Boris Johnson's deal: the main claims fact checked

There has been a lot of speculation in the news over what Boris Johnson's deal will mean for the future of the UK.

In the run up to tomorrow's parliamentary vote on it—we've taken a look at some of the biggest claims.

We'll likely be seeing a lot more about this in the coming week. Please keep an eye on our website for more.

Could we still have a “no deal” Brexit in 2020 at the end of the transition?

The past day has seen numerous claims that the revised withdrawal agreement negotiated between Boris Johnson’s government and the European Union allows for a new “no deal” scenario in just over a year’s time at the end of the transition period.

Our verdict: The claim that "no deal" remains a possibility is broadly correct, although it’s important to emphasise that this is a different type of “no deal” to the one that’s commonly discussed.

The old "no deal" refers to leaving the EU without a withdrawal agreement in place; this new “no deal” refers to not having agreed details of the UK and EU’s future trading relationship by the end of the transition period, which could be in December 2020 at the earliest.

Does the new withdrawal agreement create a border in the Irish Sea?

DUP spokesman Sammy Wilson said this morning on LBC radio that the new withdrawal agreement will create a “border down the Irish Sea” with checks taking place on goods crossing into Northern Ireland from Great Britain.

Our verdict: It’s correct that goods checks will have to take place. This will kick in at the end of the transition period, unless or until the UK and EU sign a trade agreement superseding it. The transition period would last until December 2020 at the earliest, or at the latest December 2022.

Flawed comparison between Brexit and financial crisis

In a tweet this morning, Liberal Democrat MP Chuka Umunna claimed that “The Government's own research says that Boris Johnson's Brexit proposals would lead to a 6.7% drop in GDP and 6.4% drop in real wages - the kind of hit to the economy experienced in the financial crash”

Our verdict: Mr Umunna was referencing economic analyses published by the government in November 2018, which modelled the economic outcomes under different Brexit scenarios.

But he’s wrong to say GDP and real wages would “drop” according to this analysis and his comparison to the financial crash is misleading.

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