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Daily News Brief
October 18, 2019
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Top of the Agenda
Turkey Agrees to Pause Syria Offensive
U.S. Vice President Mike Pence and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan negotiated a five-day pause (Al Jazeera) in Turkey’s incursion into northern Syria, allowing Kurdish fighters to leave the area in exchange for U.S. sanctions relief.
 
Under the agreement, Kurdish fighters who assisted U.S. efforts against the self-proclaimed Islamic State in the region would have 120 hours to clear a corridor along the Syria-Turkey border. Erdogan said Turkey plans to resettle (Reuters) up to two million Syrian refugees there. Despite the truce, fighting between Turkish and Kurdish forces continued today (NYT).
Analysis
“The agreement was fraught with questions because it was silent on two critical points: the width of the proposed safe zone, which varied from 70 miles to over 300 miles, and Washington’s ability to help enforce a cease-fire as U.S. troops have left combat areas,” Sune Engel Rasmussen and Raja Abdulrahim write for the Wall Street Journal.
 
“What the US was doing in northern Syria was smart and efficient. Kurdish forces assumed the bulk of the combat role against ISIS; the US contribution was modest and largely confined to advising and providing intelligence support. Moreover, the US presence restrained the actions of the Turks, Syrians, Russians, and Iranians. With the withdrawal of US troops, that restraint disappeared overnight,” CFR President Richard N. Haass writes for Project Syndicate.
 
CFR’s Max Boot writes that the North Atlantic Treaty Organization’s ties with Turkey must change.

 

Pacific Rim
Indonesia’s Widodo to be Sworn in for Second Term
Counterterrorism forces arrested forty people ahead of this weekend’s inauguration (AP) of President Joko Widodo. He is expected to name a new cabinet (Bloomberg) that may include opposition figures as he works to push through economic reforms.
 
In CFR’s Asia Unbound blog, Joshua Kurlantzick discusses what to expect from Widodo’s second term.
 
China: The government scrapped a measure that required caregivers for the elderly to have formal education (Reuters), as the country faces a labor shortage.

 

South and Central Asia
Civilian Deaths in Afghanistan Reach Ten-Year High
A UN report found that the number of civilian casualties from July to September was the highest since the organization began taking the tally in 2009. More than eight thousand people were killed in the first nine months of this year.
 
CFR’s Global Conflict Tracker traces the latest developments in the war in Afghanistan.
 
Pakistan: Steven Butler, the Asia coordinator for the Committee to Protect Journalists, was barred from entering the country (Dawn) by immigration officials, who said his name was on an interior ministry blacklist.

 

Middle East and North Africa
Lebanon Cabinet Meeting Cancelled Amid Nationwide Protest
Protesters returned to Lebanon’s streets today amid a worsening economic crisis (Al Jazeera). The protests continued despite the government’s reversal of a plan to tax voice calls on WhatsApp, and a cabinet meeting has reportedly been cancelled (Reuters).

 

Sub-Saharan Africa
South Africa Approves Energy Plan Amid Blackouts
As the country experienced power cuts for the third day, the energy minister announced a plan for electricity generation through 2030. According to the plan, 59 percent of energy (Reuters) will come from coal. 
 
CFR’s Energy Realpolitik blog discusses how South Africa’s blackouts demonstrate the need for distributed energy resources.
 
Burundi: A government crackdown on illegal currency trading (Reuters) has led to forty arrests, according to the ministry of public security.

 

Europe
UK Parliament to Hold Special Session on Brexit Deal
The draft deal agreed between British Prime Minister Boris Johnson and European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker was approved by EU leaders (FT) yesterday and will be considered in the UK House of Commons on Saturday.
 
Geneva: The UN General Assembly voted to add Venezuela (NYT) to its Human Rights Council, despite concerns about the country’s human rights record. Libya and Sudan were also among the newly admitted countries with questionable records.

 

Americas
Mexican City Besieged After El Chapo’s Son Arrested
Men shot at police (LA Times) and blocked streets with flaming barricades in Culiacan after authorities arrested the son of Joaquin “El Chapo” Guzman. Security forces later released him.
 
Bolivia: President Evo Morales is seeking a fourth term in the country’s presidential elections to be held (Guardian) on Sunday.

 

United States
Trump Says G7 Will Occur at His Resort
President Donald J. Trump announced the 2020 Group of Seven summit will be held at the Trump National Resort (CNN) in Florida, prompting criticism that he is using the meeting to benefit his business.
Friday Editor’s Pick
Reuters uncovers a multinational investigation into the suspected boss of a vast drug network in Asia.
 
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