Council on Foreign Relations
Daily News Brief
August 11, 2021
Top of the Agenda
Abiy Calls ‘All Capable Ethiopians’ to Fight Tigrayan Rebels
Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed called for “all capable Ethiopians” to join government forces (WaPo) in a conflict against rebels that began in the Tigray region but has recently spread to the neighboring Amhara and Afar regions. Abiy’s appeal comes despite calls for de-escalation from the United States, the United Nations, and other governments and Abiy’s own declaration of a unilateral cease-fire (AFP) less than two months ago.

The government’s battle against militias from the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF), a party that ruled the country for three decades, has caused a humanitarian catastrophe. At least seven hundred thousand people face emergency levels of hunger, according to the United Nations. An Amnesty International report found that Ethiopian troops and their Eritrean partners have raped hundreds of women and girls (AFP). On Sunday, Sudan said Ethiopia had rejected its offer to mediate (FT) the conflict.
Analysis
“His legacy, at least, is secure. Mr. Abiy will forever be the Nobel Peace laureate who refused to give peace a chance,” the Addis Standard’s Tsedale Lemma writes for the New York Times.

“From potential state collapse to humanitarian catastrophe to the very real risk of genocide, a host of reasons compel a more resolute international response [to the conflict in Tigray]. That response should provide antagonists confidence that a true ceasefire does not mean surrendering to certain slaughter or siege, political space to dial down incendiary rhetoric and get armed ethnic forces out of the driver’s seat, and certainty about the high costs of pressing real or perceived advantages to prolong the conflict,” CFR’s Michelle Gavin writes for the Africa in Transition blog.

Pacific Rim
China Sentences Canadian Convicted of Spying
A Chinese court sentenced Canadian businessman Michael Spavor (SCMP) to eleven years in prison for espionage in a case that is widely seen as retaliation for Canada’s arrest of a Huawei executive wanted by the United States. Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau called the ruling “absolutely unacceptable and unjust.”
 
Hong Kong: The city’s largest teachers’ union disbanded (SCMP) after authorities threatened to investigate it for potential breaches of Hong Kong’s national security law. The union published teaching materials on civil disobedience in recent years.

South and Central Asia
Taliban Seizes Three More Provincial Capitals
The Taliban seized the capitals (NYT) of Badakhshan, Baghlan, and Farah Provinces yesterday, bringing the total number of capitals seized to nine in less than a week. The group has ramped up its offensive in Afghanistan as talks on the country’s security take place in Qatar this week.
 
In Time, CFR’s Gayle Tzemach Lemmon discusses what could come next for Afghan women.
 
Tajikistan: Russia, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan completed joint military exercises (RFE/RL) near Tajikistan’s border with Afghanistan. Russia has pledged to defend the former Soviet countries against security threats emanating from Afghanistan.

Middle East and North Africa
Former Iranian Official Tried in Sweden for War Crimes
The trial of former Iranian official Hamid Noury began (Al Jazeera) in Sweden. Noury, who has been in custody in Sweden for almost two years, is being tried for his role in the execution of political prisoners during the Iran-Iraq War of the 1980s. His trial marks the first time someone accused of participating in the killings has appeared before a court.
 
Israel/Morocco: Israeli Foreign Minister Yair Lapid is set to inaugurate a new Israeli liaison office (Haaretz) in Morocco’s capital, Rabat, on his first visit to the country since Israel and Morocco normalized ties last year.
 
At this virtual event, CFR’s Martin S. Indyk joins experts Dalia Dassa Kaye and Daniel B. Shapiro to discuss Israel’s normalization of ties with Morocco and other Arab countries.
This Day in History: August 11, 1960
Chad gains independence from France with Francois Tombalbaye as its first president, but peace and stability prove elusive and the country is wracked by nearly forty years of violence.

Sub-Saharan Africa
Chad’s President Invites Rebels to National Dialogue
Chad’s transitional military president, Mahamat Idriss Deby, invited armed opposition groups (Reuters) to participate in a dialogue before the next elections, reversing previous statements that the government would not hold such talks.
 
For the Africa in Transition blog, CFR’s John Campbell looks at how the death of Deby’s father, Chad’s previous president, threw the country into uncertainty.

Europe
Poland’s Ruling Coalition Collapses
Poland’s right-wing ruling coalition collapsed (AP) after a small party departed the partnership in a dispute over a media bill it sees as a threat to freedom of expression. The bill, which is set for a vote today, would bar non-Europeans from owning major stakes in Polish media firms.
 
Brussels: Austria, Belgium, Denmark, Germany, Greece, and the Netherlands called on the European Union to press Afghanistan to accept deported asylum seekers (Al Jazeera) after Kabul said it would stop accepting deportees for three months. Finland, Norway, and Sweden, however, said they would halt deportations to Afghanistan given its security crisis. 

Americas
Brazilian Congress Rejects Bill to Alter Voting System
Brazil’s Congress rejected a proposal (DW) backed by President Jair Bolsonaro that would alter the country’s electronic voting system ahead of presidential elections next year. Bolsonaro ordered a military parade to take place in the nation’s capital ahead of Congress’s vote.
 
Colombia: The country’s transitional justice court, which weighs abuses committed during Colombia’s decades-long internal conflict, said the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC) recruited over eighteen thousand children (Al Jazeera) to serve in its ranks over a twenty-year period.

United States
New York Governor Resigns Amid Sexual Harassment Scandal
New York Governor Andrew Cuomo said he would resign (NYT) after an investigation by the state attorney general concluded that he sexually harassed nearly a dozen women. Lieutenant Governor Kathy Hochul will replace him in fourteen days, making her the first woman to hold New York’s governorship.
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