The evacuation from Afghanistan is proving one of the most distressing and dramatic scenes in recent memory. Harrowing images from Kabul’s airport have shown thousands of Afghans desperately trying to flee the country, including in some cases by clinging to the outsides of departing aircraft. The scene is chaotic; multiple people died Monday, including some who fell from the wheel well of an airborne military cargo jet.

The situation underscores the profoundness of the moment for Afghans who worked with the U.S. military and its allies, would-be migrants, and the global diaspora. Dozens of nations have called for foreign nationals and Afghans who want to leave their country to be allowed to do so.

But the situation on the ground is much more complicated. Taliban forces control all of Afghanistan’s ground border crossings, meaning the airport—which remains heavily guarded by U.S. troops—is the only way out for those who want to escape. Among those are diplomats, aid workers, and other foreign nationals who have been hastily airlifted from the country since the Taliban’s unexpectedly rapid conquest in recent days. Yet the future is uncertain for tens of thousands of Afghans who supported Western governments, worked for nongovernmental organizations, or who otherwise might face reprisal under the Islamist leaders.

My colleagues Muzaffar Chishti and Julia Gelatt recently examined the challenges facing the U.S. Special Immigrant Visa (SIV) program, which since 2006 has brought nearly 77,000 Afghans to the United States but has nonetheless been beset by processing delays and backlogs. The Biden administration is reportedly scrambling to safeguard thousands of Afghans who have applied for SIVs for themselves and their families, but the scenes at the airport suggest that there are many fraught moments ahead.

European countries are under similar pressures. Countries including the United Kingdom and Portugal have expressed willingness to resettle Afghans in need. But leaders are also looking to prevent a repeat of the migration crisis of 2015 and 2016; French President Emmanuel Macron on Monday said his country “must anticipate and protect ourselves against major irregular migratory flows.” Meanwhile, the UN High Commissioner for Refugees has called on countries to suspend returns of asylum seekers with unsuccessful applications.  

It is clear that Afghanistan is at a turning point, but what comes next remains uncertain. The overwhelming majority of displaced Afghans remain within the country, but several million others who fled during prior decades of conflict are in neighboring countries, primarily Pakistan and Iran. These and other countries in the region may face new pressures from a Taliban-led Afghanistan. The United States is ending its 20-year military engagement, but the story in Afghanistan is by no means over.

Best regards,
Julian Hattem
Editor, Migration Information Source
[email protected]