From CEP's Eye on Extremism <[email protected]>
Subject First Resistance To Taliban Rule Tests Afghanistan’s Uncertain Future
Date August 19, 2021 1:31 PM
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“As the Taliban sought to consolidate control over Afghanistan on Wednesday,
they faced the first challenges to their renewed rule, using force to bre

 

 


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Eye on Extremism


August 19, 2021 

 

 

The New York Times: First Resistance To Taliban Rule Tests Afghanistan’s
Uncertain Future
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“As the Taliban sought to consolidate control over Afghanistan on Wednesday,
they faced the first challenges to their renewed rule, using force to break up
protests in at least two cities, while an opposing faction vowed to hold out in
one pocket of the country. Millions of Afghans tried to parse conflicting clues
about what lay in store for them and their nation, but many were not waiting to
find out. Despite Taliban assurances that there would be no reprisals against
their opponents, thousands of people continued to crowd around the airport in
Kabul, the capital, hoping to get a flight out of the country. Throngs rushed
toward certain entrances, only to be met by Taliban troops who beat people back
and fired their rifles into the air. A NATO official at the scene said 17
people were injured. Taliban fighters used gunfire to disperse demonstrations
in the northeastern city of Jalalabad and the southeastern city of Khost, with
some of the protesters raising the Afghan government flags that the Taliban had
taken down just days earlier. News reports said two or three people were killed
in Jalalabad. But in other cities, a tense quiet prevailed.”

 

Times Of Israel: Gaza Terror Groups Threaten ‘Escalation’ As Progress Reported
In Qatari Aid Deal
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“Palestinian factions in Gaza said on Wednesday that they were prepared to
“escalate” hostilities against Israel unless restrictions on the enclave were
loosened and announced a protest Saturday near the border fence. “An explosion
and escalation are inevitable if the status quo persists. The weak Zionist
government must realize the price of its continued existence is ending the
aggression against the West Bank and Jerusalem and ending the siege on Gaza,”
senior Islamic Jihad official Khalid al-Batsh said in a statement. After a
Wednesday meeting, Gaza factions also announced that they would begin “a series
of activities” to increase the pressure on Israel. In statements following the
meeting, officials said they would hold a mass gathering in Malika camp on
Saturday afternoon close to the security fence with Israel. Malika was a key
site of protests against Israel near the Gaza border fence in 2018 and 2019.
The demonstrations, many of which saw violent clashes between terror group
members and Israeli soldiers, left hundreds of Gazans dead. Tensions between
the two sides have been mounting again in recent weeks, propelled by an
apparent lack of immediate progress in ceasefire talks to allow Gaza to rebuild
following the 11-day conflict in May.”

 

United States

 

Reuters: Court Rejects 'Shockingly Low' 4-Year Sentence For NY Woman Who Aided
Islamic State
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“A U.S. federal appeals court on Wednesday threw out what it called a
“shockingly low” four-year prison term for a Brooklyn woman who admitted to
supporting Islamic State, and ordered that she be resentenced. The 2nd U.S.
Circuit Court of Appeals in Manhattan said late U.S. District Judge Jack
Weinstein abused his discretion in finding Sinmyah Amera Ceasar’s need for
educational and mental health support after a lifetime of emotional, physical
and sexual abuse justified the sentence. While “not without sympathy” for
Ceasar, Circuit Judge Robert Sack said the four-year term “shocks the
conscience,” failing to balance her need for rehabilitation against the needs
to ensure just punishment and promote respect for the law. “We further conclude
that in comparison with sentences for similar terrorism crimes, Ceasar’s
sentence of 48 months’ imprisonment was shockingly low and unsupportable as a
matter of law,” Sack wrote for a three-judge panel. Prosecutors had sought a
30- to 50-year prison term, calling the 26-year-old Ceasar a “committed
recruiter” for Islamic State who, using the name “Umm Nutella,” tried to
connect supporters in the United States with operatives in other countries.”

 

Syria

 

The Defense Post: Syria’s Top Jihadist Group Hails Taliban Takeover
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“The Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) alliance, led by Al-Qaeda’s former Syria
affiliate, on Wednesday welcomed the Taliban takeover of Afghanistan, saying it
hoped Syria’s jihadists would also be victorious. The armed group that formally
broke ties with Al-Qaeda years ago is considered to be the most prominent
jihadist group in Syria after a decade of war. HTS controls nearly half of the
Idlib region — the last remaining opposition bastion in Syria — alongside other
less influential groups. It said the Taliban takeover of Afghanistan following
two decades of US occupation was an example to follow. “We congratulate our
Taliban brothers and our people in Afghanistan for this clear conquest, and ask
God to also grant the Syrian revolution victory,” it said in a statement
released on its social media channels. HTS formally cut ties with Al-Qaeda in
2016 in a rebranding effort that saw it move closer to Syrian rebel groups in
the country’s northwest. But it is still widely seen as a hardline jihadist
outfit by activists and Idlib residents who have been subject to arbitrary
arrests, forced disappearances, and brutal killings at the hands of HTS
fighters. The Syrian government controls two-thirds of the country after 10
years of war.”

 

Afghanistan

 

The Wall Street Journal: Taliban Is Denied Aid Tagged For Afghanistan, But
Taps Billion-Dollar Drug Trade
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“The Biden administration is set to cut off the Taliban’s access to billions
of dollars in critical overseas finance, but some officials warn that the
terror-group’s income from drug sales and other illicit activities threatens to
undermine Washington’s last-resort pressure campaign. The U.S. has largely
secured the backing it needs to block the Taliban’s access to billions in
reserves held at the International Monetary Fund and assistance pledged through
the World Bank and other donor groups, according to people familiar with the
matter. The country cannot access its reserves at the IMF or other fund
resources, an official at the emergency lender told The Wall Street Journal
Wednesday. The administration’s diplomatic scramble to prevent the Taliban from
tapping accounts established by the Afghan government has focused on ensuring
the group isn’t recognized as the country’s legitimate government by foreign
governments that control those accounts, the people said.  Washington froze
billions of dollars in Afghan government assets and halted cash shipments to
the country as the Taliban seized the nation’s capital over the weekend. U.S.
officials say that financial leverage may be key to pressuring the Taliban into
abiding by its peace agreements.”

 

Asia Times: China Eying Afghan Rare Earth Windfall: Congressman
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“…Beijing is worried that the war-torn country could become a hideout for
China’s minority Uyghur separatists and that its economic interests will be
undermined by continued violence within Afghanistan. “If the Taliban can
provide China stable operating conditions, then the copper operations alone
potentially could produce tens of billions of dollars of revenue, spurring the
development of mining operations for other minerals in the country,” Tanchum
said. Security will not likely improve overnight, and corruption — which
remains rife and reportedly exacerbated the Taliban’s speedy capture of the
country — could continue to stymie foreign investment. Afghanistan’s
infrastructure and legal system also remain woefully lacking. “One of the main
problems was that you were unable to get the resources out of the country
without a private army to secure them against the Taliban,” said Hans-Jakob
Schindler, senior director at the Counter Extremism Project. “Now, that threat
has gone, but the infrastructure … is still not there, so they will need
large-scale investment.”

 

Metro: Taliban Chief Linked To Osama Bin Laden Poses ‘Heightened Threat’ To
The West
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“…According to the Counter Extremism Project (CEP), a New York-based think
tank, the network has received ‘extensive support’, including safe harbour and
access to weapons, from Pakistan’s intelligence services. The jihadi group once
had a close, ‘personal’ relationship with bin Laden, which included hosting
Al-Qaeda bases, separate analysis by Stanford University in California shows.
Sir Ivor, senior adviser to the CEP, said: ‘Founded by the notorious extremist
Jalaluddin Haqqani, the group is now run by his son Sirajuddin, who is already
being identified by security experts as a key powerbroker within the new
Taliban regime. ‘Under Sirajuddin’s leadership the Haqqani network has
significantly enhanced its cooperation with Al-Qaeda and other violent Islamist
groups in the region. ‘They are now widely regarded as a leading insurgency
force in South Asia, with intimate ties to Arab jihadist groups and the Inter
Services Intelligence, Pakistan’s intelligence agency, who have provided
sustenance and succour to the Taliban and affiliates like Haqqani from their
earliest days. ‘In his new seat of power, Sirajuddin will undoubtedly seek to
bolster the group’s terrorist activities. Western leaders must be prepared to
deal with the heightened threat he now poses, and cannot afford to be deluded
into believing they can trust Afghanistan’s new regime nor its affiliates like
the Haqqani group.’”

 

Newsweek: After Afghan Withdrawal Debacle, Biden's Counterterrorism Plan Draws
Fire
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“…Pessimists now worry that Al-Qaeda and indeed the entire Jihadi movement
will be energized by the Taliban's swift victory, and that new dangers will
emerge. Al-Qaeda leader Ayman al-Zawahiri has portrayed the Taliban's "Islamic
Emirate of Afghanistan'' as the cornerstone of a new caliphate, telling his
followers around the globe that they should emulate it as a model for Islamic
governance. "The international terrorist threats in both Afghanistan and
neighboring Pakistan will not disappear after America leaves," says Thomas
Joscelyn, a senior editor at the FDD's Long War Journal and a long time student
of Al-Qaeda and the Taliban. Worse, the fear is, in the age of "over the
horizon" counterterrorism, those threats will intensify. The notion that
Al-Qaeda in Afghanistan is eliminated is "dangerously mistaken," says Nathan
Sales, former ambassador at large for Counterterrorism at the State Department
during the Trump administration, now on the advisory board at the Counter
Extremism Project, a nonpartisan New York-based think tank. "The minute you
take the pressure off, you give the networks space to reconstitute themselves,"
Sales says. "They are not done. They are going to reconstitute themselves, if
we give them the space."

 

WTOP News: The Hunt: Will The Taliban Allow Terrorists Inside Afghanistan
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“…The Taliban have suggested that it has shed it old habits. Few people really
believe them. On this week’s episode of “The Hunt, with WTOP National Security
Correspondent J.J. Green,” Dr. Hans-Jakob Schindler, senior director of the
Counter Extremism Project says the Taliban are unlikely to turn their back on
Al Qaida.”

 

Pakistan

 

Foreign Policy: A Taliban Takeover Will Strengthen Pakistan’s Jihadis
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“Despite helping the Taliban to revive their Islamist insurgency and
ultimately win the war, Pakistan was always reticent about the revival of the
group’s self-styled Islamic Emirate in Afghanistan. Pakistan articulated this
position at an April meeting with U.S., Chinese, and Russian officials, where
it opposed, along with others, any government established by force in
Afghanistan. The announcement left the Taliban, who expected outright support
from Pakistan, angry and alienated. To add insult to injury, Pakistan’s
National Security Committee decided on Aug. 16 against immediately recognizing
the Taliban government and urged for an inclusive government representing all
Afghan factions. Despite helping the Taliban to revive their Islamist
insurgency and ultimately win the war, Pakistan was always reticent about the
revival of the group’s self-styled Islamic Emirate in Afghanistan. Pakistan
articulated this position at an April meeting with U.S., Chinese, and Russian
officials, where it opposed, along with others, any government established by
force in Afghanistan. The announcement left the Taliban, who expected outright
support from Pakistan, angry and alienated. To add insult to injury, Pakistan’s
National Security Committee decided on Aug. 16 against immediately recognizing
the Taliban government and urged for an inclusive government representing all
Afghan factions.”

 

Middle East

 

Axios: Gulf States Wary Afghanistan Crisis Could Trigger Refugee Flows, Terror
Threats
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“The scenes of panic at Kabul airport have been uncomfortable to watch for
many people in the Gulf. Why it matters: Governments in the region,
particularly the UAE, have supported NATO’s mission and provided Afghanistan
with aid, building up ties with successive governments in Kabul over the years
since the 2001 U.S.-led invasion. Now Gulf countries are concerned about the
possible implications of the renewed instability in Afghanistan — refugee
flows, a humanitarian crisis and a potential renewal of civil war — for the
security of the wider region. There are also concerns that terror groups such
as ISIS and al-Qaeda could again flourish in the resulting chaos. America's
status as a steadfast ally for Gulf governments is now also under more scrutiny
than before. Biden’s speech on Monday night, in which he argued that the U.S.
should move on from Afghanistan to focus on more pressing national security
concerns like China, cast some doubt on his administration’s appetite for a
continuing role in the Middle East. State of play: The Gulf Cooperation
Council, chaired by Bahrain, said it would discuss the situation in
Afghanistan, which has developed at a dizzying speed.”

 

Egypt

 

The Jerusalem Post: Security Council: Terror Threat Level Drops At Egyptian
Beaches
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“The terror threat level of the Egyptian beaches Sharm El-Sheikh and Sinai
have dropped from 1 to 3, Israel's National Security Council (NSC) announced on
Wednesday. The subject has come up in Prime Minister Naftali Bennett's meeting
with Egyptian Intelligence head Abbas Kamel on Wednesday. NSC has also noted
northern Sinai's terror threat level has remained at 1 (the highest).”

 

Nigeria

 

Council On Foreign Relations: Boko Haram Defections Spike In Nigeria And
Cameroon
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“More than one thousand members of Boko Haram have surrendered to the Nigerian
army in recent weeks, along with hundreds of women and children that presumably
made up their family units. The Cameroonian authorities, too, have announced
that at least eighty-two Boko Haram operatives have surrendered or defected,
also with their families. According to the Cameroonian authorities many of the
Boko Haram defectors are Nigerian; several are also Chadian. The Nigerian army
attributes the surrenders and defections to a “recent escalation of offensive
operations.” Perhaps. However, the stream of surrenders and defections has
escalated since the death in May of Boko Haram leader Abubakar Shekau, which
was both a result of and a catalyst for the ongoing consolidation of Lake Chad
Basin jihadi groups under the Islamic State in West Africa (ISWA). There is the
possibility that the defections and surrenders are among those who were on the
losing side or who cannot accept the new leadership. Nevertheless, Boko Haram
defections could be good news for the beleaguered people of the Lake Chad
Basin—including parts of Cameroon, Chad, Niger, and northern Nigeria—if they
lead to a reduction of violence.”

 

Africa

 

Reuters: Dozens Die In Burkina Faso As Islamist Militants Raid Convoy
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“Dozens of people were killed in northern Burkina Faso on Wednesday when
Islamist militants raided a civilian convoy that was being escorted by military
police, the latest in a spate of attacks across West Africa's Sahel region this
month. President Roch Kabore ordered three days of national mourning following
the attack on the road between Gorgadji and Arbinda, one of Burkina Faso's most
volatile zones. Thirty civilians, 14 military police and three pro-government
militiamen were killed, while 30 people were wounded, the government said in a
statement. It added that 58 militants were killed in the ensuing clashes with
security forces. Militants linked to al Qaeda and Islamic State regularly carry
out attacks in Burkina Faso and neighbouring Mali and Niger, killing hundreds
of civilians this year alone. Violence in the Sahel, a semi-arid band beneath
the Sahara Desert, has continued to intensify despite the presence of thousands
of U.N., regional and Western troops and efforts by some governments to
negotiate with the militants. Armed men killed at least 12 soldiers last week
in northwestern Burkina Faso as well as 30 civilians, soldiers and
pro-government militiamen days before that. In Niger, armed men on Monday
killed 37 civilians, including 14 children, in an attack on a village.”

 

Bloomberg: Southern Africa Bloc Plan Joint Anti-Terror Body, Central Bank
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“Heads of state of the Southern African Development Community agreed to
establish a regional counter terrorism center amid an Islamist insurgency in
Mozambique’s northern region. SADC nations including Lesotho, Zimbabwe and
Botswana have deployed troops to help Mozambique fight back the Islamic
State-linked militants in the Cabo Delgado province. The four-year insurgency
has displaced 800,000 people and forced TotalEnergies SE to suspend work on a
$20 billion natural gas project. Tanzania offered to host the body that will
offer strategic advisory services to the 16-country bloc, according to a
statement issued at a summit of the leaders. The nations also plan to create a
regional central bank and monetary union. “The African Monetary Institute and
the African Central Bank should be long-term objectives,” according to the
statement.”

 

Australia

 

The Age: Far-Right Extremists Still Downloading Christchurch Massacre Footage
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“Dozens of Australians are still downloading vision of the Christchurch
terrorist’s attack and manifesto along with other far-right extremist material,
according to a counter-terror probe. A confidential federal police online
tracking project examining right wing radicalisation and peer-to-peer websites
estimated that almost three quarters of the most popular extremist files shared
involved abhorrent right-wing content. Most of those were linked to the
Christchurch terrorist attack in March 2019. The findings support remarks this
week by ASIO director-general Mike Burgess that Australia’s neo-Nazi cells and
other ideologically inspired groups are growing, fuelled by online propaganda
about race and COVID-19. The proliferation of extremist material in the dark
corners of the internet also raises questions about the effectiveness of the
federal government’s efforts to force tech companies to remove and report
extremist material from their online platforms. The rise of the white supremacy
movement and neo-Nazism in Australia was exposed this week after The Age, The
Sydney Morning Herald and 60 Minutes published the first part of an eight-month
investigation. It included an undercover operation to infiltrate the nation’s
largest white supremacist group, the National Socialist Network.”

 

Technology

 

USA Today: Fact Check: Social Media Users Misinterpret DHS Terrorism Bulletin
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“A new Department of Homeland Security terrorism advisory includes COVID-19
and election misinformation on a list of issues that could inspire future
violence. On social media, some took that to mean the agency was calling them
terrorists. “Behavior the White House and DHS deemed as terrorism today!
Resisting Covid regulations, opposing government, spreading ‘misinformation,’
thinking the election was rigged,” reads text in an Aug. 14 Instagram post by
the conservative social media agency Voiceban. “I think this makes us all
terrorists?” The post accumulated more than 5,000 likes within three days.
Posts raising similar concerns, shared alongside a screengrab of an NBC Nightly
News broadcast, have also gone viral online.  In an emailed statement defending
the post, the Instagram user reiterated the claim that DHS is “suggesting that
anyone that anyone (sic) that has an opinion that doesnt meet their narrative
is a domestic terrorist.” They added, “The government and all branches working
for the government is out to destroy Republicans.” But this line of thinking
misinterprets the advisory. The DHS included issues like COVID-19 and election
misinformation as points of tension that could escalate to violence.”

 

The Federalist: Big Tech Oligarchs Won’t Punish Terrorists, So Who Will?
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“While corporate media publish stories defending Big Tech’s compliance in
allowing terrorists to operate on their sites, others have noted the hypocrisy
it takes to ban the leader of a free country from the platform and then turn a
blind eye to murderous terrorists who use the technology to accomplish their
goals. Just a few months after Twitter, Facebook, and other Big Tech companies
banded together to ban President Donald Trump, more than 40 GOP House members
introduced legislation aimed at using sanction law to force Silicon Valley
giants to ban foreign terrorist groups from their platform. At the time, the
bill’s cosponsors such as Reps. Andy Barr, Jim Banks, and Joe Wilson made it
clear that the double-standard held by tech oligarchs was allowing
anti-American groups to spread propaganda and fundraise for their causes
without penalty. “U.S. law gives big tech a free pass to provide platforms to
terrorist groups and dictators,” Barr told Fox News in March. “Social media
companies should not provide a vehicle for terrorist groups like ISIS to raise
money or for dictators like the Ayatollah of Iran to spread propaganda.” It is
unclear, however, if the bill will resurface in light of the Taliban’s recent
takeover in Afghanistan.”



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