general who was appointed by a Democratic governor.

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** BALLOT MEASURES UPDATE
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** 2019:
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Thirty-two statewide measures ([link removed]) will be on Nov. 2019 ballots in Colorado, Kansas, Maine, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Texas, and Washington. 

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Four Louisiana measures were on the Oct. 12 ballot. Two were approved, and two were defeated.

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Besides the 24 binding 2019 statewide measures, Washington voters will see 12 non-binding advisory votes ([link removed]) concerning revenue-increasing bills recently passed by the legislature that were automatically added to the ballot.

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Last week Ballotpedia released its analysis of the readability of the ballot language of the 2019 statewide measures ([link removed]) . The readability formula used showed an average grade level requirement of 15 years of U.S. education for 2019 ballot language. In 2018 and 2017, the averages were about 20 years.

 
** 2020:
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Forty-two statewide measures ([link removed]) in 20 states have been certified for the 2020 ballot so far.

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One measure, a veto referendum in Maine ([link removed]) concerning exceptions to vaccination requirements, was certified for the March 2020 primary election.

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Seven of the 42 certified 2020 measures are citizen-initiated measures. Thirty-four are legislative referrals. One is an automatic constitutional revision commission question.

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** SPECIAL ELECTIONS
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So far this year, 77 state legislative special elections ([link removed]) have been scheduled in 24 states. Special elections have been held for 55 seats so far; heading into those races, Democrats had previously controlled 30 of the seats while Republicans previously controlled 25. Four seats have flipped from Democratic control to Republican control. One seat has flipped from Republican control to Democratic control. One seat has flipped from Republican control to an independent officeholder. 

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In special elections between 2011 and 2018, one party (either Republicans or Democrats) saw an average net gain of four seats nationally each year.

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An average of 91 seats were filled through special elections in each of the past four odd years (2011 ([link removed]) : 94, 2013 ([link removed]) : 84, 2015 ([link removed]) : 88, 2017 ([link removed]) : 98).

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An average of 55 seats were filled through special elections in each of the past five even years (2010 ([link removed]) : 26, 2012 ([link removed]) : 45, 2014 ([link removed]) : 40, 2016 ([link removed]) : 65, 2018 ([link removed]) : 99).

 
** UPCOMING SPECIAL ELECTIONS INCLUDE:
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November 5

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Alabama House of Representatives District 42 ([link removed])

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Arkansas House of Representatives District 36 ([link removed])

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California State Assembly District 1 ([link removed])

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Georgia House of Representatives District 152 ([link removed])

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Kentucky House of Representatives District 18 ([link removed])

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Kentucky House of Representatives District 63 ([link removed])

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Mississippi State Senate District 50 ([link removed])

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Missouri House of Representatives District 22 ([link removed])

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Missouri House of Representatives District 36 ([link removed])

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Missouri House of Representatives District 74 ([link removed])

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Missouri House of Representatives District 78 ([link removed])

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Missouri House of Representatives District 99 ([link removed])

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Missouri House of Representatives District 158 ([link removed])

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New Jersey State Senate District 1 ([link removed])

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New York State Senate District 57 ([link removed])

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Tennessee House of Representatives District 77 (primary) ([link removed])

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Texas House of Representatives District 28 ([link removed])

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Texas House of Representatives District 100 ([link removed])

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Texas House of Representatives District 148 ([link removed])

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Washington State Senate District 40 ([link removed])

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Washington House of Representatives District 13-Position 2 ([link removed])

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** STATES IN SESSION
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Five states—Massachusetts, Michigan, North Carolina, Ohio, and Wisconsin—are in regular session. New Jersey, Pennsylvania, and Virginia are in recess. Forty-two states have adjourned their 2019 legislative sessions.

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** BALLOTPEDIA IN THE NEWS
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Ballot Measures expert Josh Altic was interviewed ([link removed]) for a _Vice _piece on Oregon's Psilocybin Program Initiative ([link removed]) which may appear on 2020 ballots. "Compared to other liberal states with ballot measures, 'you are not going to have to spend as much on your campaign in Oregon,' said Josh Altic, Ballot Measures Project Director for Ballotpedia. Data from the non-partisan organization shows that among left-leaning states, Oregon has among the lowest average cost for getting enough signatures to qualify for the ballot and for running a persuasion campaign, he said. This has historically made Oregon a point of interest for national organizations and groups across a wide range of issues who are looking to test new policies or trying to start national trends."
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The Lucy Burns Institute, publisher of Ballotpedia, is a 501(c)(3) nonprofit organization. All donations are tax deductible to the extent of the law. Donations to the Lucy Burns Institute or Ballotpedia do not support any candidates or campaigns.
 

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