US capitulates to Taliban in Afghanistan -
emergence of a new Middle East? 
19 August 2021

A weekly reflection on current global affairs concerning Israel and
the Jewish people from a Biblical perspective. 

The dramatic capitulation of the United States to the Taliban regime in Afghanistan this week signals the end of decades of US hegemony in the region, and the beginning of a new era of great geo-political instability. 
 
The 20 year campaign that cost the US alone US $83 billion failed to achieve either of its goals: destruction of Al-Qaida and its allies, and the rebuilding of Afghanistan into a democratic state. Instead, Afghanistan has collapsed, the Taliban has returned to power, and Al-Qaida has not been eradicated. 
 
Middle East analysts are grappling to understand what this all means. 
 
Some initial observations. First, the Taliban take-over opens the door for groups like Al Qaida and ISIS and other extremist Islamist forces to gain footholds not only in Afghanistan but also throughout the region of the Middle East, Central Asia and (northern) Africa. It remains to be seen how the Taliban will manage its relationship with Al-Qaida and ISIS, but Afghanistan could now potentially provide a haven for these jihadist movements to pursue their existential war against everything that the United States stands for: freedom, democracy and Judeo-Christian values. 
 
Second, as Yochanan Visser observes, the Afghanistan debacle shows the war on terror is an existential war which can only be ended by military victory; “only the utter defeat of its enemies can prevent future terror and war”. 
 
Third, a new balance of power is being created, in which the “West” is increasingly isolated and emasculated. Already, anti-Western powers like China, Russia, Iran, Pakistan, and Turkey, smelling the sweet bloody odors of the US-defeat, are circling Afghanistan like vultures ready to swoop and take their prey. This needs to be seen in light of the vacuum already being created in many other countries in the region, such as Lebanon, Iraq, Syria, Yemen, and Libya. 
 
Fourth, it seems the US and many Western nations are either unaware of the depth and nature of this crisis, and/or hold the view that the war can be managed through diplomatic and other non-military means. 
 
Fifth, all of this has huge implications for Israel. Amongst other things, US withdrawal from the region will inevitably enable regimes like Iran that are hostile towards Israel, and violent anti-Israel groups like Al-Qaida, to increase their influence in Gaza, the West Bank, Lebanon. The impact on Israel’s friends in the region such as Jordan, Egypt and UAE who are more or less allied to Western interests remain to be seen. For sure, Israel can no longer assume it can rely on the United States or any other Western ally to defend her. Israel stands increasingly alone, and needs to forge her own strategy for managing these threats. 

In the midst of chaos and confusion, let us not be downcast, but put our trust in the One who watches over Israel and neither slumbers nor sleeps (Psalm 121:4). 


The Editorial team

The Taliban Victory and the Lessons for Israel

Yochanan Visser writes for Israel Today: Israel needs to understand what the US no longer does: Only the utter defeat of its enemies can prevent future terror and war.

Unpredictable consequences from the Afghan crisis

Seth J. Frantzman writes in JPost: “The long term consequence may be that the Afghan War symbolizes a global shift away from US power. The US became a global hegemon in the wake of the Second World War and Cold War and that has led to the construction of an American world order based around US allies and partners from South Korea to Israel, from NATO to US bases that used to be in place like Afghanistan. 

(…) Insurgent and proxy groups backed by Iran, Turkey or others may increase global chaos in some places and quietly eat away at liberal international structures."

Who are the Taliban who conquered Afghanistan?

Dr.James M. Dorsey writes at BESA: “The Taliban have so far however left unaddressed their relationship with terrorist groups in Afghanistan such as al-Qaeda, a key factor in the way they will be perceived by all segments of the international community.”

Counter-terrorism expert: ‘Taliban has alliances with Islamist forces in Syria’

According to Yaakov Lapin in JNS, Senior researcher at the International Institute for Counter-Terrorism Michael Barak said that Al-Qaeda’s propaganda chatter has risen dramatically along with the Taliban’s takeover of Afghanistan. “Al Qaeda is on the rise due to events in Afghanistan,” said Barak. "Despite the Taliban’s denial of an alliance with Al-Qaeda in Afghanistan, this claim is false, with the Taliban harboring some 400 Al-Qaeda operatives in the country."

Increased Iranian assertion in the region 

Jonathan Spyer writes about the recent murder of Mousa Babakhani, a leading figure in an Iranian opposition party, who was found dead early August in a hotel room in the Iraqi Kurdish capital city of Erbil. According to Spyer, "there is a  pattern of increased Iranian assertion across a number of files and locations in the region in recent weeks."